Gold & silver daily report · 2026-11-02

Spot rebounded in early Monday Asian trading, but the latest completed bars still leave gold, silver, GLD and SLV below falling 200-day averages. All four regimes remain Bear and all four assets are technical Cheap. Gold and GLD retain new 52-week closing lows. Recomputed RSI14 is 27.9 for gold futures, 22.4 for silver futures, 30.3 for GLD and 23.9 for SLV: oversold repair potential, not reversal evidence. Real yields remain high and the dollar remains elevated, so the macro backdrop is still restrictive.

Cheap/Fair/Hot describes technical position versus SMA200, not intrinsic value. Spot, futures and ETFs are kept separate.

1. Prices and ETF mapping

Observed mappings are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09113 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.89042. They are scenario estimates, not arbitrage conversions. FMP quote provided the latest completed GLD and SLV closes. FMP commodity returned explicitly labelled Gold Futures $3,904.20 and Silver Futures $49.725 at 2026-11-02 02:58 UTC; these are futures-only cross-checks and are never presented as spot. Both read-only endpoint groups returned normally.

Sources: Gold API gold ↗, Gold API silver ↗, Trading Economics gold ↗, Trading Economics silver ↗, Yahoo Finance ↗.

2. Regime, current zone and technical bands

Rule: price and SMA50 below a falling SMA200 is Bear; both above a rising SMA200 is Bull; otherwise Transition. Cheap is below 0.90×SMA200, Fair is 0.90–1.05×, Hot is above 1.05×. Spot bands use same-date futures averages translated by the current spot/futures basis and are labelled SPOT_PROXY.

There is no forced regime classification gap. There is a support-identification gap: gold, GLD and the current silver downswing have set fresh lows, so prices below the observed range lack repeatedly tested support. Day lows and round numbers are reference lines, not confirmed floors.

3. Price stage

Gold / GLD. GC=F completed October 30 at $3,898.90, versus SMA50 $4,294.80 and SMA200 $4,519.32; SMA200 fell 0.75% over 20 sessions. It is at 0.0% of its 52-week closing range, 26.7% below the high, with RSI14 27.9, five-day -2.7% and 20-day -6.3%. GLD closed $355.78, versus SMA50 $390.57 and SMA200 $412.92; it is at a new 52-week closing low, down 28.3% from the high, with RSI14 30.3. Spot reference support is about $3,895 / last-week $3,876 / psychological $3,800 and resistance $4,000 / $4,072.91 / about $4,295. GLD support is the $354.68 day low; resistance is $371.63 / $390.57. This is an oversold low Bear stage: hold strategic diversification, stage new risk, and avoid treating round numbers as a confirmed floor.

Silver / SLV. SI=F completed October 30 at $49.097, versus SMA50 $61.731 and SMA200 $70.883; SMA200 fell 2.40% over 20 sessions. It is at 3.2% of its 52-week closing range, 57.2% below the high, with RSI14 22.4, five-day -8.6% and 20-day -18.1%. SLV closed $44.60, versus SMA50 $55.82 and SMA200 $64.23; RSI14 is 23.9. Spot support is $49.68 / last-week $48.90 / $47.13; resistance is $50.09 / $61.73 / $65.08. SLV support is $44.11 / $42.74; resistance is $47.28 / $55.82 / $57.81. Deeply oversold can produce a rebound but does not end the Bear trend.

4. Gold/silver ratio

The synchronous Gold API spot ratio is 77.95. The five-year GC=F/SI=F distribution has a 10th percentile of 66.24, 20th of 75.80, median 83.92, 80th of 88.61 and 90th of 90.80. The October 30 completed futures ratio was 79.41, at about the 31.4th percentile. Silver is low-Fair relative to gold, but not cheap. The ratio fell from the weekend snapshot, showing modest silver outperformance in the rebound. Technical cheapness and relative cheapness are different.

5. Macro environment

• FRED 10Y TIPS real yield: 2.63%, observation 2026-10-29, previous 2.67%.
• FRED nominal 10Y: 4.98%, observation 2026-10-29; Yahoo ^TNX completed October 30 at 4.929%.
• DXY proxy DX-Y.NYB: 101.880 on October 30; SMA50 100.815, SMA200 99.632, about 0.7% below its 52-week high.
• NFCI: -0.487 for 2026-10-23, from -0.494; negative remains looser than historical average but tightened marginally.

