Gold & silver daily report · 2026-10-14

1. Executive conclusion and market snapshot

As of 10:35 Beijing time on 2026-10-14, spot gold was $4,163.20/oz (Gold-API, 02:35:46 UTC), cross-checked at $4,162.62 by Trading Economics. Spot silver was $59.332/oz (Gold-API, 02:35:45 UTC), versus $59.225 at Trading Economics. The gaps were about 0.01% and 0.18%. Futures are not presented as spot: FMP's tradable cross-checks were GCUSD $4,184.90 and SIUSD $59.415 at about 02:25 UTC.

For the latest completed session, 2026-10-13, GLD closed at $381.67 and SLV at $53.49 (FMP EOD, cross-checked against the Yahoo history series). Using those ETF closes and current spot, the mapping factors are 0.09168 for GLD/gold and 0.90154 for SLV/silver. These are price mappings, not promises of metal entitlement per share.

Bottom line: gold is in a low-confidence Bear regime and the lower part of its fair band. Silver futures are in Transition and technically cheap; SLV falls into very-low-confidence Bear, near the Transition boundary, and technically cheap. These labels are relative to the 200-day trend anchor, not intrinsic-value claims. The material change is a failed gold breakout above 4,216 and a silver break back below the prior 61.30 confirmation area. The chase setup has failed; tactical exposure should wait for a reclaim rather than treating “cheap” as an automatic buy signal.

2. Regime, exact bands, and what “cheap” means

The framework combines price versus the 200-day average with the 20-session slope of that average. Technical bands are 90% and 110% of the 200-day average. Near-zero slopes are explicitly low-confidence classifications.

Gold's 200-day slope is about -0.13% over 20 sessions. Silver futures are at +0.06% while SLV is at -0.03%, both effectively flat. This is a genuine classification gap. “Cheap” only means below 90% of an asset's own trend anchor and can inform timing and risk budgets. Gold produces no cash flow and cannot be valued with a stock-style DCF. An intrinsic-value range would require assumptions about real yields, the dollar, central-bank buying, reserve diversification, marginal production costs, and crisis insurance demand. This report does not have a sufficiently stable consensus model to claim that gold is below intrinsic value.

3. Price stage for gold, silver, GLD, and SLV

Gold. GC=F closed 2026-10-13 at 4,177.30, below its 50D 4,380.38 and 200D 4,544.82. It sits at 16.4% of its 52-week range, down 25.2% from the 52-week high. RSI(14) is 34.9; 5D/20D returns are -0.23%/-3.59%. Current futures at 4,184.90 remain below 4,216. Support is 4,167–4,141, then the 4,090 cheap threshold. Resistance is 4,216, 4,242, and the 50D at 4,380. The stage is a failed breakout and retest inside a declining trend, not a confirmed reversal. Strategic holdings can be maintained; tactical additions require either a hold at 4,141–4,090 or a reclaim of 4,216. A daily break below 4,090 is a risk-reduction trigger.

GLD closed at 381.67, below its 50D/200D at 397.44/415.35. It is at 14.4% of its 52-week range, down 25.1% from its high, with RSI(14) 39.1. Support is 375.88–373.81; resistance is 384.58 and 397.44. GLD has not entered the defined cheap band but is near the bottom of fair.

Silver. SI=F closed at 59.161, below its 50D/200D at 64.19/72.38. It is at 17.7% of its 52-week range and down 51.2% from the high. RSI(14) is 30.9; 5D/20D returns are -3.28%/-6.44%. Current spot is 59.332 and current futures 59.415. Support is 58.89–59.06, then 57.30; resistance is 60.67, 61.30, and the 50D at 64.19. The loss of the prior 61.30 confirmation line shifts the stage to near-oversold without evidence of a bottom. Existing holders should control size; new risk should wait for a reclaim of 60.67/61.30 or a clear reversal at 58.89. A break below 58.89 calls for risk reduction.

SLV closed at 53.49, below its 50D/200D at 58.00/65.66. It is at 17.3% of its 52-week range and down 51.3% from the high, with RSI(14) 30.3. Support is 53.18–52.84; resistance is 54.78 and 58.00. Yahoo's latest two SI=F daily bars have single-value OHLC fields, marked FUTURES_SESSION_GAP; closes remain usable for averages and returns, while short-term extrema are cross-checked against live FMP data.

