Gold & silver daily report · 2026-11-10

As of the afternoon of November 10 in Beijing, gold spot was about $4,102.50 and silver spot about $52.621. The completed November 9 daily bars keep gold, silver, GLD and SLV in a Bear regime. Gold and GLD sit near the low end of their technical fair zones, while silver and SLV remain technically cheap. Official November 9 holdings rose modestly for GLD and fell for SLV. Macro remains restrictive because real yields are high and the dollar is above its longer averages, although nominal yields and the dollar have eased from recent highs.

Cheap / Fair / Hot is a fixed technical location versus the 200-day average (0.90x / 1.10x), not intrinsic value. Spot, futures and ETFs are kept separate.

1. Current prices and spot-to-ETF mapping

The two spot cross-check gaps were below 0.3%. The point-in-time mapping is GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09251 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.91484. Because the ETF prices are November 9 closes while spot is intraday November 10, the mapping is a TIMING_MISMATCH_ESTIMATE; fees, cash, premiums/discounts and tracking also matter. Gold API gold ↗ | Gold API silver ↗ | Trading Economics ↗ | Yahoo Finance ↗

2. Regime, current zone and exact bands

A Bull or Bear label requires the completed close, 50-day average, 200-day average and the roughly 20-session slope of the 200-day average to align; otherwise the label is Transition.

All four November 9 closes were below their 200-day averages, their 50-day averages were below the 200-day averages, and the 200-day slopes were negative. The 200-day averages fell about 1.1% over roughly 20 sessions for gold/GLD and about 3.9%–4.0% for silver/SLV. There is no classification gap today. Gold spot is only about 1.4% above its cheap boundary; silver spot remains about 16.0% below the bottom of fair.

3. Price stage: gold and silver

Gold

• Current spot is $4,102.50. Yahoo GC=F completed November 9 at $4,114.50, below its 50-day $4,222.11 and 200-day $4,497.17 averages.
• The 52-week range is $3,879.30–$5,586.20. The completed close sits at roughly 13.8% of that range and is 26.3% below the high.
• RSI(14) is 48.1; five-session return +3.7%, 20-session return -1.8%. Repair is visible, but the medium trend has not reversed.
• Support: $4,047 / $4,000 / $3,879. Resistance: $4,115–4,127, then the 50-day average and 20-day high at $4,222–4,225.
• Meaning: hold a strategic core and add only in tranches. A completed close above $4,225 supports more cyclical risk; below $4,000 pauses additions.

Silver

• Current spot is $52.621. Yahoo SI=F completed November 9 at $52.564, below its 50-day $59.687 and 200-day $69.611 averages.
• The 52-week range is $48.015–$121.30. The completed close sits at about 6.2% of that range and is 56.7% below the high.
• RSI(14) is 34.3; five-session return +3.6%, 20-session return -12.6%. This is still a weaker rebound from near-oversold conditions.
• Support: $52.00 / $48.55 / $48.02. Resistance: $53.58, then the 20-day high and 50-day average at $59.16–59.69, and fair-zone entry at $62.65.
• Meaning: only small, controlled starter risk is justified. Reclaiming $59.69–62.65 would create a more credible Bear-to-Transition candidate; below $48.55 shifts to defense.

4. Gold/silver ratio and relative value

The same-time spot gold/silver ratio is about 77.96. Synchronized Yahoo futures daily bars over five years show a 10th percentile near 66.26, median 81.85, and 90th percentile 90.40.

A high ratio means silver is cheap relative to gold. Today silver is fair but somewhat expensive relative to gold, because the ratio is between the 10th percentile and median. Silver being technically cheap versus its own 200-day average is not the same as being cheap relative to gold. A ratio near 82 would be closer to five-year neutral; above 90 would indicate clearly cheap relative silver.

