Credit risk daily report · 2026-11-07

Beijing time: 2026-11-07 12:19 CST. Listed-market data run through the completed November 6 US session; FRED observations carry their own dates. Overall: DATA_INCOMPLETE. Pre-planned cash-bullet status: watch. This is risk monitoring, not investment advice, and no trade is executed.

1. Five-indicator dashboard

HY OAS is the highest-weight signal and the key one-to-three-month credit-event lead indicator. The current read did not produce an auditable result, and the raw ICE/FRED index level is not redistributed publicly. This prevents an all-green conclusion and reduces overall confidence.

2. What changed / what matters

• HY OAS first: the isolated current FRED collection returned no auditable payload and was not rerun; the row is DATA_MISSING / STALE_CRITICAL / DATA_WITHHELD, so overall remains incomplete.
• VIX eased from 28.18 on November 5 to 25.64 on November 6 but remains just above the yellow threshold.
• The large-bank proxy returned to green: the LQD-minus-SPY five-day spread narrowed from +5.15 to +2.95 percentage points, below the strict >3 trigger.
• KRE stayed green at $72.20, with a positive five-day return and only 0.61× prior-30-day volume.
• T10YIE edged to 2.23%, still inside the green band but close to the 2.20% lower warning boundary.

3. Market detail

Yahoo query1 supplied one consistent adjusted-close/volume series for every required security and ^VIX; query2, FMP historical fallback and Stooq were not needed. Each listed security had 170 valid observations through November 6, nonzero denominators, no reported split event and no split-like recent adjusted-price discontinuity. FMP read-only quotes and an independent callable finance lookup matched all ten listed closes within 1%; FMP ^VIX also matched Yahoo.

Signal 1 is inactive because no monitored bank fell more than 5% in one day with volume above 2×. Signal 2 is inactive because KBE gained 0.32% over five sessions. Signal 3 is inactive because LQD +0.25% minus SPY -2.70% equals +2.95 percentage points, not strictly above +3.

4. Credit and inflation boundary

Direct FRED fredgraph.csv reads were isolated by series, followed redirects and used bounded hard timeouts. The HY OAS collector produced no auditable output; it was not silently rerun, and the last verified November 4 observation is stale context only. T10YIE succeeded at 2.23% dated November 6. VIXCLS succeeded at 28.18 dated November 5 and is an official dated cross-check, not a simultaneous quote; the fresher November 6 Yahoo VIX close controls the VIX row.

5. Overall algorithm and deploy implication

Any deep red, or at least three reds, makes overall deep red. One or two reds, or at least three yellows with none red, makes overall red. One or two yellows makes overall yellow. HY OAS yellow alone overrides to red. All five must be observed and green before any all-green claim.

The observable rows show VIX yellow and KRE, T10YIE and the large-bank proxy green, but HY OAS is missing and stale-critical. Overall is therefore DATA_INCOMPLETE, not green. Deploy status is watch: prepare and maintain the watchlist only. Red would activate human review of the pre-planned staged cash-bullet plan; deep red would activate crisis-playbook review. Nothing here authorizes automatic execution.

6. Data health

KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, KBE, LQD and SPY: Yahoo query1 Nov. 6, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 170 valid observations each; FMP/finance quote differences below 1%. ^VIX: Yahoo query1 Nov. 6, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, 173 observations; volume not applicable; FMP matched. BAMLH0A0HYM2: current FRED collector payload unavailable, fallback=no, missing=yes, stale=STALE_CRITICAL, public=DATA_WITHHELD; prior verified Nov. 4 date is context only. T10YIE: FRED Nov. 6, fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no. VIXCLS: FRED Nov. 5, fallback=official asynchronous cross-check, missing=no, stale=no. Blocked source: current BAMLH0A0HYM2 read. Unused fallbacks: Yahoo query2, FMP history, Stooq. Returns use consecutive adjusted closes and volume ratios use the prior 30 sessions. Sources: FMP ↗, Yahoo ↗, HY OAS ↗, T10YIE ↗, VIXCLS ↗.