Falling real and nominal yields offer modest marginal relief, but a 2.63% real yield is still high and DXY remains above both major averages. The overall macro mix is restrictive for non-yielding metals. Loose NFCI provides partial relief. Series frequencies differ and are not treated as one synchronous snapshot. Sources: FRED DFII10 ↗, FRED DGS10 ↗, FRED NFCI ↗.

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: the official SPDR archive currently ends at 1,043.36 tonnes on October 28 → 1,041.08 tonnes on October 29, down 2.28 tonnes. October 30 holdings are HOLDINGS_UNAVAILABLE; the October 29 move is a lagged HOLDINGS_PROXY, not exact dollar flow.
• SLV: official iShares observations show 15,541.85 tonnes, 499.682Moz and 553.30M shares on October 29 → 15,645.73 tonnes, 503.022Moz and 557.00M shares on October 30, an increase of 103.88 tonnes / about 3.34Moz / 3.70M shares. Two dated official observations support the holdings increase, but it is still not exact cash flow. October 30 NAV was $45.22.
• WGC monthly context: September global gold ETFs added about US$10bn / 67 tonnes, taking holdings to 4,256 tonnes. Q3 holdings increased 211 tonnes. This is slow monthly context, not daily GLD flow.

Sources: SPDR archive ↗, iShares SLV ↗, WGC ETF flows ↗.

7. Slow supply-demand variables

The latest directly verified WGC quarterly central-bank detail remains Q2 2026 at roughly 289 tonnes, and about 345 tonnes for H1. H1 was the lowest since 2022, but reserve diversification remains strategic support. The World Silver Survey 2026 estimates 639.6Moz industrial demand, 151.0Moz photovoltaic demand and a 46.3Moz market deficit, the sixth consecutive deficit. PV demand was forecast down about 19% year over year: thrifting, copper substitution and declining silver intensity constrain any linear installation-to-price extrapolation. These slow variables support the year-plus thesis but do not override the current Bear regime or prove a unique intrinsic value. Sources: WGC central banks ↗, World Silver Survey 2026 ↗.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenarios

Timing, fees, cash, tracking error and premium/discount can move realized ETF prices away from these estimates.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: all four assets are oversold. Use small staged entries, not a one-shot bottom call. Gold first needs $4,000 and $4,072.91, GLD $371.63, silver sustained trade above $50.09 and SLV $47.28. Support below fresh lows is unverified.
• Cyclical, months: gold around $4,295 and GLD $390.57; silver $61.73–65.08 and SLV $55.82–57.81 are Bear-to-Transition candidates, still requiring multiple closes and holdings confirmation.
• Strategic, year+: central-bank demand and reserve diversification support a core gold allocation. Silver's deficit creates more upside elasticity but PV thrifting, substitution, cyclicality and volatility call for a smaller satellite allocation.

10. Action map and data health

• Gold holding about $3,895 / $3,876, sustaining above $4,000 and then breaking $4,072.91 permits small staged additions; below $3,876 pause additions; $3,800 is only a psychological line; above about $4,295 is stronger repair.
• GLD support is the $354.68 day low; reclaiming $371.63 exits technical Cheap; $390.57 is the medium-term test.
• Silver holding $49.68 / $48.90 / $47.13 and sustaining above $50.09 permits only controlled probes; $61.73–65.08 is needed to add risk; below $47.13 slow further.
• SLV support is $44.11 / $42.74; $47.28 is the first reclaim and $55.82–57.81 is medium-term repair.
• If DFII10 returns above 2.8%, ^TNX holds above 5.1% and DXY breaks 102.58, tighten new-risk conditions further.

Data health: FMP quote and commodity endpoints worked; commodities were futures-only cross-checks. Gold API and Trading Economics provided same-day November 2 spot cross-checks; the gold difference is about 0.24% and silver about 0.82%. Yahoo technical series were freshly retrieved through completed October 30 bars. FRED public CSV did not return inside the bounded timeout after one retry, so DFII10/DGS10 retain the last verified October 29 observations and NFCI October 23, labelled FRED_REFRESH_TIMEOUT rather than fabricated updates. Official GLD holdings end October 29, so October 30 is HOLDINGS_UNAVAILABLE; SLV holdings end October 30. No new completed ETF session elapsed over the weekend, so critical ETF/history prices do not trigger STALE_CRITICAL. Futures were not presented as spot, holdings as cash flow, or technical cheapness as intrinsic-value discount.