Gold & silver daily report · 2026-11-07

Gold and silver futures rebounded in the completed November 6 session, while GLD fell and SLV was nearly flat. All four assets remain below their 50-day and 200-day averages, with falling 200-day averages, so the regime remains Bear. Gold spot and GLD are at the low end of Technical Fair and close to the Cheap boundary; silver and SLV remain Technical Cheap. Lower nominal and real Treasury yields offer marginal relief, but a dollar index near its 52-week high keeps the macro backdrop restrictive.

“Cheap / Fair / Hot” means fixed technical bands around the 200-day average (0.90x / 1.10x), not intrinsic value. Spot, futures and ETFs are kept separate.

1. Latest prices and spot-to-ETF mapping

Markets are closed for the weekend. Both spot-source differences are below 0.4%, so no STALE_CRITICAL flag applies. Point-in-time mappings are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09148 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.90012. Fees, cash, premiums/discounts and timing create deviations. FMP GCUSD $4,079.60 and SIUSD $51.942 on November 6 are explicitly futures and used only as cross-checks.

2. Regime, current zone and exact technical bands

The strict rule is completed close below the 200-day average, 50-day below 200-day, and a falling 200-day average versus roughly 20 sessions earlier. Gold/GLD 200-day averages fell about 1.0%–1.1%; silver/SLV fell about 3.6%–3.8%. There is no classification gap. Gold spot is only about 0.5% above the Cheap boundary, so this is a boundary reading.

3. Price stage: gold and silver

Gold

• Yahoo GC=F completed November 6 at $4,079.50; 50-day $4,230.51, 200-day $4,501.52.
• 52-week closing range $3,898.90–$5,318.40; current position 12.7%, drawdown from high 23.3%.
• RSI(14) 47.5; five-day return +4.6%, 20-day return -3.2%. The rebound is meaningful but has not reversed the downtrend.
• Support: $4,051 / $4,036 / $4,000 / $3,898.90. Resistance: $4,116, recent high $4,242, and 50-day $4,231.
• Meaning: existing exposure can be held with risk controls; add gradually. A sustained move above $4,116 and then $4,231–4,242 is needed before increasing cyclical risk. Below $4,000, pause accelerated buying.

Silver

• Yahoo SI=F completed November 6 at $51.965; 50-day $59.979, 200-day $69.853.
• 52-week closing range $47.794–$115.08; current position 6.2%, drawdown from high 54.8%.
• RSI(14) 38.0; five-day return +5.8%, 20-day return -14.4%. This is an oversold rebound with weak medium-term momentum.
• Support: $51.20 / $48.55 / $47.79. Resistance: $52.37, 50-day $59.98, and Fair boundary $62.87.
• Meaning: only small controlled probes are appropriate. Holding above $52.37 is a first step; $59.98–62.87 is required for a Bear-to-Transition candidate. Below $48.55, slow new buying.

4. Gold/silver ratio and relative value

The same-time spot ratio is about 78.20; the synchronized Yahoo futures close ratio is 78.50. Five-year daily context: 10th percentile 66.39, median 83.91, 90th percentile 90.78. The current close is near the 27th percentile.

Conclusion: silver is fair but slightly expensive relative to gold, not clearly cheap. Silver being Technical Cheap outright is different from being cheap versus gold. Relative appeal would improve materially if the ratio moved toward or above 84.

5. Macro backdrop

The combined backdrop is restrictive, with marginal relief from lower yields. High real yields and a firm dollar are the main headwinds; loose NFCI and falling yields are cushions. The initial FRED request timed out; the single parallel retry succeeded. Observation dates are shown because the series have different frequencies.

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: the official SPDR archive shows 1,040.51 tonnes on November 4 → 1,040.51 tonnes on November 5, unchanged. Two dated observations support that fact, but it remains a HOLDINGS_PROXY, not exact cash flow.
• SLV: the official iShares page shows 15,751.90 tonnes, 506.435Moz and 561.05M shares on November 5 → 15,709.79 tonnes, 505.081Moz and 559.55M shares on November 6, down about 42.11 tonnes / 1.354Moz / 1.50M shares. This is a holdings change, not a precise dollar redemption figure.
• WGC October context: global gold ETFs added about US$2.7bn / 19 tonnes, reaching roughly 4,275 tonnes and US$542bn AUM. Slow-frequency global inflows can coexist with flat GLD holdings this week.

The SLV holdings decline at depressed prices is a short-term weak signal; flat GLD holdings are neutral.

7. Slow-moving supply and demand

• Gold: WGC Q3 2026 central-bank net buying was about 321 tonnes, above the five-year quarterly average near 227 tonnes; year-to-date buying was 675 tonnes, up 6% year over year. A material share is estimated rather than fully disclosed country by country.
• Gold supply: Q3 mine production was about 1,071 tonnes, up 3% year over year; recycling was about 314 tonnes, down 8%. No supply shock alone explains the short-term price move.
• Silver: World Silver Survey 2026 estimates industrial demand around 639.6Moz, photovoltaic demand 151.0Moz, and a 46.3Moz market deficit, the sixth consecutive deficit.
• PV boundary: photovoltaic silver demand is forecast down about 19%; thrifting, copper substitution and lower silver intensity limit demand elasticity. Installation growth should not be extrapolated linearly into price.

These slow variables support a year-plus allocation case but do not override the Bear regime or establish a unique intrinsic value.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenarios

The table uses today’s point-in-time mappings. Fees, cash, tracking error, timing and premiums/discounts can move realized ETF prices.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical (weeks): both metals are rebounding within Bear. Small staged buying is acceptable, but do not chase. Watch $4,051 / $4,116 for gold and $51.20 / $52.37 for silver.
• Cyclical (months): gold must reclaim $4,231–4,242 and GLD $384.96; silver must reclaim $59.98–62.87 and SLV $54.22–56.96 before qualifying as Bear-to-Transition candidates.
• Strategic (year+): gold can remain a core diversifier supported by central-bank and ETF demand. Silver’s long-running deficit offers more upside elasticity, but PV thrifting, substitution, cyclicality and volatility argue for a smaller controlled satellite allocation.

10. Action map and Data health

• Gold: hold $4,051 and break $4,116 to retain tactical exposure; break $4,231–4,242 before raising cyclical risk. Below $4,000, pause new buying; below $3,898.90, turn defensive.
• GLD: hold $370.12; reclaim $384.96 for clearer cyclical repair; tighten risk near $354.67–355.78.
• Silver: hold $52.37 for a small probe; reclaim $59.98–62.87 before raising risk. Below $48.55 slow buying; below $47.79 turn defensive.
• SLV: reclaim $54.22–56.96 for medium-term confirmation; tighten risk below $44.11.
• If DFII10 rises above 2.8%, ^TNX above 5.1%, and DXY above 102.95, reduce buying speed further.

Data health: FMP quote and commodity endpoints worked; commodity values are futures-only cross-checks. Gold API and Trading Economics supplied weekend-carry / November 6 spot cross-checks. Yahoo completed daily bars run through November 6. FRED DFII10/DGS10 run through November 5; NFCI through October 30. Official GLD holdings run through November 5 and SLV through November 6. Futures were not presented as spot, holdings changes were not called cash flows, and technical cheapness was not presented as intrinsic value. No critical field is stale by more than one completed trading day.