Gold & silver daily report · 2026-10-29

Gold, silver, GLD and SLV remain below falling 200-day averages, so all four regimes are Bear. Gold spot is slightly below its technical-cheap threshold while GLD is slightly above it, creating a spot/ETF boundary split. Silver and SLV remain clearly technical Cheap. High real yields and a strong dollar remain restrictive, while latest official holdings increased for both GLD and SLV.

Cheap / Fair / Hot describes technical distance from SMA200, not a verified intrinsic-value discount. Spot, futures and ETF prices are kept separate.

1. Prices and ETF mapping

Observed mapping factors are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09239 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.91716. They are scenario estimates, not arbitrage conversions, and vary with timing, expenses, cash, tracking and premiums. FMP quote access worked today. FMP commodity quotes were explicitly GCUSD Gold Futures $4,060.60 and SIUSD Silver Futures $53.75 around 03:37 UTC; they are futures cross-checks only and are never presented as spot.

2. Regimes, zones and exact technical bands

A Bear regime requires price and SMA50 below a falling SMA200; Bull requires both above a rising SMA200; otherwise the classification is Transition. Cheap is below 0.90×SMA200, Fair is 0.90–1.05×, and Hot is above 1.05×. Spot bands are SPOT_PROXY values scaled from GC=F / SI=F by the current spot-futures basis.

Classification gap: gold spot is 0.53% below Cheap while GLD is 0.36% above it. This is a timing, basis and premium/discount boundary split, not a trend contradiction. The Bear regimes are clear, but the gold/GLD zone labels are low-confidence boundary readings.

3. Price stage

Gold / GLD. GC=F closed October 28 at $4,051.60, with SMA50 $4,318.53, SMA200 $4,525.84, and a 20-session SMA200 slope of -0.64%. It sits at 8.9% of its 52-week range, 27.5% below the high; RSI14 is 37.5, five-day return -2.4%, 20-day -3.2%. GLD closed $373.51 versus SMA50 $392.67 and SMA200 $413.54; 52-week position 9.0%, drawdown 26.7%, RSI14 42.6, five-day -1.4%, 20-day -1.9%. Gold support is $4,000 and the basis-scaled 52-week low near $3,893; resistance is $4,064 then about $4,309. GLD support is $368.88 / $360.12; resistance $392.67 / $413.54. This remains Bear-regime repair, favoring hold and staged additions over chasing.

Silver / SLV. SI=F closed October 28 at $53.457, with SMA50 $62.377, SMA200 $71.259, and a 20-session SMA200 slope of -1.91%. It sits at 9.5% of its 52-week range, 55.9% below the high; RSI14 is 30.5, five-day return -6.9%, 20-day -11.1%. SLV closed $49.06 versus SMA50 $56.42 and SMA200 $64.59; 52-week position 10.1%, drawdown 55.3%, RSI14 33.6, five-day -6.1%, 20-day -10.0%. Silver support is about $53.2 / $50 / $46.35; resistance is $54, about $62.42 and $64.17. SLV support is $48.12 / $42.23; resistance $50 / $56.42 / $58.13. Near-oversold conditions can produce rebounds, but no medium-term reversal is confirmed.

4. Gold/silver ratio

The same-time Gold API spot ratio is 75.58. The five-year GC=F/SI=F reference distribution is 66.24 at the 10th percentile, 75.76 at the 20th, 83.92 median, 88.61 at the 80th, and 90.80 at the 90th. The completed October 28 futures ratio was 75.79, at roughly the 20.2nd percentile.

Below about 75.76, silver is relatively expensive versus gold; 75.76–88.61 is broadly Fair; above 88.61 silver is relatively Cheap. Spot remains just expensive while the completed futures ratio just crossed into Fair, a roughly 0.2-point classification gap. The honest conclusion is expensive/Fair boundary, not relatively cheap; a sustained ratio above 76 would make silver neutral.

5. Macro conditions

FRED 10-year TIPS real yield was 2.64% on October 27, down from 2.66%. FRED nominal 10-year yield was 4.99% on October 27; Yahoo ^TNX closed October 28 at 5.045%. DX-Y.NYB closed October 28 at 102.19, above SMA50 100.69 and SMA200 99.60 and about 0.74% below its 52-week high. NFCI was -0.487 for October 23, versus -0.494, still looser than its historical average.

