Gold & silver daily report · 2026-10-26

Gold, silver, GLD and SLV remain below falling 200-day averages, so all four regimes remain Bear and all four are in the Technical Cheap zone. Technical cheapness is not a bottom call: gold RSI is not extreme, while silver is near oversold but retains the steeper downtrend and higher volatility. Real and nominal yields have eased from recent levels, but real yields remain high and the dollar remains above both major averages. Macro is restrictive, easing at the margin.

Cheap / Fair / Hot describes technical position versus SMA200, not intrinsic value. Spot, futures and ETF prices are kept separate.

1. Current prices and ETF mapping

Observed mappings are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09143 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.89851. These are scenario estimates affected by timing, expenses, cash, tracking error and premiums/discounts—not arbitrage conversions.

FMP quote for GLD/SLV returned Starter-plan ACCESS DENIED, so equivalent restricted quote endpoints were not retried. FMP commodity succeeded but explicitly identified GCUSD Gold Futures at $4,013.10 and SIUSD Silver Futures at $54.02 at 2026-10-26 02:59:53 UTC. They are retained only as futures cross-checks and never presented as spot. Affected ETF latest-price fields pivoted to Yahoo completed closes.

Sources: Gold API gold ↗, Gold API silver ↗, Trading Economics gold ↗, Trading Economics silver ↗, Yahoo Finance ↗.

2. Regime, current zone and technical bands

Rule: price and SMA50 below a falling SMA200 is Bear; both above a rising SMA200 is Bull; otherwise Transition. Cheap is below 0.90×SMA200, Fair is 0.90–1.05×, and Hot is above 1.05×. Spot averages use the same-period GC=F / SI=F series shifted by the current spot-futures basis and are labeled SPOT_PROXY.

There is no classification gap today: all four meet the Bear conditions. Technical Cheap inside Bear indicates a large trend deviation, not an automatic buy or reversal signal.

3. Price stage: gold and silver

Gold / GLD

• GC=F completed at $4,007.90 on 2026-10-23; SMA50 $4,341.87, SMA200 $4,532.90, with SMA200 down 0.51% from 20 sessions earlier.
• GC=F is at 3.5% of its 52-week range and 24.6% below the high. RSI14 is 35.7; five-day return -4.1%, 20-day -7.3%.
• GLD closed $366.61; SMA50 $394.51, SMA200 $414.21; 52-week position 3.2%, drawdown 26.1%, RSI14 37.5, five-day -4.0%, 20-day -6.8%.
• Support: spot $4,000 and roughly $3,962 at the basis-shifted 52-week low; GLD $366.61 / $362.32. Resistance: spot $4,081, roughly $4,218 and $4,344; GLD $372.79 / $394.51.
• Stage meaning: gold is attempting a lower-edge repair inside Bear, without a confirmed reversal. Core exposure favors hold/risk control. New risk should be staged and accelerated only after the Technical Cheap boundary is recovered.

Silver / SLV

• SI=F completed at $53.711 on 2026-10-23; SMA50 $63.041, SMA200 $71.641, with SMA200 down 1.40% from 20 sessions earlier.
• SI=F is at 10.4% of its 52-week range and 53.3% below the high. RSI14 is 26.6; five-day return -5.8%, 20-day -16.4%.
• SLV closed $48.72; SMA50 $56.99, SMA200 $64.95; 52-week position 10.0%, drawdown 53.9%, RSI14 28.1, five-day -5.4%, 20-day -16.2%.
• Support: spot $53.7–54 and $50; SLV $48.72 / $42.40. Resistance: spot $54.34, roughly $61.8, $63.64 and $65.09; SLV $50.33 / $56.99 / $58.46.
• Stage meaning: silver is near oversold, increasing rebound risk, but the trend is weaker and volatility is higher. Below $61.8–65.1 it remains a fragile Bear-stage asset suitable only for controlled satellite risk.

4. Gold/silver ratio and relative value

The time-matched primary spot ratio is 73.95. Five-year same-session GC=F / SI=F context: 10th percentile 66.24, 20th 75.73, median 83.92, 80th 88.61, and 90th 90.80. The current ratio is around the 18.1st percentile.

A transparent relative-value reading is: below roughly 75.73, silver is expensive versus gold; 75.73–88.61 is broadly fair; above 88.61, silver is cheap. Silver is therefore Technical Cheap versus its own SMA200 but still expensive relative to gold. A sustained ratio recovery toward 76–80 would be closer to neutral relative value.

5. Macro environment

• U.S. 10-year TIPS real yield: 2.64% on 2026-10-22, FRED DFII10; previous observation 2.76%.
• Nominal 10-year yield: 4.96% on 2026-10-22, FRED DGS10. FMP Treasury shows 5.00% on 2026-10-23; Yahoo ^TNX completed at 4.988% on 2026-10-23.
• DXY proxy DX-Y.NYB completed at 101.810 on 2026-10-23; SMA50 100.541, SMA200 99.555, only 0.75% below the 52-week high.
• NFCI: -0.496 for the week of 2026-10-16; a negative reading indicates looser-than-average financial conditions.

