Gold & silver daily report · 2026-11-06

Gold and silver diverged in the November 5 US session: GLD extended its rebound while silver and SLV eased. Completed daily bars still place all four assets below their 50-day and 200-day averages, with falling 200-day averages, so the regime remains Bear. Gold spot and GLD sit at the low end of Technical Fair, very close to the Cheap boundary; silver and SLV remain Technical Cheap. Lower Treasury yields provide marginal relief, but high real yields and a firm dollar keep the macro backdrop restrictive.

“Cheap / Fair / Hot” describes technical position versus the 200-day average using fixed 0.90x / 1.10x bands. It is not a verified intrinsic-value estimate. Spot, futures and ETFs are kept separate.

1. Latest prices and spot-to-ETF mapping

Both spot-source differences are below 0.2%, so no STALE_CRITICAL flag applies. The point-in-time mappings are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09252 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.90478. These are scenario approximations, not frictionless arbitrage ratios; fees, cash, premiums/discounts and timing can move them.

FMP GCUSD $4,074.40 and SIUSD $51.91 at about 2026-11-06 02:58 UTC are explicitly labelled futures and are used only as futures cross-checks, never as spot.

2. Regime, current zone and exact technical bands

The strict rule is: completed close below the 200-day average, 50-day below 200-day, and the 200-day average falling over roughly 20 sessions. The gold/GLD 200-day averages fell about 1.0%; silver/SLV fell about 3.4%–3.5%. There is no classification gap this run. Gold spot is only about 0.09% above the Cheap boundary, so this is a boundary reading, not a robust Fair-zone confirmation.

3. Price stage: gold and silver

Gold

• Yahoo GC=F completed November 5 at $4,069.10; 50-day $4,241.32 and 200-day $4,505.47.
• 52-week closing range: $3,898.90–$5,318.40. The close sits near the 12.0th percentile of that range and is 23.5% below the 52-week closing high.
• RSI(14) 46.6; 5-day return +0.9% and 20-day return -2.1%. The short rebound persists, but the declining trend has not reversed.
• Support: technical boundary $4,055, round-number $4,000, and 52-week low $3,898.90. Resistance: intraday area $4,116, recent high $4,216.30, and 50-day average $4,241.
• Meaning: existing exposure can be held with risk control; new buying should be staged. Sustained trade above $4,116 and then $4,216–4,241 would justify more cyclical risk. A break below $4,000 argues for pausing acceleration.

Silver

• Yahoo SI=F completed November 5 at $51.795; 50-day $60.319 and 200-day $70.071.
• 52-week closing range: $47.794–$115.08. The close sits near the 5.9th percentile of that range and is 55.0% below the high.
• RSI(14) 37.5; 5-day return -0.8% and 20-day return -12.3%. Deep oversold conditions have eased, but medium-term momentum remains weak.
• Support: $51.26 / $49.10 / $47.79. Resistance: $52.18, 50-day $60.32, and Fair-zone floor $63.06.
• Meaning: only small, controlled probes are justified. Holding $52.18 is a first step; reclaiming $60.32–63.06 is needed for a Bear-to-Transition candidate. Below $49.10, slow new buying.

4. Gold/silver ratio and silver relative value

The same-time spot ratio is about 78.25. Using synchronized Yahoo GC=F / SI=F completed closes, the five-year distribution has a 10th percentile near 66.34, median 83.92, and 90th percentile 90.79. The November 5 futures-close ratio was about 78.58, near the 27th percentile.

Conclusion: silver is Fair but slightly expensive relative to gold, not clearly cheap. Silver being Technical Cheap in its own trend is different from being cheap versus gold. Relative-value appeal improves materially only if the ratio moves toward or above the five-year median near 84.

5. Macro: real yield, nominal yield, dollar and financial conditions

Overall: restrictive, marginally easing. Falling yields help the metals and NFCI remains a cushion, but a 2.64% real yield, near-5% nominal yield and a dollar above both medium- and long-term averages keep the trend-confirmation bar high.

