Gold & silver daily report · 2026-11-04

Gold held near $3,930 and silver near $49 during the November 4 Asian session. Completed November 3 daily bars still place gold, silver, GLD and SLV below falling 200-day averages: all four remain in Bear regimes and technical Cheap zones. Gold RSI14 is about 34.5 and silver 27.2. Silver is near oversold, but there is no trend-reversal confirmation. High real and nominal yields keep the macro backdrop restrictive.

Cheap / Fair / Hot describes technical position versus the 200-day average, not verified intrinsic value. Spot, futures and ETFs are kept separate.

1. Current prices and ETF mapping

Observed mapping factors are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09132 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.90946. These are scenario estimates subject to timing, fees, cash, tracking error and premium/discount, not arbitrage conversions.

FMP quote returned GLD and SLV successfully. FMP commodity returned explicitly labelled GCUSD Gold Futures $3,944.20 and SIUSD Silver Futures $49.175 around 2026-11-04 03:00 UTC. They are futures-only cross-checks and are not presented as spot.

Sources: Gold API gold ↗, Gold API silver ↗, Trading Economics gold ↗, Trading Economics silver ↗, Yahoo Finance ↗.

2. Regime, current zone and technical bands

Rule: price and SMA50 below a falling SMA200 is Bear; both above a rising SMA200 is Bull; otherwise Transition. Cheap is below 0.90×SMA200, Fair 0.90–1.05× and Hot above 1.05×. Spot bands translate GC=F / SI=F averages by the current spot-futures basis and are labelled SPOT_PROXY.

There is no forced regime classification gap today: all four meet the strict Bear test. Support identification does have a gap because prices are near 52-week lows and there are few repeatedly tested supports underneath; round numbers are risk references, not confirmed bottoms.

3. Price stage: gold and silver

Gold / GLD

• GC=F closed $3,943.40 on November 3; SMA50 $4,265.49, SMA200 $4,512.79; SMA200 fell 0.83% over 20 sessions.
• GC=F is at 3.1% of its 52-week closing range, 25.9% below the high; RSI14 34.5, five-day -3.2%, 20-day -5.8%.
• GLD closed $359.26; SMA50 $387.99, SMA200 $412.30; range position 2.5%, drawdown 27.6%, RSI14 35.4, five-day -3.5%, 20-day -6.0%.
• Support: spot $3,928–3,900, recent futures close low $3,898.90, then psychological $3,800; GLD $358.94, $355.78 and $354.67. Resistance: spot $3,945, $4,000 and $4,052.04; GLD $361.65, $371.07 and $387.99.
• Stage: low Bear consolidation. Strategic diversification holdings can be retained; new risk should be staged. A sustained move above $4,000 and $4,052, with GLD above $371.07, would improve the evidence. A break of recent lows pauses additions.

Silver / SLV

• SI=F closed $49.150 on November 3; SMA50 $60.965, SMA200 $70.481; SMA200 fell 2.88% over 20 sessions.
• SI=F is at 3.0% of its 52-week closing range, 57.3% below the high; RSI14 27.2, five-day -9.5%, 20-day -19.6%.
• SLV closed $44.84; SMA50 $55.13, SMA200 $63.86; range position 3.3%, drawdown 57.5%, RSI14 27.4, five-day -8.8%, 20-day -19.1%.
• Support: silver $49.15, $48.90 and $47.13; SLV $44.58 and $42.74. Resistance: silver $49.75–50.72, $60.97 and $63.63; SLV $45.57, $55.13 and $57.48.
• Stage: deep drawdown and oversold momentum, but the medium-term trend remains down. It fits only a small, staged satellite allocation; oversold alone is not confirmation.

4. Gold/silver ratio and relative value

The same-snapshot spot ratio is 79.79. Five-year GC=F / SI=F reference points are: 10th percentile 66.24, 20th 75.84, median 83.92, 80th 88.61, 90th 90.80. The November 3 futures ratio is about 80.27, around the 35.9th percentile.

Below about 75.84 silver is relatively expensive versus gold; 75.84–88.61 is broadly Fair; above 88.61 silver is relatively Cheap. Silver is currently low-Fair relative to gold, not Cheap. Technical cheapness and relative cheapness are different claims.

