Gold & silver daily report · 2026-11-11

On the morning of November 11 in Beijing, gold spot was about $4,048.40/oz and silver spot about $52.549/oz. Completed November 10 bars keep gold, silver, GLD and SLV in a Bear regime. Gold and GLD sit barely inside the lower edge of technical fair, while silver and SLV remain technically cheap. High real yields, nominal yields and the dollar keep macro restrictive; official GLD holdings edged down and SLV holdings were unchanged.

Cheap / Fair / Hot is a fixed technical location versus the 200-day average (0.90x / 1.10x), not intrinsic value. Spot, futures and ETFs are kept separate.

1. Current prices and spot-to-ETF mapping

Both spot cross-check gaps were below 0.3%. The observed mapping is GLD ≈ gold × 0.09124 and SLV ≈ silver × 0.88451. ETFs are November 10 closes while spot is intraday November 11, so this is a TIMING_MISMATCH_ESTIMATE; fees, cash, premiums/discounts and tracking also matter. Gold API gold ↗ | Gold API silver ↗ | Trading Economics ↗ | Yahoo Finance ↗

2. Regime, current zone and exact bands

A Bull or Bear label requires completed price, SMA50, SMA200 and the roughly 20-session SMA200 slope to align; otherwise the label is Transition.

All four completed November 10 closes were below SMA50 and SMA200, SMA50 was below SMA200, and the SMA200 slopes were negative. The roughly 20-session SMA200 declines were 1.16%–1.20% for gold/GLD and 4.27%–4.36% for silver/SLV. There is no classification gap today. Gold spot is only about 0.14% above cheap and GLD only about $0.03 above its boundary, so the boundary crossing is not a structural change.

3. Price stage: gold and silver

Gold

• Spot is $4,048.40. Yahoo GC=F completed November 10 at $4,030.20, below SMA50 $4,213.09 and SMA200 $4,491.91.
• The 52-week range is $3,879.30–$5,586.20. The close is at roughly 8.8% of the range and 27.9% below the high.
• Wilder RSI(14) is 44.3; five-session return +2.3%, 20-session return -3.5%. The prior rebound has not reversed the medium downtrend.
• Support: cheap boundary $4,042.72, round number $4,000, 20-session low $3,898.90, and 52-week low $3,879.30. Resistance: 20-session high $4,181.10 and SMA50 $4,213.09.
• Meaning: hold a strategic core; add only in tranches above $4,043. A completed close above $4,181–4,213 supports more cyclical risk; below $4,000 pauses additions.

Silver

• Spot is $52.549. Yahoo SI=F completed November 10 at $51.101, below SMA50 $59.385 and SMA200 $69.291.
• The 52-week range is $48.125–$121.30. The close is at roughly 4.1% of the range and 57.9% below the high.
• Wilder RSI(14) is 36.9; five-session return +3.1%, 20-session return -13.6%. This remains a weak rebound near oversold territory, not a trend reversal.
• Support: completed futures close $51.10, 20-session low $49.10, and 52-week low $48.125. Resistance: 20-session high $57.71, SMA50 $59.38, and fair-zone entry $62.36.
• Meaning: only small, controlled starter risk is justified. Reclaiming $57.71–59.38 is the first improvement; $62.36 exits technical cheap, while below $49.10 turns defensive.

4. Gold/silver ratio and relative value

The same-round spot ratio is approximately 77.04. Synchronized Yahoo futures over five years show a 10th percentile near 66.34, median 83.92, and 90th percentile 90.79; the November 10 futures ratio was about 78.87.

Because a higher ratio means cheaper silver relative to gold, silver is fair but somewhat expensive relative to gold, not clearly cheap. Technical cheapness versus its own SMA200 is distinct from relative cheapness. A ratio near 84 is closer to five-year neutral; above 91 would indicate clearly cheap relative silver.