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: the SPDR official archive still ends at 1,037.66 tonnes (November 3) → 1,040.51 tonnes (November 4), up 2.85 tonnes. The November 5 official observation is unavailable, so no same-day flow is claimed. This is HOLDINGS_PROXY, not exact dollar cash flow.
• SLV: the official iShares page shows 15,751.90 tonnes, 506.435Moz and 561.05M shares (November 4) → unchanged on November 5. Two dated official observations support “unchanged holdings,” but not a precise cash-flow claim.
• Latest WGC slow-frequency context: global gold ETFs added about US$2.7bn / 19 tonnes in October 2026, the fourth consecutive monthly expansion. Holdings reached about 4,275 tonnes and AUM about US$542bn. COMEX total net longs fell about 94 tonnes to 560 tonnes during October, so physical ETF demand improved while derivatives positioning cooled.

The latest available GLD holdings change supports the rebound, but November 5 is missing. Stable SLV holdings during a price decline are neutral-to-firm, not evidence of an inflow.

7. Slow-moving supply and demand

• Gold: WGC Q3 2026 data put central-bank net purchases near 321 tonnes, above the five-year quarterly average near 227 tonnes. Year-to-date buying reached about 675 tonnes, up 6% year on year. Strategic diversification remains supportive, but about 63% of estimated Q3 demand was not disclosed in country-level reported data, so the estimate boundary matters.
• Gold supply: Q3 mine production was about 1,071 tonnes, up 3% year on year; recycling was about 314 tonnes, down 8%. No supply break alone explains the near-term move.
• Silver: World Silver Survey 2026 forecasts industrial demand near 639.6Moz, photovoltaic demand near 151.0Moz, and a 46.3Moz market deficit—the sixth consecutive annual deficit.
• PV boundary: 2026 PV silver use is forecast to fall about 19% as thrifting, copper substitution and lower silver loadings offset installation growth. Solar capacity cannot be mapped linearly into silver prices.

These fundamentals support a year-plus allocation case, but they do not override the current Bear regime or prove one unique intrinsic value.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenarios

The scenario table uses this report’s point-in-time mappings. Actual ETF prices will differ because of fees, cash, tracking error, timing and premiums/discounts.

9. Three time horizons

• Tactical (weeks): gold is consolidating near a technical boundary after a rebound; silver’s repair is weaker. Small staged buys are acceptable without chasing. Watch $4,055 and $4,116 for gold, $51.26 and $52.18 for silver. Below $4,000 / $49.10, slow additions.
• Cyclical (months): gold needs $4,216–4,241 and GLD $385.96; silver needs $60.32–63.06 and SLV $54.53–57.14 before a Bear-to-Transition candidate exists.
• Strategic (year+): gold remains suitable as a core diversifier, supported by central-bank and ETF demand. Silver’s structural deficit gives more upside convexity, but PV thrifting, substitution, cyclicality and volatility argue for a smaller satellite allocation.

10. Action lines and Data health

• Gold: hold $4,055 and reclaim $4,116 to retain tactical risk; break $4,216–4,241 before increasing cyclical risk. Below $4,000, pause additions; below $3,898.90, defend.
• GLD: hold $370.47; reclaim $385.96 for a clearer cyclical repair. Tighten risk near $355.78.
• Silver: hold $52.18 for a small probe; reclaim $60.32–63.06 before increasing risk. Below $49.10 slow additions; below $47.79 defend.
• SLV: reclaim $54.53–57.14 for medium-term repair; tighten risk below $44.60.
• If DFII10 rises above 2.8%, ^TNX returns above 5.1%, and DXY breaks 102.58, further reduce buying speed.

Data health: FMP quote and commodity endpoints were available; commodity values are futures-only cross-checks. Gold API and Trading Economics supplied same-day November 6 spot observations. Yahoo completed daily bars run through November 5. FRED DFII10/DGS10 run through November 4 and NFCI through October 30. GLD official holdings end November 4, so November 5 is HOLDINGS_UNAVAILABLE; SLV official holdings run through November 5. Futures were not presented as spot, holdings changes were not presented as exact cash flows, and technical cheapness was not presented as intrinsic value.