Gold & silver daily report · 2026-11-09

By Monday morning in Beijing, precious metals are trading into the new week, but the US ETFs do not yet have a new completed close. The latest completed daily series remains November 6: gold, silver, GLD and SLV are below their 50- and 200-day averages, with falling 200-day averages, so all remain in Bear regimes. Live gold spot is back in the low technical Fair zone and silver remains technically Cheap. This is a rebound inside Bear, not a close-confirmed trend reversal.

Cheap / Fair / Hot is a fixed technical band around SMA200 (0.90x / 1.10x), not an intrinsic-value estimate. Spot, futures and ETFs are labelled separately.

1. Current prices and spot-to-ETF mapping

Both spot cross-check differences are below 0.2%. Observed mapping factors are GLD ≈ gold spot × 0.09047 and SLV ≈ silver spot × 0.88278. Because ETFs remain at the November 6 close while spot is trading on November 9, these are timing-mismatched scenario estimates; fees, cash, premiums/discounts and tracking also matter. FMP commodity values of $4,129.30 / $53.03 are explicitly futures cross-checks, not spot.

2. Regime, current zone and exact technical bands

The strict rule uses the November 6 completed close below SMA200, SMA50 below SMA200, and SMA200 below its level about 20 sessions earlier. Gold / GLD SMA200 fell roughly 1.0%–1.1%; silver / SLV fell roughly 3.6%–3.8%. There is no classification gap. Gold spot is about 1.6% above the Cheap boundary; silver spot remains about 15.6% below the Fair-zone floor.

3. Price stage: gold and silver

Gold

• Live spot is $4,117.50, still below the completed-series SMA50 of $4,230.42 and SMA200 of $4,501.50. Yahoo GC=F completed at $4,074.90 on November 6.
• Completed-close 52-week range: $3,898.90–$5,318.40; November 6 position about 12.4%; peak drawdown 23.4%. Live spot does not replace a completed close in this calculation.
• RSI(14) 44.1; five-session return +4.5%; 20-session return -3.4%. The live rise strengthens the short rebound, but indicators remain through the completed session.
• Support: $4,051 / $4,000 / $3,898.90. Resistance: $4,190.60, then SMA50 $4,230.42.
• Meaning: hold existing exposure with risk controls and add only in tranches. A completed close above $4,190–4,230 would justify more cyclical risk; below $4,000, pause accelerated buying.

Silver

• Live spot is $53.093, still below SMA50 $59.976 and SMA200 $69.852. Yahoo SI=F completed at $51.803 on November 6.
• Completed-close 52-week range: $47.794–$115.08; November 6 position about 6.0%; drawdown 55.0%.
• RSI(14) 34.2; five-session return +5.5%; 20-session return -14.6%. Spot has crossed $52.37 intraday, but not on a completed daily bar.
• Support: $52.37 / $49.10 / $47.79. Resistance: SMA50 $59.98, then the Fair-zone floor $62.87.
• Meaning: only a small, controlled probe is warranted. A completed close holding $52.37 is step one; $59.98–62.87 is needed for a Bear-to-Transition candidate. Below $49.10, slow additions.

4. Gold/silver ratio and relative value

The same-time spot ratio is about 77.55. On synchronized Yahoo futures closes over five years, the 10th percentile is 66.24, median 83.92, and 90th percentile 90.80. The current ratio sits between the 10th percentile and median, near the lower quartile of that distribution.

Silver is fair but slightly expensive relative to gold, not clearly cheap. Silver can be technically Cheap versus its own SMA200 while not cheap relative to gold. A ratio near 84 or higher would improve silver's relative-value case materially.

5. Macro environment

Overall: restrictive, with marginal relief from lower yields. High real yields and a strong dollar are the main headwinds; a negative NFCI and declining yields are buffers. Each FRED field retains its own observation date; weekly or lagged data are not represented as same-day values.

