Gold & silver daily report · 2026-11-08

November 8 is a weekend, so November 6 remains the latest completed trading session. Gold, silver, GLD and SLV are below both their 50-day and 200-day averages, and all four 200-day averages are falling: the regime remains Bear. Gold spot and GLD sit at the low end of the technical Fair zone, close to Cheap; silver and SLV remain technically Cheap. Lower Treasury yields provide a marginal cushion, but a dollar near its 52-week high keeps the macro backdrop restrictive.

Cheap / Fair / Hot is a fixed technical band around SMA200 (0.90x / 1.10x), not an intrinsic-value estimate. Spot, futures and ETFs are labelled separately.

1. Current prices and spot-to-ETF mapping

The market is closed for the weekend. Both spot cross-check differences are below 0.4%; there is no newer trading session, so no STALE_CRITICAL flag. Observed mapping factors are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09148 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.90012. Fees, cash, premiums/discounts and timing cause tracking differences; futures are not presented as spot.

2. Regime, current zone and exact technical bands

The strict regime rule is: completed close below SMA200, SMA50 below SMA200, and SMA200 below its level about 20 sessions earlier. Gold / GLD SMA200 fell roughly 1.0%–1.1%; silver / SLV fell roughly 3.6%–3.8%. There is no classification gap this time. Gold spot is only about 0.5% above the Cheap boundary, so it is a boundary reading.

3. Price stage: gold and silver

Gold

• Yahoo GC=F November 6 close: $4,074.90; SMA50 $4,230.42; SMA200 $4,501.50.
• 52-week closing range: $3,898.90–$5,318.40; current position about 12.4%; drawdown from the 52-week closing high 23.4%.
• RSI(14) 44.1; five-session return +4.5%; 20-session return -3.4%. The rebound is meaningful but has not changed the downtrend.
• Support: $4,051 / $4,000 / $3,898.90. Resistance: 20-session high $4,190.60, then SMA50 $4,230.42.
• Meaning: hold existing exposure with risk controls and add only in tranches. A break above $4,190–4,230 would justify more cyclical risk; below $4,000, pause accelerated buying.

Silver

• Yahoo SI=F November 6 close: $51.803; SMA50 $59.976; SMA200 $69.852.
• 52-week closing range: $47.794–$115.08; current position about 6.0%; drawdown 55.0%.
• RSI(14) 34.2; five-session return +5.5%; 20-session return -14.6%. This is an oversold rebound with weak medium-term momentum.
• Support: 20-session low $49.10, then 52-week low $47.79. Resistance: $52.37, SMA50 $59.98, and Fair-zone floor $62.87.
• Meaning: only a small, controlled probe is warranted. Holding $52.37 is a first step; $59.98–62.87 is needed for a Bear-to-Transition candidate. Below $49.10, slow additions.

4. Gold/silver ratio and relative value

The same-time spot ratio is about 78.20. On synchronized Yahoo futures closes over five years, the 10th percentile is 66.24, median 83.92, and 90th percentile 90.80; the current ratio is near the 26th percentile.

Silver is fair but slightly expensive relative to gold, not clearly cheap. Silver can be technically Cheap versus its own SMA200 while not cheap relative to gold. A ratio near 84 or higher would improve silver's relative-value case materially.

5. Macro environment

Overall: restrictive, with marginal relief from lower yields. High real yields and a strong dollar are the main headwinds; a negative NFCI and declining yields are buffers. All three FRED public CSV requests timed out on the initial attempt and the one permitted retry, so these are explicitly labelled FRED_REUSE_FALLBACK, not fresh observations.

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: the latest SPDR official archive still shows 1,040.51 tonnes on November 4 → 1,040.51 tonnes on November 5, unchanged. Two dated observations support unchanged tonnage, but this is HOLDINGS_PROXY, not exact cash flow.
• SLV: the latest iShares page still shows 15,751.90 tonnes, 506.435Moz, 561.05M shares on November 5 → 15,709.79 tonnes, 505.081Moz, 559.55M shares on November 6, down about 42.11 tonnes / 1.354Moz / 1.50M shares. Holdings change is not exact dollar redemption flow.
• WGC October context: global gold ETFs added about US$2.7bn / 19 tonnes, reaching roughly 4,275 tonnes and US$542bn AUM; North America had roughly US$512mn of net outflows.

SLV holdings falling while price remains depressed is a weak tactical signal; unchanged GLD holdings are neutral. No newer official daily holdings are available over the weekend.

7. Slow supply-demand variables

• Gold: WGC estimates Q3 2026 central-bank net buying at about 321 tonnes, above the five-year quarterly average near 227 tonnes; year-to-date buying was about 675 tonnes, up 6% year over year. Reported buying was only 120 tonnes and about 63% of the total was estimated unreported activity.
• Gold supply: Q3 mine production was about 1,071 tonnes, up 3% year over year; recycling was about 314 tonnes, down 8%. No supply shock explains the daily move by itself.
• Silver: World Silver Survey 2026 estimates industrial demand around 639.6Moz, photovoltaic demand 151.0Moz, and a 46.3Moz deficit, the sixth consecutive annual deficit.
• PV boundary: forecast PV silver use falls roughly 19%; thrifting, copper substitution and lower silver loadings limit the sensitivity to installation growth.

These slow variables support the year-plus allocation case but do not override the current Bear regime or prove a unique intrinsic value.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenario mapping

The scenario table uses this report's observed mapping factors. Actual ETF prices differ because of fees, cash, tracking error, timing and premiums/discounts.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: both metals are rebounding inside Bear regimes. Small tranches are reasonable, but do not chase; watch gold $4,051 / $4,190 and silver $49.10 / $52.37.
• Cyclical, months: gold above $4,190–4,230 and GLD above $384.96; silver above $59.98–62.87 and SLV above $54.21–56.96 would create Bear-to-Transition candidates.
• Strategic, year+: gold remains a core diversifier supported by central-bank and ETF demand. Silver's deficit offers more upside elasticity, but thrifting, substitution, cyclicality and volatility justify a smaller satellite allocation.

10. Action lines and Data health

• Gold holding $4,051 and breaking $4,190: retain tactical exposure; above $4,230, raise cyclical risk. Below $4,000, pause additions; below $3,898.90, turn defensive.
• GLD: hold $370.12; above $384.96 is clearer cyclical repair; near $355.78, tighten risk.
• Silver: above $52.37, retain a small probe; above $59.98–62.87, increase risk. Below $49.10, slow additions; below $47.79, turn defensive.
• SLV: above $54.21–56.96 confirms medium-term repair; near $44.11, tighten risk.
• If DFII10 rises above 2.8%, ^TNX returns above 5.1%, and DXY breaks 102.58, reduce buying speed further.

Data health: FMP quote was available for GLD / SLV and used only as a cross-check. Gold API and Trading Economics provide weekend-carry / November 6 spot cross-checks. Yahoo completed daily bars end November 6. FRED timed out twice; DFII10 / DGS10 reuse the prior verified November 5 observations and NFCI the October 30 observation, labelled FRED_REUSE_FALLBACK. Official GLD holdings end November 5 and SLV holdings November 6. Futures are not spot, holdings change is not cash flow, and technical Cheap is not an intrinsic-value discount.