Credit risk daily report · 2026-11-08

Beijing time: 2026-11-08 13:04 CST. Listed-market data run through the latest completed U.S. session on November 6; FRED observations carry their own dates. Overall: Yellow. Pre-planned cash-bullet status: watch. This is risk monitoring, not investment advice, and no trade is executed.

1. Five-indicator dashboard

HY OAS is the highest-weight signal and the key one-to-three-month credit-event lead indicator. Its dated observation was recovered, but the raw ICE/FRED index level is not redistributed publicly. The internal threshold check did not activate the HY yellow override; the public report still does not use the withheld value to claim that all five indicators are green.

2. What changed / what matters

• HY OAS first: the bounded FRED retry succeeded with a November 5 observation; the raw value remains publicly withheld, while the internal threshold check stayed below yellow.
• The market rows are unchanged because November 6 remains the latest completed U.S. session over the weekend.
• VIX is still yellow at 25.64, just above the >25 threshold; the dated FRED cross-check is from November 5 and is not simultaneous.
• The large-bank proxy remains green: LQD minus SPY is +2.95 percentage points over five sessions, just below the strict >3 trigger.
• T10YIE is 2.23%, green but only 0.03 point above the 2.20% lower warning boundary.

3. Market detail

Yahoo query1 supplied one consistent adjusted-close/volume series for every required security and ^VIX; query2, FMP historical fallback and Stooq were not needed. Each listed security had 189 valid observations through November 6, with nonzero price and volume denominators, no reported split event and no split-like recent adjusted-price discontinuity. The ^VIX series had 192 valid price observations; index volume is not applicable, and a >40% move in its volatility-index history is not treated as an equity split. Independent callable finance quotes matched all ten listed closes within 1%. FMP was discovered and called first, but its quote endpoint returned explicit Starter-plan ACCESS DENIED; equivalent quote endpoints were not retried.

Signal 1 is inactive because no monitored bank fell more than 5% in one day with volume above 2×. Signal 2 is inactive because KBE gained 0.32% over five sessions. Signal 3 is inactive because LQD +0.25% minus SPY -2.70% equals +2.95 percentage points, not strictly above +3.

4. Credit and inflation boundary

Direct FRED fredgraph.csv reads were isolated by series, followed redirects and used a 20-second hard timeout. The initial calls timed out; one bounded retry per series succeeded. BAMLH0A0HYM2 is dated November 5 and its raw level is withheld from public redistribution. T10YIE is 2.23% dated November 6. VIXCLS is 28.18 dated November 5 and is an official dated cross-check, not a simultaneous quote; the fresher November 6 Yahoo VIX close controls the VIX row. No FRED lagged observation is presented as same-day market data.

5. Overall algorithm and deploy implication

Any deep red, or at least three reds, makes overall deep red. One or two reds, or at least three yellows with none red, makes overall red. One or two yellows makes overall yellow. HY OAS yellow alone overrides to red. All five must be publicly observable and green before any public all-green claim.

VIX is yellow; KRE, T10YIE and the large-bank proxy are green; the internal HY threshold check did not breach yellow, while its raw value remains publicly withheld. Overall is therefore Yellow, not an all-green declaration. Deploy status is watch: prepare and maintain the watchlist only. Red would activate human review of the pre-planned staged cash-bullet plan; deep red would activate crisis-playbook review. Nothing here authorizes automatic execution.

6. Data health

KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, KBE, LQD and SPY: Yahoo query1 Nov. 6, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 189 valid observations each; independent finance quote differences below 1%. ^VIX: Yahoo query1 Nov. 6, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 192 valid price observations; volume not applicable. BAMLH0A0HYM2: FRED Nov. 5, fallback=bounded retry, missing=no, stale=no, public=DATA_WITHHELD. T10YIE: FRED Nov. 6, fallback=bounded retry, missing=no, stale=no. VIXCLS: FRED Nov. 5, fallback=bounded retry and official asynchronous cross-check, missing=no, stale=no. Blocked source: FMP quote endpoint (ACCESS DENIED, Starter plan). Unused fallbacks: Yahoo query2, FMP history, Stooq. Returns use consecutive adjusted closes and volume ratios use the prior 30 sessions. Sources: FMP ↗, Yahoo ↗, HY OAS ↗, T10YIE ↗, VIXCLS ↗.