Credit risk daily report · 2026-11-09

Beijing time: 2026-11-09 11:30 CST. Listed-market data run through the latest completed U.S. session on November 6; FRED observations carry their own dates. Overall: Yellow. Pre-planned cash-bullet status: watch. This is risk monitoring, not investment advice, and no trade is executed.

1. Five-indicator dashboard

HY OAS is the highest-weight signal and the key one-to-three-month credit-event lead indicator. Its raw ICE/FRED index level is not redistributed publicly. The last verified internal threshold check did not activate the HY yellow override; because the current direct collector returned no auditable FRED payload, confidence is lower and the public report does not claim that all five indicators are green.

2. What changed / what matters

• HY OAS first: the latest verified observation remains November 5; its raw value stays publicly withheld and the last verified internal check was below yellow, but the current direct read was not auditable.
• November 6 remains the latest completed U.S. session over the weekend, so listed-market values are unchanged.
• VIX remains yellow at 25.64, just above the >25 threshold; the dated FRED cross-check is from November 5 and is not simultaneous.
• The large-bank proxy remains green: LQD minus SPY is +2.95 percentage points over five sessions, just below the strict >3 trigger.
• T10YIE is 2.23%, green but only 0.03 point above the 2.20% lower warning boundary.

3. Market detail

Yahoo query1 and query2 were attempted first in an isolated bounded collector, but the run returned no auditable payload and was not rerun. FMP dividend-adjusted history then supplied the bounded fallback through November 6 for KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, KBE, LQD and SPY; FMP index history supplied ^VIX. The same completed-session values were already validated on the prior run from a consistent adjusted-close/volume series with 189 listed-security observations, nonzero denominators and no split anomaly. Fresh FMP quotes and independent callable finance quotes matched the ten listed closes within 1%; no threshold-critical discrepancy was found. Stooq was not used.

Signal 1 is inactive because no monitored bank fell more than 5% in one day with volume above 2×. Signal 2 is inactive because KBE gained 0.32% over five sessions. Signal 3 is inactive because LQD +0.25% minus SPY -2.70% equals +2.95 percentage points, not strictly above +3.

4. Credit and inflation boundary

The current isolated FRED collector targeted direct fredgraph.csv reads with redirect following, a 20-second hard timeout and no more than one retry, but returned no auditable payload and was not rerun. The report therefore reuses only the last verified dated observations: BAMLH0A0HYM2 on November 5, T10YIE at 2.23% on November 6, and VIXCLS at 28.18 on November 5. These dates remain within normal weekend publication cadence, so they are fallback observations rather than STALE_CRITICAL; confidence is nevertheless reduced. VIXCLS is an official dated cross-check, not a simultaneous quote, and the fresher November 6 market close controls the VIX row.

5. Overall algorithm and deploy implication

Any deep red, or at least three reds, makes overall deep red. One or two reds, or at least three yellows with none red, makes overall red. One or two yellows makes overall yellow. HY OAS yellow alone overrides to red. All five must be publicly observable and green before any public all-green claim.

VIX is yellow; KRE, T10YIE and the large-bank proxy are green; the last verified internal HY threshold check did not breach yellow, while its raw value remains publicly withheld. Overall is therefore Yellow, not an all-green declaration. Deploy status is watch: prepare and maintain the watchlist only. Red would activate human review of the pre-planned staged cash-bullet plan; deep red would activate crisis-playbook review. Nothing here authorizes automatic execution.

6. Data health

KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, KBE, LQD and SPY: FMP dividend-adjusted history Nov. 6, fallback=yes after Yahoo collector returned no auditable payload, missing=no, stale=no; fresh FMP and independent finance quotes agreed within 1%. ^VIX: FMP index history/quote Nov. 6, fallback=yes, missing=no, stale=no; volume not applicable. BAMLH0A0HYM2: last verified FRED Nov. 5, fallback=reused dated observation, missing=no, stale=no under weekend cadence, public=DATA_WITHHELD, confidence reduced. T10YIE: last verified FRED Nov. 6, fallback=reused dated observation, missing=no, stale=no. VIXCLS: last verified FRED Nov. 5, fallback=reused official asynchronous cross-check, missing=no, stale=no. Blocked/current-read issue: Yahoo query1/query2 and direct FRED collector produced no auditable payload; neither collector was rerun. Unused fallback: Stooq. Returns use consecutive adjusted closes and volume ratios use the prior 30 sessions. Sources: FMP ↗, Yahoo ↗, HY OAS ↗, T10YIE ↗, VIXCLS ↗.