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: the latest verified SPDR official archive shows 1,040.51 tonnes on November 4 → 1,040.51 tonnes on November 5, unchanged. The November 9 archive request returned no valid response on the initial request and sole retry, so this is HOLDINGS_PROXY_REUSE, not a same-day flow fact.
• SLV: the iShares page read on November 9 still shows November 6 as its latest NAV date. The latest verified holdings are 15,751.90 tonnes, 506.435Moz and 561.05M shares on November 5 → 15,709.79 tonnes, 505.081Moz and 559.55M shares on November 6, down about 42.11 tonnes / 1.354Moz / 1.50M shares. This is a HOLDINGS_PROXY, not exact dollar redemptions.
• WGC October context: global gold ETFs added about US$2.7bn / 19 tonnes, reaching roughly 4,275 tonnes and US$542bn AUM; North America had roughly US$512mn of net outflows.

SLV holdings falling while price remains depressed is a weak tactical signal; the latest unchanged GLD holdings are neutral. The US ETFs do not yet have a November 9 completed-session holdings observation.

7. Slow supply-demand variables

• Gold: WGC estimates Q3 2026 central-bank net buying at about 321 tonnes, above the five-year quarterly average near 227 tonnes; year-to-date buying was about 675 tonnes, up 6% year over year. Reported buying was only 120 tonnes and about 63% of the total was estimated unreported activity.
• Gold supply: Q3 mine production was about 1,071 tonnes, up 3% year over year; recycling was about 314 tonnes, down 8%. No supply shock explains the daily move by itself.
• Silver: World Silver Survey 2026 estimates industrial demand around 639.6Moz, photovoltaic demand 151.0Moz, and a 46.3Moz deficit, the sixth consecutive annual deficit.
• PV boundary: forecast PV silver use falls roughly 19%; thrifting, copper substitution and lower silver loadings limit the sensitivity to installation growth.

These slow variables support the year-plus allocation case but do not override the current Bear regime or prove a unique intrinsic value.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenario mapping

The scenario table uses this report's observed mapping factors and is labelled TIMING_MISMATCH_ESTIMATE because ETF and spot timestamps differ. Actual prices also vary with fees, cash, tracking error and premiums/discounts.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: both metals are rebounding inside Bear regimes. Small tranches are reasonable, but do not chase; watch gold $4,051 / $4,190 and a completed silver close holding $52.37.
• Cyclical, months: gold above $4,190–4,230 and GLD above $384.96; silver above $59.98–62.87 and SLV above $54.21–56.96 would create Bear-to-Transition candidates.
• Strategic, year+: gold remains a core diversifier supported by central-bank and ETF demand. Silver's deficit offers more upside elasticity, but thrifting, substitution, cyclicality and volatility justify a smaller satellite allocation.

10. Action lines and Data health

• Gold holding $4,051 and completing above $4,190: retain tactical exposure; above $4,230, raise cyclical risk. Below $4,000, pause additions; below $3,898.90, turn defensive.
• GLD: hold $370.12; above $384.96 is clearer cyclical repair; near $355.78, tighten risk.
• Silver: a completed close holding $52.37 supports a small probe; above $59.98–62.87, increase risk. Below $49.10, slow additions; below $47.79, turn defensive.
• SLV: above $54.21–56.96 confirms medium-term repair; near $44.11, tighten risk.
• If DFII10 rises above 2.8%, ^TNX returns above 5.1%, and DXY breaks 102.58, reduce buying speed further.

Data health: the exact FMP namespace was discovered; GLD / SLV quotes were available and matched the November 6 Yahoo closes. FMP commodity values are futures cross-checks only. Gold API and Trading Economics provide same-day November 9 spot cross-checks. The current Yahoo requests returned no valid response; because there is no newer completed US trading session after November 6, technicals reuse the November 6 Yahoo close series verified in the November 8 run and are labelled YAHOO_VERIFIED_SERIES_REUSE. Critical prices remain verified by two spot sources and FMP ETF quotes, so STALE_CRITICAL is not triggered. FRED was successfully read today. The GLD official archive returned no valid response; the SLV official page remains through November 6. Futures are not spot, holdings change is not cash flow, and technical Cheap is not an intrinsic-value discount.