Credit risk daily report · 2026-11-05

Beijing time: 2026-11-05 11:30 CST. Market prices run through the completed November 4 US session; every macro series retains its own observation status. Overall: DATA_INCOMPLETE. Pre-planned cash-bullet status: watch. This is risk monitoring, not investment advice, and no trade is executed.

1. Five-indicator dashboard

HY OAS is the highest-weight signal and a key one-to-three-month credit-event lead indicator. Its raw value is not redistributed publicly, and this run could not recover an auditable current FRED payload after the bounded isolated calls. Missing public observability is never inferred green.

2. What changed / what matters

• HY OAS first: the current FRED result payload was not recoverable for audit; the raw value remains withheld, so no public color or all-green conclusion is allowed.
• KRE rose to $74.13; its five-day return was +2.80% and volume was 1.13× its prior 30-session average, so neither add-on warning fired.
• VIX fell to 16.61 and remains below the yellow threshold of 25.
• No large-bank sub-signal fired; LQD outperformed SPY by 1.51 points over five sessions, below the +3-point risk-off trigger.
• T10YIE is DATA_MISSING / STALE_CRITICAL for this run; no inflation or recession color is inferred.

3. Market detail

Yahoo query1/query2 were attempted first in an isolated bounded collector, but its result payload was not recoverable by the task session. The collector was not rerun. FMP dividend-adjusted history was therefore used as the bounded fallback and supplied 46 valid observations through November 4 for every required security and ^VIX. Denominators were nonzero for all volume-tested securities, and no split-like adjusted-price jump was detected. FMP quotes and an independent callable finance lookup matched all ten listed closes within 1%; no threshold-critical discrepancy downgrade was required.

Signal 1 is inactive because no bank fell more than 5% with volume above 2×. Signal 2 is inactive because KBE gained 3.34%, rather than falling more than 10%. Signal 3 is inactive because LQD +0.80% minus SPY -0.71% equals +1.51 points, below +3.

4. Credit and inflation boundary

Direct FRED fredgraph.csv requests for BAMLH0A0HYM2, T10YIE and VIXCLS were isolated, followed redirects and used a 20-second hard timeout with at most one retry. The controlled collector completed, but its response payload was not recoverable by this task session, so none of the three observations is represented as current or auditable. No equivalent FRED requests were repeated. HY OAS remains publicly DATA_WITHHELD; T10YIE is DATA_MISSING / STALE_CRITICAL; VIXCLS is missing as an official dated cross-check. The fresh November 4 FMP ^VIX session observation controls the VIX row, while the missing FRED cross-check lowers macro-data confidence.

5. Overall algorithm and deploy implication

Any deep red, or at least three reds, makes overall deep red. One or two reds, or at least three yellows with none red, makes overall red. One or two yellows makes overall yellow. HY OAS yellow alone overrides to red. All five must be currently observable and green for an overall green.

KRE, VIX and the large-bank proxy are green; HY OAS is publicly withheld and current FRED observability is missing, while T10YIE is missing. Overall therefore remains DATA_INCOMPLETE, status watch. Green means no deploy trigger; yellow means prepare/watchlist only; red means human review of the pre-planned staged cash-bullet plan; deep red means crisis-playbook review. Missing data does not authorize activation, and nothing here authorizes automatic execution.

6. Data health

KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, KBE, LQD, SPY: FMP adjusted history, Nov. 4, fallback=yes after Yahoo result-payload failure, missing=no, stale=no, 46 observations each; FMP quote and independent finance quote both obtained, with no >1% threshold-critical discrepancy. ^VIX: FMP 16.61, Nov. 4, fallback=yes after Yahoo payload failure, missing=no, stale=no, 46 observations; volume not applicable. BAMLH0A0HYM2: FRED current payload unauditable, fallback=no, missing=yes, stale=STALE_CRITICAL, public=DATA_WITHHELD. T10YIE: FRED current payload unauditable, fallback=no, missing=yes, stale=STALE_CRITICAL. VIXCLS: FRED current payload unauditable, fallback=cross-check unavailable, missing=yes, stale=yes. Blocked/unusable output: the bounded Yahoo/FRED collector payload could not be recovered; no source was silently substituted and no second monolithic collector was run. Unused last resort: Stooq. Returns use consecutive adjusted closes from one FMP series; volume ratios use the prior 30 sessions. Sources: FMP ↗, Yahoo ↗, HY OAS ↗, T10YIE ↗, VIXCLS ↗.