4. Relative value, macro, and financial conditions

The gold/silver ratio is 70.17. Over five years, the 10th percentile/median/90th percentile are approximately 66.24/83.92/90.80; the current ratio is near the 15.9th percentile. Silver therefore remains expensive relative to gold, though less extreme than the prior 68.68 reading. Absolute technical cheapness and relative expensiveness can coexist.

Macro remains restrictive. FRED's 10-year TIPS real yield, DFII10, was 2.91% on 2026-10-09, up from 2.87%; DGS10 was 5.24% on 2026-10-09. FMP's more recent nominal 10-year observation was 5.21% on 2026-10-13, used only as a freshness cross-check. DX-Y.NYB closed 2026-10-13 at 102.18, above its 50D/200D at 100.21/99.41 and near the 94th percentile of its 52-week range. NFCI was -0.494 on 2026-10-02: still looser than its historical average, but slightly tighter than -0.510 the prior week. High real yields and a strong dollar restrain precious metals; loose aggregate financial conditions provide only a partial offset. Net macro stance: restrictive.

Credit boundary: the public report does not republish ICE/FRED HY OAS raw values without clear redistribution permission. That item remains DATA_WITHHELD; only the source link and predefined alert threshold are retained. Therefore the five-part credit block cannot be described as “all green.”

5. ETF holdings and slow-moving supply-demand fundamentals

Official GLD gold holdings were 1,053.13 tonnes on 2026-10-09, 1,055.41 tonnes on 10-12, and 1,054.20 tonnes on 10-13: down 1.21 tonnes day-over-day but up 1.07 tonnes from 10-09. These are holdings changes, not cash-flow estimates. Holdings resilience as price weakened is modest support, not a reversal confirmation.

The official SLV page reported 15,346.67 tonnes and 546.80 million shares as of 2026-10-13. Against 15,363.53 tonnes on 10-09, holdings fell 16.86 tonnes across two sessions. Shares were down 0.15 million from 10-09 but up 0.45 million from 10-12. Because consecutive daily tonnage observations are unavailable, the one-day reading is marked HOLDINGS_PROXY; share changes are not presented as exact metal flows.

Slow variables did not change with one trading day. WGC's Q2 2026 material reported central-bank net purchases of about 289 tonnes and about 345 tonnes for H1; 89% of surveyed central banks expected global gold reserves to rise and 45% expected their own holdings to increase. The Silver Institute's 2026 estimates put industrial demand near 639.6 Moz and the market deficit near 46.3 Moz. Photovoltaics remain a demand pillar, but unit silver loadings fell more than 15% in 2025 and may fall another 15%–20% in 2026. AI, grids, and autos support demand; thrifting and substitution cap demand elasticity. Long-run fundamentals support strategic exposure but do not cancel near-term pressure from high real yields and broken technical levels.

6. Scenario mapping, time horizons, and action lines

Spot gold to GLD, using the fixed current factor 0.09168:

Spot silver to SLV, using the fixed current factor 0.90154:

Tactical, weeks: gold's breakout failed and silver lost its confirmation line. Wait for key resistance to be reclaimed rather than buying simply because RSI is near oversold. Gold 4,141–4,090 is the defense zone; silver 58.89 is the first risk line.

Cyclical, months: a 2.91% real yield, strong dollar, and prices below both 50D and 200D keep the cycle unfavorable. Gold above 4,380 and silver above 64.19 would be needed to upgrade the trend assessment.

Strategic, one year or more: central-bank gold demand, reserve diversification, and a persistent silver deficit support allocation value. Silver is not cheap relative to gold, however, so strategic entries should be staged and volatility-budgeted rather than justified by a technical “cheap” label alone.

Action map: gold reclaiming 4,216 reopens a small tactical entry; a break above 4,242 adds confirmation; below 4,090 reduces risk. GLD above 384.58 turns neutral and above 397.44 confirms stronger repair; below 373.81 reduces risk. Silver must reclaim 60.67/61.30 before the buy trigger returns; below 58.89 reduces risk. SLV above 54.78 turns neutral and above 58.00 confirms repair; below 52.84 reduces risk.

7. Data health and boundaries

Spot prices have same-day two-source verification; ETFs and technicals use the latest completed session; every FRED field carries its observation date. FMP was queried first for financial fields and provides the live futures cross-check. Because FMP does not provide the required true spot field here, spot falls back to Gold-API and Trading Economics. Yahoo is used for the mandated consistent daily technical series. GLD has official consecutive holdings observations; SLV's one-day tonnage flow is unavailable and marked HOLDINGS_PROXY. No critical price is older than one trading day, so STALE_CRITICAL is not triggered. This is a research framework, not personalized investment advice.