Gold & silver daily report · 2026-10-28

Gold, silver, GLD and SLV remain below falling 200-day averages, so all four regimes are Bear. Gold spot and GLD are only marginally below their technical-cheap thresholds and should be treated as boundary readings; silver and SLV remain clearly technical Cheap. High real yields and a strong dollar remain restrictive. Latest official holdings show a small GLD increase and unchanged SLV holdings.

Cheap / Fair / Hot describes technical distance from SMA200, not a verified intrinsic-value discount. Spot, futures and ETF prices are kept separate.

1. Prices and ETF mapping

Observed mapping factors are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09195 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.90633. They are scenario estimates, not arbitrage conversions, and vary with timing, expenses, cash, tracking and premiums. FMP quote access worked today. FMP commodity quotes were explicitly GCUSD Gold Futures $4,061.40 and SIUSD Silver Futures $54.055 around 03:00 UTC; they are futures cross-checks only and are never presented as spot.

2. Regimes, zones and exact technical bands

A Bear regime requires price and SMA50 below a falling SMA200; Bull requires both above a rising SMA200; otherwise the classification is Transition. Cheap is below 0.90×SMA200, Fair is 0.90–1.05×, and Hot is above 1.05×. Spot bands are SPOT_PROXY values scaled from GC=F / SI=F by the current spot-futures basis.

Classification gap: gold spot and GLD are only about 0.03% below the Cheap threshold. Their Bear regimes are clear, but the Cheap/Fair zone is a boundary reading and should not be overinterpreted.

3. Price stage

Gold / GLD. GC=F closed October 27 at $4,074.60, with SMA50 $4,325.91, SMA200 $4,528.66, and a 20-session SMA200 slope of -0.59%. It sits at 8.4% of its 52-week range, 23.4% below the high; RSI14 is 43.5, five-day return -1.6%, 20-day -2.5%. GLD closed $372.28 versus SMA50 $393.17 and SMA200 $413.78; 52-week position 7.5%, drawdown 24.9%, RSI14 46.3, five-day -1.4%, 20-day -2.8%. Gold support is $4,000 and the basis-scaled 52-week low near $3,936; resistance is $4,050 then about $4,299. GLD support is $372.28 / $362.32; resistance $372.40 / $393.17. This is Bear-regime repair, favoring hold and staged additions over chasing.

Silver / SLV. SI=F closed October 27 at $54.293, with SMA50 $62.587, SMA200 $71.415, and a 20-session SMA200 slope of -1.72%. It sits at 11.3% of its 52-week range, 52.8% below the high; RSI14 is 30.4, five-day return -5.9%, 20-day -10.5%. SLV closed $49.16 versus SMA50 $56.58 and SMA200 $64.73; 52-week position 10.7%, drawdown 53.4%, RSI14 32.4, five-day -5.7%, 20-day -11.4%. Silver support is $54.05, $50 and a basis-scaled 52-week low near $46.52; resistance is $54.60, about $62.53 and $64.21. SLV support is $48.08 / $42.40; resistance $50 / $56.58 / $58.26. Near-oversold conditions can produce rebounds, but no medium-term reversal is confirmed.

4. Gold/silver ratio

The same-time spot ratio is 74.65. The five-year GC=F/SI=F reference distribution is 66.34 at the 10th percentile, 75.33 at the 20th, 83.92 median, 88.60 at the 80th, and 90.79 at the 90th. The completed October 27 futures ratio was 75.05, at roughly the 19.8th percentile.

Below about 75.33, silver is relatively expensive versus gold; 75.33–88.60 is broadly Fair; above 88.60 silver is relatively Cheap. Silver is therefore technically cheap versus its own SMA200 but still relatively expensive, near the Fair boundary, versus gold. A sustained move above 75.3–76 would make it neutral, not cheap.

5. Macro conditions

FRED 10-year TIPS real yield was 2.66% on October 26, unchanged from October 23. FRED nominal 10-year yield was 5.00% on October 26; Yahoo ^TNX closed October 27 at 4.993%. DX-Y.NYB closed October 27 at 102.32, above SMA50 100.64 and SMA200 99.59 and only about 0.25% below its 52-week high. NFCI was -0.496 for October 16, versus -0.502, still looser than its historical average.

