Six lines · six judgments
One quote, one working rule.
English lines are excerpts from Buffett's shareholder letters; Chinese is our translation. Each card turns the quote into a question to ask yourself while researching.
01 / OWNERSHIPA stock is a business.
“我们选择上市股票的方式，与评估是否收购整家公司基本相同。”
“We select our marketable equity securities in much the same way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety.”
Don't start with tomorrow's price. Start with what the company sells, who pays, and where profit and cash come from. If you would buy a slice of the whole business at the same price, you have a reason to own the stock.
Ask in researchIf the market closed for five years, would I still want to own this business?
Berkshire 1977 letter ↗02 / COMPETENCESwing only inside your circle.
“能力圈有多大并不重要；知道它的边界至关重要。”
“The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”
What matters is not how many industries you cover, but where your edge ends. If you cannot explain the revenue drivers, cost structure and competitive shifts, you cannot credibly estimate future cash flow. You may keep watching a business you don't understand — just don't pretend to understand it.
Ask in researchWhich variables drive the next decade of cash returns? Where do I actually not know?
Berkshire 1996 letter ↗03 / MOAT & MANAGEMENTLook for an edge that holds.
“真正伟大的企业必须有持久的护城河，保护其出色的资本回报。”
“A truly great business must have an enduring “moat” that protects excellent returns on invested capital.”
High profit is a result; find the cause. Do cost, brand, network effects or customer relationships keep competitors out? And does management stay honest and allocate retained earnings rationally? Without a durable edge, even beautiful current profits don't extrapolate.
Ask in researchWhy can't competitors take the customers? How has management spent money in the past?
Berkshire 2007 letter ↗04 / INTRINSIC VALUELeave a margin of safety.
“同样重要的是，我们坚持买入价格必须留有安全边际。”
“Second, and equally important, we insist on a margin of safety in our purchase price.”
Intrinsic value comes from the cash that may flow to owners in the future — not from a multiple for its own sake. Estimate a range under conservative assumptions and admit the forecast can be wrong; only a price clearly below the careful estimate leaves room for error.
Ask in researchIf cash flow disappoints, does the price I pay today still hold up?
Berkshire 1992 letter ↗05 / MR. MARKETLet Mr. Market serve you.
“市场先生是来为你服务的，而不是来指导你的。”
“Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you.”
Daily quotes create chances to buy and sell; they do not tell you what the business is worth. When the price falls, re-check the operating facts: if long-term value is unchanged, a lower price is not itself a reason to sell; if the thesis broke, “cheaper” is not a reason to add.
Ask in researchIs it the company's value that changed, or the market's mood?
Berkshire 1987 letter ↗06 / PATIENCENo good pitch, no swing.
“即使放过三个勉强擦到好球区的球，我们也不会被判出局。”
“Unlike Ted, we can't be called out if we resist three pitches that are barely in the strike zone…”
Investing does not demand an answer to every opportunity. A fine business at too high a price, or a cheap one outside your circle — both can simply wait. Spend your energy on the few where business, management and price all make sense at once.
Ask in researchIs acting now really more compelling than waiting?
Berkshire 1997 letter ↗