Credit risk daily report · 2026-11-04

Beijing time: 2026-11-04 11:30 CST. Market data run through the completed November 3 US session; each FRED series keeps its own observation date. Overall: DATA_INCOMPLETE. Pre-planned cash-bullet status: watch. This is risk monitoring, not investment advice, and no trade is executed.

1. Five-indicator dashboard

HY OAS is the highest-weight signal and a key one-to-three-month credit-event lead indicator. Its source observation is current for the normal publication cadence, but the raw value is not redistributed publicly. Missing public observability is never inferred green, so the public overall level cannot be all-green.

2. What changed / what matters

• HY OAS first: FRED refreshed successfully to a November 2 observation; the value stays withheld and therefore prevents a public all-green conclusion.
• KRE closed at $72.88; the five-day return was +0.41% and volume was 0.77× its prior 30-session average, so no add-on warning fired.
• VIX fell to 20.83 and remains below the yellow threshold of 25.
• No large-bank sub-signal fired; LQD outperformed SPY by 1.43 points over five sessions, below the +3-point risk-off trigger.
• T10YIE eased to 2.30%, still inside the green 2.20%–2.70% band.

3. Market detail

Yahoo query1 supplied 150 valid adjusted-close/volume observations for every listed security and 152 for ^VIX. Denominators were nonzero, and no split event or split-like recent jump was detected. FMP and an independent callable finance lookup matched all ten listed closes within 1%; Yahoo and FMP both show VIX at 20.83 for the completed session.

Signal 1 is inactive because no bank fell more than 5% with volume above 2×. Signal 2 is inactive because KBE gained 0.80%, rather than falling more than 10%. Signal 3 is inactive because LQD -0.56% minus SPY -1.99% equals +1.43 points, below +3.

4. Credit and inflation boundary

Direct FRED fredgraph.csv calls were isolated by series, followed redirects and used a 20-second hard timeout. All three initial calls succeeded: BAMLH0A0HYM2 is dated November 2, T10YIE is 2.30% dated November 3, and VIXCLS is 21.15 dated November 2. The official VIXCLS observation is asynchronous context only; fresh Yahoo ^VIX dated November 3 controls the VIX row. The HY OAS source link and thresholds are public, but the raw observation is withheld under the source redistribution boundary.

5. Overall algorithm and deploy implication

Any deep red, or at least three reds, makes overall deep red. One or two reds, or at least three yellows with none red, makes overall red. One or two yellows makes overall yellow. HY OAS yellow alone overrides to red. All five must be publicly observable and currently green for an overall green.

KRE, VIX, T10YIE and the large-bank proxy are green; HY OAS is current at source but publicly withheld. Overall therefore remains DATA_INCOMPLETE, status watch. Green means no deploy trigger; yellow means prepare/watchlist only; red means human review of the pre-planned staged cash-bullet plan; deep red means crisis-playbook review. Nothing here authorizes automatic execution.

6. Data health

KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, KBE, LQD, SPY: Yahoo query1, Nov. 3, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 150 observations each; FMP quote at the Nov. 3 close and independent finance lookup both obtained, with no >1% threshold-critical discrepancy. ^VIX: Yahoo query1 20.83, Nov. 3, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 152 observations; FMP 20.83 at the completed-session timestamp. BAMLH0A0HYM2: FRED Nov. 2, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no for normal cadence, public=DATA_WITHHELD. T10YIE: FRED 2.30%, Nov. 3, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no. VIXCLS: FRED 21.15, Nov. 2, fallback=cross-check only, missing=no, stale=no for its official observation date; not compared as simultaneous with Nov. 3 Yahoo VIX. Blocked sources: none. Unused fallbacks: Yahoo query2, FMP history and Stooq. Returns use consecutive adjusted closes from one series; volume ratios use the prior 30 sessions. Sources: FMP ↗, Yahoo ↗, HY OAS ↗, T10YIE ↗, VIXCLS ↗.