The macro backdrop is restrictive, with partial relief: real yields remain high and the dollar is near its 52-week high, while nominal yields have eased from recent highs and NFCI remains negative. Frequencies differ, so these are dated observations rather than a synchronous snapshot.

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD official archive: 1,040.80 tonnes on October 26 → 1,041.65 tonnes on October 27, up 0.85 tonnes. Two official dated observations support direction, but this is HOLDINGS_PROXY, not exact dollar cash flow.
• SLV official page: 15,499.73 tonnes, 498.33Moz and 551.80M shares on October 27, unchanged from October 26; October 27 NAV was $48.09. These are holdings observations, not daily cash-flow facts.
• WGC monthly background: September 2026 global gold ETFs added about US$10bn / 67 tonnes, with holdings at 4,256 tonnes as of September 30. This is slow monthly context, not October 27 GLD flow.

The latest official signal is mildly positive for GLD and neutral for SLV. Holdings changes, subscriptions and trading volume are distinct concepts.

7. Slow supply and demand

WGC reported about 289 tonnes of Q2 2026 central-bank net gold purchases and about 345 tonnes for H1. First-half buying was the lowest since 2022, but reserve diversification and stated purchase intentions remain strategic support. The World Silver Survey 2026 estimates industrial demand near 639.6Moz, photovoltaic demand 151.0Moz, and a 46.3Moz market deficit, the sixth consecutive deficit year. PV demand remains important, but the 2026 forecast is about 19% lower year over year; thrifting, copper substitution and lower silver intensity limit linear extrapolation. These slow variables do not override the Bear regime or prove one intrinsic value.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenarios

Actual ETF prices vary with observation timing, fees, cash, tracking and premiums/discounts.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: gold and GLD sit on the Cheap/Fair boundary; watch whether $4,050 and GLD $372.40 hold. Silver is near oversold, but five- and 20-day momentum remains weak, so avoid one-shot bottom fishing.
• Cyclical, months: gold above about $4,299 and GLD above $393.17; silver above $62.53–64.21 and SLV above $56.58–58.26 would create Bear-to-Transition candidates, still requiring multiple closes and holdings confirmation.
• Strategic, year+: central-bank demand and reserve diversification support gold as a core diversifier. Silver's deficit adds upside elasticity, but PV thrifting, substitution, cyclicality and volatility argue for a smaller controlled satellite allocation.

10. Action map and data health

• Gold sustaining $4,050 permits small staged additions; below $4,000 and then about $3,936, pause additions and reduce tactical risk; above $4,299 is stronger medium-term repair.
• GLD must reclaim $372.40 to leave Cheap; support is $372.28 / $362.32; above $393.17 is clearer medium-term repair.
• Silver holding $54.05 and breaking $54.60 permits only a controlled probe; above $62.53 improves the signal and above $64.21 permits more risk.
• SLV support is $48.08 / $42.40; reclaiming $50 is step one, while $56.58–58.26 marks medium-term repair and exit from Cheap.
• If DFII10 approaches 3%, ^TNX returns above 5.1%, and DXY breaks 102.58, tighten precious-metals risk conditions further.

Data health: FMP quote and commodity endpoints worked today; commodity values are futures-only cross-checks. Gold API and Trading Economics supplied October 28 spot cross-checks. Yahoo technical series use completed bars through October 27. FRED DFII10/DGS10 end October 26 and NFCI October 16. Official GLD and SLV holdings are dated October 27. No critical price is older than one trading day, so STALE_CRITICAL is not triggered. Futures are not labeled spot, holdings proxies are not called cash flows, and technical cheapness is not called intrinsic-value discount.

Sources: Gold API ↗, Trading Economics ↗, Yahoo Finance ↗, FRED ↗, SPDR GLD ↗, iShares SLV ↗, World Gold Council ↗, World Silver Survey 2026 ↗.