5. Macro environment

The combined environment is restrictive and recently tighter. High real yields, nominal yields and the dollar are the main headwinds. A negative NFCI cushions the picture but is a materially lagged weekly observation. FRED DFII10 ↗ | FRED DGS10 ↗ | FRED NFCI ↗

6. ETF holdings and flow proxies

• GLD: the official SPDR archive moved from 1,042.51 tonnes on November 9 to 1,042.22 tonnes on November 10, down 0.29 tonnes. Two dated official observations support a holdings decrease, but this remains a HOLDINGS_PROXY, not a dollar cash flow.
• SLV: the official iShares page shows 15,695.75 tonnes / 504.630Moz / 559.05M shares on November 9 and the same values on November 10. Daily holdings and shares were unchanged; this is not an exact cash subscription/redemption measure.
• October WGC context: global gold ETFs added about US$2.7bn / 19 tonnes, reaching roughly 4,275 tonnes and US$542bn AUM; North America had a modest US$512mn monthly outflow.

The latest official daily proxies show no strong new sponsorship: GLD edged lower and SLV was flat. One day is insufficient to establish a new trend. Official SPDR GLD archive ↗ | iShares SLV ↗ | WGC gold ETFs ↗

7. Slow-moving supply and demand

• Gold: WGC estimates Q3 2026 central-bank net purchases at about 321 tonnes, above the five-year quarterly average of 227 tonnes; year-to-date purchases reached about 675 tonnes, up 6% y/y. Reported purchases were about 120 tonnes, so roughly 63% was estimated unreported activity rather than fully disclosed country data.
• Gold supply: Q3 mine output was about 1,071 tonnes, up 3% y/y; recycling about 314.5 tonnes, down 8%.
• Silver: World Silver Survey 2026 forecasts industrial demand around 639.6Moz, photovoltaic demand 151.0Moz, and a 46.3Moz market deficit, the sixth consecutive shortfall. Including 30Moz of net ETP investment, the balance shortfall is about 76.3Moz.
• PV boundary: 2026 PV silver demand is forecast down about 19% y/y. Thrifting, silver-coated copper, copper plating and declining loadings cap demand elasticity, so installation growth cannot be mapped linearly into silver prices.

These are slow variables that support the year-plus case but do not override the current Bear regime or prove a unique intrinsic value. WGC Q3 2026 ↗ | World Silver Survey 2026 ↗

8. Spot-to-ETF scenarios

Scenarios use the observed mapping and are TIMING_MISMATCH_ESTIMATE; fees, cash, tracking and premiums/discounts can shift realized ETF prices.

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: gold is near the cheap boundary but remains in Bear; small tranches are preferable to chasing. Silver is more volatile and should remain smaller until it clears $57.71.
• Cyclical, months: reclaiming SMA50—gold/GLD at $4,213/$383.59 and silver/SLV at $59.38/$53.70—is the first improvement. A regime reversal still requires better price, moving-average order and SMA200 slope.
• Strategic, year+: gold remains suitable as a core diversifier, supported by central-bank demand and global ETF holdings. Silver adds structural-deficit upside, but thrifting, substitution, industrial cyclicality and volatility argue for a smaller satellite allocation.

10. Action lines and data health

• Gold: holding $4,042.72 permits tranches; reclaim $4,181–4,213 on a completed close before raising risk; below $4,000 pauses additions and below $3,899 turns defensive.
• GLD: hold $369.33; reclaim $382.71–383.59 for first repair confirmation; tighten risk near $355.78–354.67.
• Silver: holding futures $51.10 permits only starter risk; reclaim $57.71–59.38 before adding and clear $62.36 to exit technical cheap; below $49.10 turns defensive.
• SLV: reclaim $52.26–53.70 for medium repair; tighten risk near $44.60–44.11.
• If DFII10 rises above 2.8%, ^TNX above 5.1%, and DXY breaks 102.95, slow buying further.

Data health: the exact FMP namespace was discovered and returned GLD/SLV quotes; it was only a cross-check and matched Yahoo's November 10 closes. Gold API and Trading Economics supplied same-round November 11 spot observations. Yahoo delivered all six daily series; incomplete November 11 futures and dollar bars were excluded, so all indicators use consistent completed closes through November 10. FRED public CSV succeeded: DFII10/DGS10 are dated November 9 and NFCI October 30. Official GLD and SLV holdings are dated November 10. Futures were not presented as spot, holdings changes were not presented as cash flows, and technical cheapness was not presented as intrinsic-value discount.