Gold & silver daily report · 2026-11-12

On the morning of November 12 Beijing time, spot gold was about $3,981.20/oz and spot silver $51.625/oz. Completed November 11 closes keep gold, silver, GLD and SLV in a Bear Regime, with all four inside their technical-cheap zones. High real and nominal yields plus a stronger dollar remain restrictive; official SLV holdings fell again. Central-bank gold demand and the structural silver deficit remain slow-moving long-horizon supports.

Cheap / fair / hot are fixed technical bands around the 200-day average (0.90x / 1.10x), not intrinsic-value estimates. Spot, futures and ETFs are kept separate.

1. Latest prices and spot-to-ETF mapping

The two spot feeds differ by less than 0.3%. Current timing mappings are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09172 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.90363. ETF prices are November 11 closes while spot is intraday November 12, so both are TIMING_MISMATCH_ESTIMATE; fees, cash, premiums/discounts and tracking also matter. Gold API gold ↗ | Gold API silver ↗ | Trading Economics ↗ | Yahoo Finance ↗

2. Regime, current zone and exact bands

Rule: Bull or Bear requires completed price, 50-day average, 200-day average and the roughly 20-session 200-day slope to align; otherwise the result is Transition.

All four completed November 11 closes are below their 50-day and 200-day averages, the 50-day is below the 200-day, and the 200-day slope is falling. The roughly 20-session slope is -1.24% to -1.28% for gold/GLD and -4.51% to -4.62% for silver/SLV. There is no classification gap today, but technical cheapness alone does not establish a bottom.

3. Price stage: gold and silver

Gold

• Spot is $3,981.20; Yahoo GC=F closed November 11 at $3,987.70, below the $4,204.91 50-day and $4,486.43 200-day averages.
• The 52-week range is $3,898.90–$5,318.40. The close sits about 6.3% up the range and 25.0% below the high.
• Wilder RSI(14) is 41.6; the 5-day return is -2.1% and 20-day return -2.9%. Momentum is weak but not below the conventional RSI 30 oversold line.
• Support is the 20-day/52-week low at $3,898.90, then $3,800. Resistance is a reclaim of $4,000–4,037.79, the $4,181.10 20-day high and $4,204.91 50-day average.
• Meaning: hold a strategic core and keep tactical additions small. Reclaiming $4,038 only exits technical-cheap territory; $4,181–4,205 is the first trend-improvement line. A break below $3,899 calls for defense.

Silver

• Spot is $51.625; Yahoo SI=F closed November 11 at $51.500, below the $59.122 50-day and $69.021 200-day averages.
• The 52-week range is $49.097–$115.08. The close is about 3.6% up the range and 55.2% below the high.
• Wilder RSI(14) is 38.6; the 5-day return is -1.2% and 20-day return -7.3%. This remains weak consolidation inside a downtrend, not a confirmed reversal.
• Support is the 20-day/52-week low at $49.097. Resistance is $57.706, the $59.122 50-day average and the $62.12 fair-zone threshold.
• Meaning: only a smaller controlled probe than gold. A recovery through $57.71–59.12 is the first improvement; above $62.12 exits technical-cheap territory. Below $49.10 turns defensive.

4. Gold/silver ratio and relative value

The same-round spot ratio is about 77.12. Synchronized Yahoo futures closes over five years show an approximate 10th percentile of 66.24, median 83.92, and 90th percentile 90.80; the November 11 futures ratio is 77.42.

Because a high ratio means silver is cheap relative to gold, the current below-median ratio makes silver fair but somewhat expensive relative to gold, not distinctly cheap. Silver can be technically cheap in its own trend without being cheap versus gold. A ratio near 84 would be five-year neutral; about 91 or more would signal clearly cheap silver relative to gold.

