Credit risk daily report · 2026-11-10

Beijing time: 2026-11-10 17:53 CST. Listed-security history runs through the completed November 9 U.S. session; the freshest VIX session quote is timestamped November 10 at 04:37 EST, and each FRED series carries its own observation date. Public overall level: Yellow. Pre-planned cash-bullet status: watch. This is risk monitoring, not investment advice, and no trade is executed.

1. Five-indicator dashboard

HY OAS is the highest-weight signal and the key one-to-three-month credit-event lead indicator. Its raw ICE/FRED index level is not redistributed publicly. The internal threshold check did not activate the HY yellow override, but the public framework stays Yellow/watch because a withheld highest-weight value cannot support an all-green public conclusion.

2. What changed / what matters

• HY OAS first: the latest FRED observation is dated November 6; its raw level remains withheld, while the internal threshold check stays below the >5% yellow boundary.
• KRE rose 1.73% on November 9 and remains well above the $60 warning line, without price or volume add-ons.
• The freshest FMP VIX quote is 19.98, below 25; Yahoo shows 19.73 49 minutes earlier, and the November 6 FRED value is asynchronous.
• All six large banks advanced on November 9; none meets the joint >5% loss and >2× volume condition.
• T10YIE is still green at 2.22%, but it sits close to the 2.20% recession-warning boundary.

3. Market detail

All listed-security returns come from one consistent Yahoo adjusted-close/volume series with 65 usable observations per security, nonzero price denominators, 30 prior volume observations, no split events and no >50% adjusted-close anomalies. Query1 succeeded for every required symbol, so query2, FMP historical fallback and Stooq were not used. FMP quotes and the current callable finance lookup independently matched the November 9 closes for KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, KBE, LQD and SPY within 1%; no threshold-critical discrepancy was found. FMP was discovered through the exact mcp__financial_modeling_prep__ namespace and its read-only quote endpoints succeeded.

Signal 1 is inactive because no monitored bank fell more than 5% in one day with volume above 2×. Signal 2 is inactive because KBE lost only 0.15% over five sessions. Signal 3 is inactive because LQD +0.93% minus SPY +0.08% equals +0.85 percentage point, not strictly above +3.

4. Credit, volatility and inflation boundary

Direct fredgraph.csv reads were isolated by series with redirect following and a 20-second hard timeout. The first concurrent reads timed out; the single permitted bounded retry succeeded for all three series. BAMLH0A0HYM2 is dated November 6, T10YIE 2.22% is dated November 9, and VIXCLS 25.64 is dated November 6. None is STALE_CRITICAL at the November 10 pre-market check. VIXCLS is an official dated cross-check, not a same-time quote; the freshest November 10 FMP session quote controls the VIX row. FMP 19.98 and Yahoo 19.73 differ by 1.27%, but both remain more than 20% below the 25 threshold, so the discrepancy is disclosed but is not threshold-critical.

5. Overall algorithm and deploy implication

Any deep red, or at least three reds, makes overall deep red. One or two reds, or at least three yellows with none red, makes overall red. One or two yellows makes overall yellow. HY OAS yellow alone overrides to red. All five must be publicly observable and green before an all-green public claim.

Deploy implication: Yellow means preparation and watchlist review only. The public status is watch, not an instruction to deploy. A red reading would activate review of the pre-planned staged cash-bullet framework; deep red would prompt crisis-playbook review. No automatic execution is recommended.

6. Data health and boundaries

Data health: FMP exact-namespace read-only quotes succeeded for all listed securities and VIX; Yahoo query1 supplied the consistent adjusted history, and the independent finance lookup provided a third quote check. Direct FRED covered all required macro series. Query2, FMP history and Stooq were not needed. There is no STALE_CRITICAL item. Public confidence is deliberately capped because HY OAS is DATA_WITHHELD, and its raw value is neither published nor used to claim an all-green state.