Assessment: high real yields and a dollar above both major averages remain restrictive for non-yielding metals. Lower real and nominal yields plus a negative NFCI provide marginal relief. Observation dates differ because the series have different frequencies and are not treated as simultaneous.

Sources: FRED DFII10 ↗, FRED DGS10 ↗, FRED NFCI ↗.

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: SPDR's official archive shows 1,045.64 tonnes on Oct 22 → 1,041.65 tonnes on Oct 23, down 3.99 tonnes. Two dated official observations support the direction, but this is labeled HOLDINGS_PROXY, not exact dollar cash flow.
• SLV: the iShares page shows 15,485.69 tonnes and 551.30M shares on Oct 22 → 15,499.73 tonnes and 551.80M shares on Oct 23, up 14.04 tonnes and 0.50M shares. Oct 23 NAV was $48.66.
• WGC monthly background: global gold ETFs attracted about US$10bn / 67 tonnes in September and reached a record 4,256 tonnes as of 2026-09-30. This is slow monthly context, not an Oct 23 GLD daily-flow claim.

The latest official holdings signals diverge: GLD fell again while SLV increased modestly. Holdings changes, creation/redemption cash flows and exchange volume are distinct measures.

Sources: SPDR GLD official archive ↗, iShares SLV ↗, WGC global gold ETFs ↗.

7. Slow supply-demand fundamentals

• Gold: WGC's Q2 2026 report shows about 289 tonnes of central-bank net purchases in Q2 and roughly 345 tonnes in H1. H1 was the lowest since 2022, but reserve diversification and stated buying intent remain strategic support.
• Silver: the World Silver Survey 2026 forecasts 639.6Moz of industrial demand, 151.0Moz of photovoltaic demand and a 46.3Moz deficit, the sixth consecutive annual deficit.
• Solar boundary: PV demand remains important, but forecast 2026 demand is down about 19%. Thrifting, copper substitution and lower silver intensity constrain demand elasticity, so installation growth cannot be extrapolated linearly into silver prices.

These slow variables support a year-plus allocation case but do not override the current Bear regime or establish one uniquely measurable intrinsic value.

Sources: WGC central banks ↗, World Silver Survey 2026 ↗.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenario mapping

The table uses this report's observed mappings. Actual ETF prices remain sensitive to timing, expenses, cash, tracking error and premiums/discounts.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: all four assets are Bear / Technical Cheap; silver is near oversold, creating rebound and continued-downside risk. Gold must first reclaim $4,081; silver must first clear $54.34 and then $61.8. Avoid one-shot dip buying below those levels.
• Cyclical, months: gold above roughly $4,344 / GC $4,342 and silver above roughly $63.64–65.09 / SI $63.04 would create Bear→Transition candidates. Multiple closes and ETF-holdings confirmation remain required.
• Strategic, year+: central-bank demand, reserve diversification and monthly global gold-ETF inflows support gold as a core diversifier. Silver's persistent deficit offers greater elasticity, but PV thrifting, substitution, cyclicality and volatility argue for smaller, controlled satellite exposure.

10. Action map and data health

• Gold spot reclaiming and holding $4,081 permits small staged additions. Below $4,000 and then roughly $3,962, pause new risk and reduce tactical exposure. A move above $4,344 is needed for stronger medium-term repair.
• GLD support is $366.61 / $362.32. Reclaim $372.79 to leave Technical Cheap and $394.51 for meaningful medium-term repair.
• Silver holding $53.7–54 and breaking $54.34 permits controlled testing only. Evidence improves above $61.8; raise risk only above $63.64–65.09. Below $53.7, slow or reduce risk.
• SLV support is $48.72 / $42.40. Reclaim $50.33 first; $56.99–58.46 is needed for medium-term repair and exit from Technical Cheap.
• If DFII10 returns toward 3%, ^TNX moves above 5.1%, and DXY breaks 102.58, tighten precious-metals addition rules further.

Data health: FMP quote returned explicit ACCESS DENIED and was not retried; FMP commodity is used only as a futures cross-check. Gold API and Trading Economics provide Oct 26 spot cross-checks. Kitco's page was accessible, but its server HTML did not expose a verifiable numeric quote, so no Kitco price is used. Yahoo technical series use completed bars only through Oct 23 and exclude the incomplete Oct 26 bar. FRED DFII10 / DGS10 end Oct 22 and NFCI ends Oct 16. Official GLD and SLV holdings both end Oct 23. No critical price is older than one trading day, so STALE_CRITICAL is not triggered. No futures price is presented as spot, no holdings proxy as cash flow, and no technical cheapness as an intrinsic-value discount.