5. Macro environment

Overall macro is restrictive, with stronger dollar pressure. High real yields, nominal yields and the dollar are the main headwinds. Negative NFCI provides a cushion but is weekly and stale relative to market prices. FRED DFII10 ↗ | FRED DGS10 ↗ | FRED NFCI ↗

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: the SPDR official archive still ends on November 10: 1,042.51 tonnes (Nov 9) → 1,042.22 tonnes (Nov 10), down 0.29 tonnes. This is a one-day-lagged HOLDINGS_PROXY, not November 11 cash flow.
• SLV: the iShares page shows 15,695.75 tonnes / 504.630Moz / 559.05M shares (Nov 10) → 15,684.52 tonnes / 504.269Moz / 558.65M shares (Nov 11), down 11.23 tonnes, 0.361Moz and 0.40M shares. Two official observations support a holdings decline, not a dollar-flow claim.
• WGC October context: global gold ETFs added about US$2.7bn / 19 tonnes, reaching roughly 4,275 tonnes and US$542bn AUM; North America had about US$512mn of monthly outflows.

The available daily proxies are soft: SLV fell again and GLD's last official observation lagged by one day after a small decline. A single daily move does not establish a durable flow trend. SPDR archive ↗ | iShares SLV ↗ | WGC gold ETF flows ↗

7. Slow-moving supply and demand

• Gold: WGC estimates Q3 2026 central-bank net purchases at about 321 tonnes, above the five-year quarterly average of 227 tonnes; year-to-date demand was about 675 tonnes, up 6%. Roughly 63% was estimated unreported activity, not complete country disclosure.
• Gold supply: Q3 mine production was about 1,071 tonnes, up 3% year over year; recycling was about 314.5 tonnes, down 8%.
• Silver: World Silver Survey 2026 forecasts 639.6Moz industrial demand, 151.0Moz photovoltaic demand and a 46.3Moz market deficit, the sixth consecutive deficit. Including 30Moz of ETP investment would imply roughly a 76.3Moz balance shortfall.
• PV boundary: forecast 2026 photovoltaic silver demand is down about 19%; thrifting, silver-coated copper, copper plating and lower silver intensity limit demand elasticity.

These slow variables support the one-year-plus case, but they do not override today's Bear Regime or prove a single intrinsic value. WGC Q3 2026 ↗ | World Silver Survey 2026 ↗

8. Spot-to-ETF scenarios

The table uses today's timing-mismatched mapping and is labeled TIMING_MISMATCH_ESTIMATE; fees, cash, tracking and premium/discount changes can alter realized ETF prices.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical (weeks): both metals are technically cheap but remain in Bear regimes. Small gold tranches are reasonable; silver sizing should be smaller and wait for the first $57.71 confirmation.
• Cyclical (months): gold/GLD must reclaim their 50-day averages at $4,204.91/$382.96 and silver/SLV $59.12/$53.48 for a first improvement. A true regime turn still requires the average ordering and 200-day slope to improve persistently.
• Strategic (year+): gold remains a core diversifier, with central-bank demand and global ETF stock as structural support. Silver's deficit creates upside elasticity, but thrifting, substitution, industrial cyclicality and volatility argue for a smaller satellite allocation.

10. Action map and Data health

• Gold: reclaim and hold $4,000–4,037.79 to return to the fair zone; raise cyclical risk only above $4,181–4,205; turn defensive below $3,898.90.
• GLD: above $368.84 exits technical-cheap territory; $382.71–382.96 confirms first repair; below $355.78 tightens risk.
• Silver: hold $49.10 for only a small probe; add after $57.71–59.12; above $62.12 exits technical-cheap territory.
• SLV: $52.26–53.48 confirms intermediate repair; above $56.27 exits technical-cheap territory; below $44.60 tightens risk.
• If DFII10 exceeds 2.8%, ^TNX exceeds 5.1%, and the dollar remains above 103.02, slow purchases further.

Data health: the exact FMP namespace was discovered and returned November 11 GLD/SLV closes; it is only a cross-check and matches Yahoo. Gold API and Trading Economics supplied same-round November 12 spot observations. All six Yahoo series updated through completed November 11 closes and every indicator was calculated locally from consistent closes. FRED CSV retrieval succeeded; DFII10/DGS10 still end on November 9 and NFCI on October 30. The GLD archive ends on November 10 and is explicitly lagged; official SLV holdings update through November 11. Futures are not presented as spot, holdings changes are not called cash flows, and technical cheapness is not intrinsic-value discount.