5. Macro regime

The macro regime is restrictive but easing at the margin. High real yields and a dollar above longer averages are the main headwinds; softer nominal yields, a dollar below its recent high and a negative NFCI provide offsets. FRED DFII10 ↗ | FRED DGS10 ↗ | FRED NFCI ↗

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: the official SPDR archive moved from 1,041.37 tonnes on November 6 to 1,042.51 tonnes on November 9, up 1.14 tonnes. Two official dated observations support the holdings-change fact, but it is a HOLDINGS_PROXY, not a dollar flow.
• SLV: the official iShares page moved from 15,709.79 tonnes / 505.081Moz / 559.55M shares on November 6 to 15,695.75 tonnes / 504.630Moz / 559.05M shares on November 9, down about 14.04 tonnes / 0.451Moz / 0.50M shares. This is holdings change, not cash redemption value.
• October WGC context: global gold ETFs added about US$2.7bn / 19 tonnes, reaching roughly 4,275 tonnes and US$542bn AUM; North America had a modest US$512mn monthly outflow.

The November 9 proxy shows mild gold accumulation and mild silver reduction. It is consistent with silver's weaker medium-term chart, but one day does not establish a new trend. Official SPDR GLD archive ↗ | iShares SLV ↗ | WGC gold ETFs ↗

7. Slow-moving supply and demand

• Gold: WGC estimates Q3 2026 central-bank net purchases at about 321 tonnes, above the five-year quarterly average of 227 tonnes; year-to-date purchases reached about 675 tonnes, up 6% y/y. Reported purchases were only about 120 tonnes, so roughly 63% was estimated unreported activity rather than fully disclosed country data.
• Gold supply: Q3 mine production was about 1,071 tonnes, up 3% y/y; recycling about 314.5 tonnes, down 8%.
• Silver: World Silver Survey 2026 forecasts industrial demand of about 639.6Moz, photovoltaic demand 151.0Moz, and a 46.3Moz market deficit, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Including 30Moz of net ETP investment, the balance shortfall is about 76.3Moz.
• PV boundary: forecast PV silver demand falls about 19% y/y in 2026. Thrifting, silver-coated copper, copper plating and declining loadings cap demand elasticity, so installation growth cannot be mapped linearly into silver prices.

These slow variables support the strategic case but do not override the current Bear regime or prove a unique intrinsic value. WGC Q3 2026 ↗ | World Silver Survey 2026 ↗

8. Spot-to-ETF scenarios

The scenarios use today's observed mapping and are TIMING_MISMATCH_ESTIMATE; fees, cash, tracking and premiums/discounts can shift realized ETF prices.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: both metals are repairing inside a Bear regime. Gold can be accumulated modestly above $4,047 without chasing; silver should remain smaller and first clear $53.58.
• Cyclical, months: reclaiming the 50-day averages—gold/GLD at $4,222/$384.37 and silver/SLV at $59.69/$53.98—is the first improvement. A regime reversal still requires better price, moving-average order and 200-day slope.
• Strategic, year+: gold remains suitable as a core diversifier, supported by central banks and global ETF demand. Silver offers more upside elasticity from a structural deficit, but thrifting, substitution, industrial cyclicality and volatility argue for a smaller satellite allocation.

10. Action lines and data health

• Gold: holding $4,047 permits tranches; a completed close above $4,225 raises tactical risk; below $4,000 pauses additions and below $3,879 turns defensive.
• GLD: hold $369.76; reclaim $384.37–384.88 for first cyclical confirmation; tighten risk near $354.67.
• Silver: break $53.58 to retain starter risk; reclaim $59.69–62.65 before adding; below $48.55 turns defensive.
• SLV: reclaim $53.98–56.75 for medium-term repair; tighten risk near $44.11–43.51.
• If DFII10 later rises above 2.8%, ^TNX returns above 5.1%, and DXY breaks 102.95, slow buying further.

Data health: the exact FMP namespace was available; GLD and SLV were used only as quote cross-checks and matched Yahoo's November 9 closes. Gold API and Trading Economics supplied same-day November 10 spot cross-checks. Yahoo delivered all six daily series, and every indicator was calculated locally from consistent completed closes. FRED public CSV failed on the initial request and sole retry, so dated prior-verified DFII10, DGS10 and NFCI values are explicitly FRED_REUSE_FALLBACK; ^TNX is only a market cross-check. Official GLD and SLV holdings are dated November 9. Futures were not presented as spot, holdings changes were not presented as cash flows, and technical cheapness was not presented as intrinsic-value discount.