The macro backdrop is restrictive, with partial relief: real yields remain high, nominal 10-year yields are near 5% and the dollar is above both major averages, while the small real-yield decline and negative NFCI soften the pressure. Frequencies differ, so these are dated observations rather than a synchronous snapshot.

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD official archive: 1,041.65 tonnes on October 27 → 1,043.36 tonnes on October 28, up 1.71 tonnes. Two official dated observations support direction, but this is HOLDINGS_PROXY, not exact dollar cash flow.
• SLV official page: 15,541.85 tonnes, 499.682Moz and 553.30M shares on October 28; versus October 27, this is about +42.12 tonnes / +1.35Moz / +1.50M shares. October 28 NAV was $48.54. These are official holdings observations, not daily cash-flow facts.
• WGC monthly background: September 2026 global gold ETFs added about US$10bn / 67 tonnes, with holdings at 4,256 tonnes as of September 30. This is slow monthly context, not October 28 GLD flow.

Latest official holdings direction is positive for both GLD and SLV. Holdings changes, subscriptions and trading volume are distinct concepts.

7. Slow supply and demand

WGC reported about 289 tonnes of Q2 2026 central-bank net gold purchases and about 345 tonnes for H1. First-half buying was the lowest since 2022, but reserve diversification and stated purchase intentions remain strategic support. The World Silver Survey 2026 estimates industrial demand near 639.6Moz, photovoltaic demand 151.0Moz, and a 46.3Moz market deficit, the sixth consecutive deficit year. PV demand remains important, but the 2026 forecast is about 19% lower year over year; thrifting, copper substitution and lower silver intensity limit linear extrapolation. These slow variables do not override the Bear regime or prove one intrinsic value.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenarios

Actual ETF prices vary with observation timing, fees, cash, tracking and premiums/discounts.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: gold and GLD straddle the Cheap/Fair boundary; watch $4,064 and GLD $372.18. Silver is near oversold and official holdings rose, but five- and 20-day momentum remains weak, so avoid one-shot bottom fishing.
• Cyclical, months: gold above about $4,309 and GLD above $392.67; silver above $62.42–64.17 and SLV above $56.42–58.13 would create Bear-to-Transition candidates, still requiring multiple closes and holdings confirmation.
• Strategic, year+: central-bank demand and reserve diversification support gold as a core diversifier. Silver's deficit adds upside elasticity, but PV thrifting, substitution, cyclicality and volatility argue for a smaller controlled satellite allocation.

10. Action map and data health

• Gold sustaining $4,064 permits small staged additions; below $4,000 and then about $3,893, pause additions and reduce tactical risk; above $4,309 is stronger medium-term repair.
• GLD must hold $372.18 to remain in Fair; support is $368.88 / $360.12; above $392.67 is clearer medium-term repair.
• Silver holding $53.2 and breaking $54 permits only a controlled probe; above $62.42 improves the signal and above $64.17 permits more risk; below $50 reduces risk appetite.
• SLV support is $48.12 / $42.23; reclaiming $50 is step one, while $56.42–58.13 marks medium-term repair and exit from Cheap.
• If DFII10 approaches 3%, ^TNX holds above 5.1%, and DXY breaks 102.95, tighten precious-metals risk conditions further.

Data health: FMP quote and commodity endpoints worked today; commodity values are futures-only cross-checks. Gold API and Trading Economics supplied October 29 spot cross-checks. Yahoo technical series use completed bars through October 28. FRED DFII10/DGS10 end October 27 and NFCI October 23. Official GLD and SLV holdings are dated October 28. No critical price is older than one trading day, so STALE_CRITICAL is not triggered. Futures are not labeled spot, holdings proxies are not called cash flows, and technical cheapness is not called intrinsic-value discount.

Sources: Gold API ↗, Trading Economics ↗, Yahoo Finance ↗, FRED ↗, SPDR GLD ↗, iShares SLV ↗, World Gold Council ↗, World Silver Survey 2026 ↗.