Credit risk daily report · 2026-11-06

Beijing time: 2026-11-06 11:25 CST. Listed-market data run through the completed November 5 US session; FRED dates are shown separately. Overall: Yellow. Pre-planned cash-bullet status: watch. This is risk monitoring, not investment advice, and no trade is executed.

1. Five-indicator dashboard

HY OAS is the highest-weight signal and the key one-to-three-month credit-event lead indicator. Its dated observation was obtained, but the raw ICE/FRED index value is not redistributed on this public page. The monitor therefore preserves DATA_WITHHELD and does not use that row to claim an all-green state.

2. What changed / what matters

• HY OAS first: a current November 4 observation was retrieved from FRED, but the raw value remains withheld publicly; the special HY-yellow override remains part of the framework.
• VIX jumped from 16.61 to 28.18 in the November 5 session, crossing the yellow threshold but remaining below red.
• The large-bank proxy turned yellow because LQD gained 0.42% over five sessions while SPY fell 4.73%, a +5.15-point risk-off spread.
• C, GS and MS each fell more than 5% in one day, but none exceeded 2× its prior 30-session average volume, so bank signal 1 did not fire.
• KRE stayed green at $72.31, with no five-day or volume add-on warning; T10YIE remained green at 2.24%.

3. Market detail

Yahoo query1 supplied one consistent adjusted-close/volume series for every required security and ^VIX; query2, FMP historical fallback and Stooq were not needed. Each listed security had 170 valid observations through November 5, nonzero denominators, no reported split event, and no split-like recent adjusted-price discontinuity. FMP read-only quotes and an independent callable finance lookup matched all ten listed closes within 1%, so no threshold-critical discrepancy downgrade was required.

Signal 1 is inactive because the banks with a >5% one-day loss did not also exceed 2× volume. Signal 2 is inactive because KBE fell only 0.36% over five sessions, not more than 10%. Signal 3 is active because LQD +0.42% minus SPY -4.73% equals +5.15 percentage points, above +3. One active signal makes the proxy yellow.

4. Credit and inflation boundary

Direct FRED fredgraph.csv reads were isolated by series, followed redirects, used a 20-second hard timeout and succeeded on their initial calls. BAMLH0A0HYM2 is dated November 4, T10YIE is 2.24% dated November 5, and VIXCLS is 16.61 dated November 4. The HY OAS raw index level is withheld from public redistribution. T10YIE is current and green. VIXCLS is an official dated cross-check, not a simultaneous quote: the fresher November 5 Yahoo VIX close controls the VIX row.

5. Overall algorithm and deploy implication

Any deep red, or at least three reds, makes overall deep red. One or two reds, or at least three yellows with none red, makes overall red. One or two yellows makes overall yellow. HY OAS yellow alone overrides to red. All five must be publicly observable and green before any all-green claim.

VIX and the large-bank proxy are yellow; KRE and T10YIE are green; HY OAS remains publicly DATA_WITHHELD. The observable threshold algorithm therefore gives Yellow, with reduced public confidence on the highest-weight row. Deploy status is watch: prepare and maintain the watchlist only. Red would trigger human review of the pre-planned staged cash-bullet plan; deep red would trigger crisis-playbook review. Nothing here authorizes automatic execution.

6. Data health

KRE: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170 observations; FMP/finance quotes matched. JPM: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170; FMP/finance matched. BAC: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170; FMP/finance matched. WFC: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170; FMP/finance matched. C: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170; FMP/finance matched. GS: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170; FMP/finance matched. MS: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170; FMP/finance matched. KBE: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170; FMP/finance matched. LQD: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170; FMP/finance matched. SPY: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170; FMP/finance matched. ^VIX: Yahoo query1 Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 173 observations; volume not applicable. BAMLH0A0HYM2: FRED Nov. 4, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, public=DATA_WITHHELD. T10YIE: FRED Nov. 5, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no. VIXCLS: FRED Nov. 4, fallback=official asynchronous cross-check, missing=no, stale=no. Blocked sources: none. Unused fallbacks: Yahoo query2, FMP history, Stooq. Returns use consecutive adjusted closes and volume ratios use the prior 30 sessions. Sources: FMP ↗, Yahoo ↗, HY OAS ↗, T10YIE ↗, VIXCLS ↗.