Gold & silver daily report · 2026-10-30

Gold, silver, GLD and SLV all remain below falling 200-day averages, so all four regimes are Bear. Gold sits about 1.6% below its technical Cheap/Fair line, while silver is deeply technical Cheap and RSI14 is oversold. High real yields, roughly 5% nominal yields and a high dollar remain restrictive. Official holdings show a GLD decline and unchanged SLV holdings.

Cheap/Fair/Hot describes technical position versus SMA200, not intrinsic value. Spot, futures and ETFs are kept separate.

1. Prices and ETF mapping

Observed mappings are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09229 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.92006. They are scenario estimates, not arbitrage conversions. FMP quote was available. FMP commodity returned explicitly labelled Gold Futures $4,004.50 and Silver Futures $51.42 around 03:35 UTC; these are futures-only cross-checks and are never presented as spot.

Sources: Gold API gold ↗, Gold API silver ↗, Trading Economics gold ↗, Trading Economics silver ↗, Yahoo Finance ↗.

2. Regime, current zone and technical bands

Rule: price and SMA50 below a falling SMA200 is Bear; both above a rising SMA200 is Bull; otherwise Transition. Cheap is below 0.90×SMA200, Fair is 0.90–1.05×, Hot is above 1.05×. Spot bands use same-date futures averages translated by the current spot/futures basis and are labelled SPOT_PROXY.

There is no forced-regime classification gap today. Gold is relatively near the zone boundary, so a small timing or basis change could alter Cheap/Fair without changing the Bear regime.

3. Price stage

Gold / GLD. GC=F completed October 29 at $4,003.50, SMA50 $4,307.69, SMA200 $4,522.86; SMA200 fell 0.67% over 20 sessions. It sits at 3.2% of its 52-week range, 24.7% below the high, with RSI14 34.0, five-day -1.4% and 20-day -4.7%. GLD closed $368.57, versus SMA50 $391.76 and SMA200 $413.27; RSI14 38.5. Spot support is $3,990 / about $3,960 and resistance $4,060.51 / about $4,297. GLD support is $366.97 / $362.32 and resistance $371.94 / $391.76. This is a low Bear stage: hold strategic diversification, stage new risk, and stop tactical additions on a new 52-week low.

Silver / SLV. SI=F completed October 29 at $51.440, SMA50 $62.091, SMA200 $71.087; SMA200 fell 2.12% over 20 sessions. It sits at 6.3% of its 52-week range, 55.3% below the high, with RSI14 26.3, five-day -6.1% and 20-day -15.3%. SLV closed $47.28, SMA50 $56.16, SMA200 $64.43, RSI14 29.1. Spot support is $51.15 / $50 / about $47.13; resistance $52.3 / $62.09 / $63.91. SLV support is $46.92 / $42.74; resistance $49.06 / $56.16 / $57.99. Oversold can produce a rebound but does not establish reversal.

4. Gold/silver ratio

The synchronous spot ratio is 77.71. The five-year GC=F/SI=F distribution has a 10th percentile of 66.24, 20th of 75.77, median 83.92, 80th of 88.61 and 90th of 90.80. The October 29 completed futures ratio was 77.83, at about the 25.5th percentile. Silver is low-Fair relative to gold, but not cheap. Technical cheapness and relative cheapness are different.

5. Macro environment

• FRED 10Y TIPS real yield: 2.67%, observation 2026-10-28, previous 2.64%.
• FRED nominal 10Y: 5.05%, observation 2026-10-28; Yahoo ^TNX completed October 29 at 4.989%.
• DXY proxy DX-Y.NYB: 101.777 on October 29; SMA50 100.750, SMA200 99.616, about 0.8% below its 52-week high.
• NFCI: -0.487 for 2026-10-23, from -0.494; negative remains looser than historical average but tightened marginally.

The macro mix is restrictive for non-yielding metals. Loose NFCI offers only partial relief. Series frequencies differ and are not treated as one synchronous snapshot. Sources: FRED DFII10 ↗, FRED DGS10 ↗, FRED NFCI ↗.

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: official SPDR archive shows 1,043.36 tonnes on October 28 → 1,041.08 tonnes on October 29, down 2.28 tonnes. Two dated official observations support direction, but this is HOLDINGS_PROXY, not exact dollar flow.
• SLV: official iShares data shows 15,541.85 tonnes, 499.682Moz and 553.30M shares on October 29, unchanged from October 28; October 29 NAV was $47.32. Unchanged holdings cannot be called an inflow or outflow.
• WGC monthly context: September global gold ETFs added about US$10bn / 67 tonnes, taking holdings to 4,256 tonnes as of September 30. This is slow monthly context, not daily GLD flow.

Sources: SPDR archive ↗, iShares SLV ↗, WGC ETF flows ↗.

7. Slow supply-demand variables

WGC reported roughly 289 tonnes of Q2 2026 central-bank buying and about 345 tonnes for H1. H1 was the lowest since 2022, but reserve diversification remains a strategic support. The World Silver Survey 2026 estimates 639.6Moz industrial demand, 151.0Moz photovoltaic demand and a 46.3Moz market deficit, the sixth consecutive deficit. PV demand was forecast down about 19% year over year: thrifting, copper substitution and declining silver intensity constrain any linear installation-to-price extrapolation. These slow variables support the year-plus thesis but do not override the current Bear regime or prove a unique intrinsic value. Sources: WGC central banks ↗, World Silver Survey 2026 ↗.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenarios

Timing, fees, cash, tracking error and premium/discount can move realized ETF prices away from these estimates.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: gold is near its 52-week low and silver is oversold. Use small staged entries, not a one-shot bottom call. First tests are gold $4,060.51, silver $52.3, GLD $371.94 and SLV $49.06.
• Cyclical, months: gold around $4,297 and GLD $391.76; silver $62.09–63.91 and SLV $56.16–57.99 are Bear-to-Transition candidates, still requiring multiple closes and holdings confirmation.
• Strategic, year+: central-bank demand and reserve diversification support a core gold allocation. Silver's deficit creates more upside elasticity but PV thrifting, substitution, cyclicality and volatility call for a smaller satellite allocation.

10. Action map and data health

• Gold holding about $3,960 and reclaiming $4,060.51 permits small staged additions; below $3,960 pause additions; above about $4,297 is stronger repair.
• GLD support $366.97 / $362.32; reclaiming $371.94 exits technical Cheap; $391.76 is the medium-term test.
• Silver holding $50 and breaking $52.3 permits only controlled probes; $62.09–63.91 is needed to add risk; below about $47.13 slow further.
• SLV support $46.92 / $42.74; $49.06 is the first reclaim and $56.16–57.99 is medium-term repair.
• If DFII10 approaches 3%, ^TNX holds above 5.1% and DXY breaks 102.58, tighten new-risk conditions further.

Data health: FMP quote and commodity endpoints worked; commodities were futures-only cross-checks. Gold API and Trading Economics provided October 30 spot cross-checks. Yahoo technical series use completed October 29 bars. FRED DFII10/DGS10 end October 28 and NFCI October 23; official GLD and SLV holdings end October 29. No critical price is older than one trading day, so STALE_CRITICAL is not triggered. Futures were not presented as spot, holdings as cash flow, or technical cheapness as intrinsic-value discount.