5. Macro environment

• U.S. 10-year TIPS real yield: 2.62%, FRED DFII10, November 2; prior 2.60%.
• U.S. nominal 10-year: 4.91%, FRED DGS10, November 2; Yahoo ^TNX completed November 3 close 4.952%.
• Dollar proxy DX-Y.NYB: 101.288 on November 3; SMA50 100.919, SMA200 99.653, about 1.3% below its 52-week high.
• NFCI: -0.487 for the week of October 23; negative means easier-than-average financial conditions.

Assessment: the dollar has eased from recent highs and the nominal yield is below 5%, but the 2.62% real yield remains high and DXY remains above both major averages. The backdrop is restrictive, marginally less so. Negative NFCI partly offsets it. Each FRED series retains its own observation date.

Sources: FRED DFII10 ↗, FRED DGS10 ↗, FRED NFCI ↗.

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: official SPDR archive 1,040.51 tonnes on November 2 → 1,037.66 on November 3, down 2.85 tonnes. Two dated official observations support the holdings change, but it is not an exact dollar cash flow; HOLDINGS_PROXY.
• SLV: official iShares page 15,759.44 tonnes / 506.678Moz / 561.05M shares on November 2 → 15,751.90 tonnes / 506.435Moz / 561.05M shares on November 3, down 7.54 tonnes / about 0.243Moz, with shares unchanged. It is a holdings change, not an exact cash flow.
• Slow monthly context: WGC reported about US$10bn / 67 tonnes of global gold-ETF inflows in September, holdings around 4,256 tonnes, and about 211 tonnes added in Q3. This is not a same-day GLD flow.

Sources: SPDR GLD archive ↗, iShares SLV ↗, WGC global gold ETFs ↗.

7. Slow supply and demand

• Gold: the latest WGC quarterly anchor used here is about 289 tonnes of Q2 2026 central-bank net buying and roughly 345 tonnes in H1. H1 was the lowest since 2022, but reserve diversification and continued purchase intent remain strategic support.
• Silver: World Silver Survey 2026 estimates industrial demand around 639.6Moz, photovoltaic demand 151.0Moz, and a 46.3Moz market deficit, the sixth consecutive deficit.
• Solar boundary: forecast 2026 PV silver demand falls about 19%. Thrifting, copper substitution and lower silver intensity prevent a linear conversion from solar installations to silver price.

These slow variables support a year-plus allocation case but do not override the current Bear regime or establish one uniquely verifiable intrinsic value.

Sources: WGC central banks ↗, World Silver Survey 2026 ↗.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenario mapping

The table uses today's observed mapping. Actual ETF prices retain timing, fee, cash, tracking-error and premium/discount effects.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: both metals remain in low-range consolidation. Small staged additions are more defensible than a one-shot bottom call. Watch gold $4,000 / $4,052 and GLD $371.07; silver needs a sustained move above $50.72 and SLV above $45.57. Breaks of recent lows stop acceleration.
• Cyclical, months: gold above about $4,265 and GLD above $387.99; silver above $60.97–63.63 and SLV above $55.13–57.48 would become Bear-to-Transition candidates.
• Strategic, year+: central-bank demand and reserve diversification support gold as a core diversifier. Silver's deficit adds upside elasticity, but solar thrifting, substitution, cyclicality and volatility argue for a smaller controlled satellite allocation.

10. Action map and data health

• Gold must hold $4,000 and then break $4,052.04 before increasing the pace of additions; below $3,898 pauses additions; above about $4,265 is stronger medium-term repair.
• GLD: hold $358.94 / $355.78 / $354.67; above $371.07 exits technical Cheap; above $387.99 is material medium-term repair.
• Silver: hold $49.15 / $48.90 / $47.13 and sustain above $50.72 for a controlled test; only $60.97–63.63 supports more risk.
• SLV: hold $44.58 / $42.74; $45.57 is the first recovery line; $55.13–57.48 is medium-term repair.
• If DFII10 rises above 2.8%, ^TNX returns above 5.1% and DXY breaks 102.58, tighten new-risk conditions further.

Data health: FMP quote and commodity worked; commodity values are futures-only cross-checks. Gold API and Trading Economics supplied same-day November 4 spot observations. Yahoo technical series end on the completed November 3 session. FRED DFII10 / DGS10 end November 2 and NFCI October 23, with frequency differences explicit. Official GLD and SLV holdings end November 3. Futures are not presented as spot, holdings changes are not exact cash flows, and technical Cheap is not intrinsic-value discount.