BTC daily report · 2026-10-12

Generated around 10:10 Beijing time. Completed crypto daily bars end on 2026-10-11 UTC.

1. Data health and fallbacks

Binance plugin supplied BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT spot quotes, daily bars and USDⓈ-M derivatives. FMP, OKX and CoinGecko cross-checks were within 0.2%. CoinMetrics MVRV observations end on 2026-10-10 00:00 UTC, roughly 50 hours old: STALE_CRITICAL. The transparent MVRV-Z reconstruction is a PROXY / STALE_CRITICAL and receives zero effective contribution.

FMP supplied MSTR price/history and issuer metadata. Its DXY index endpoint returned explicit ACCESS DENIED; Yahoo returned HTTP 429, so a 102.13 DXY proxy was rebuilt from six FMP FX components using the published index-weight formula. Farside returned HTTP 403; CryptoETF.today is the ETF-flow fallback. STH cost basis and a standardized live MVRV-Z are DATA_MISSING; weights are not redistributed.

2. BTC regime and price

BTC is TRANSITION for five completed days, with a Sideways-Transition sub-zone. It is about 29.8 months after the April 20, 2024 halving, in the framework's 24–36-month late-cycle/bear window.

BULL requires price above SMA200 and slope above +5%; BEAR requires price below SMA200 and slope below -5%. Current evidence meets neither full rule.

3. Multi-anchor valuation

MVRV = market cap / realized cap; NUPL = 1 - 1/MVRV. Proxy MVRV-Z = (market cap - market cap/MVRV) / all-history population standard deviation of market cap, observed October 10. It is not a vendor-standard MVRV-Z. The MVRV ratio is explanatory at 0% weight and never substitutes for MVRV-Z.

At current difficulty 132.716T and a 3.125 BTC subsidy, electricity-only mining scenarios are about $45,600/BTC for 18 J/TH at $0.05/kWh, $73,000 at $0.08, $63,300 for 25 J/TH at $0.05 and $101,300 at $0.08. Hardware, overhead, finance and fee revenue are excluded.

Thirty-day hash rate is about 964 EH/s versus 942 EH/s over 60 days, an expansion signal. Thirty-day active addresses average about 637,118, down 12.6% YoY, so activity does not confirm hash strength. Derivatives: latest funding 0.000556%/8h, 30-observation mean 0.00149%/8h or 1.63% annualized; OI 92,896 BTC/about $7.78B; account long/short 1.41; quarterly basis about 4.99% annualized.

US spot BTC ETF flow was +$21.1M on October 9, while the reported seven-day total remained about -$388.5M. Macro: DFII10 2.87% and DGS10 5.22% on October 8; Fed assets $6.748T and TGA $0.886T on October 7; ON RRP $0.3B on October 9; net liquidity about $5.861T, down 2.1% over 90 days; US M2 $23.343T for August. Global M2 is unavailable.

4. Score and regime-modified action

Effective score: -0.11, hold/watch. Even including the stale raw MVRV-Z score would leave the composite near +0.01, still hold/watch. TRANSITION prevents an add based only on below-average MVRV. Action: retain core exposure, do not chase.

5. Three independent horizons

• Tactical, 1–4 weeks: defensive-neutral. RSI and funding improved, but seven-day ETF demand remains negative and $86,600 is not persistently reclaimed.
• Cyclic, 1–6 months: cautious. The -36.4% SMA slope, 29.8-month halving position, 2.87% real yield and contracting net liquidity remain adverse evidence.
• Strategic, 6–24 months: retain a core position and layer new capital. MVRV/NUPL are not in a historical bubble zone, but stale anchors and weak trend do not support a single large allocation.

6. Conditional trigger lines

Trend add: five closes above $86,600 and SMA200 slope above -5%; rapid funding/OI overheating limits size. Value observation: $76,264, requiring fresh MVRV-Z and stabilization. Bear confirmation: five closes below dynamic SMA200, now about $72,018, with slope below -5%. Before persistence confirms, price below SMA200 with MVRV above 1.5 is Hot-Transition and cannot add. Overheat reduction: Mayer at least 1.50, currently about $108,027, plus confirming on-chain, ETF and derivatives excess.

7. ETH snapshot

Binance ETHUSDT $2,544.24; OKX $2,545.82; FMP ETHUSD $2,542.48; CoinGecko $2,539.44. Completed close $2,536.94; 1d/7d/30d returns +1.21%/-6.97%/+0.82%. CoinMetrics MVRV ratio 1.079, 36.5th five-year percentile versus mean 1.161, observed October 10: STALE_CRITICAL; score +0.50, weight 0%. It is explanatory, not an independent entry signal.

8. MSTR mapping and scenarios

MSTR closed at $154.34 on October 9, up 1.89%. Latest official disclosure through October 4: 848,000 BTC, $63.97B aggregate cost, $75,440.7 average. Official basic shares were 422.071M and official ADSO 451.577M; BTC per ADSO is 0.0018779, or 187,786 sats. Debt $6.714B, preferreds $13.946B, USD Reserve $4.878B and USD Cash $0.833B.

At BTC $83,719.90, gross BTC NAV/share is $157.21 and estimated net common NAV/share $124.11. ADSO market cap/gross BTC NAV is 0.98x; ADSO market cap/net common NAV is 1.24x. FMP's 330.808M share count is tied to the June 30 filing and is stale after ATM issuance, so it is not used for current mNAV.

Net common NAV/share = (848,000 × BTC price + $5.711B - $6.714B - $13.946B) / 451.577M. The table includes current cash, debt and preferred claims, but holds them and ADSO fixed and excludes software value, taxes and future issuance.

From September 25 to October 4, basic shares rose by 92,894 while 334 BTC were acquired. MSTR lagging an $84K BTC level reflects ADSO growth, debt/preferred senior claims and mNAV compression, not a decline in BTC holdings. Equity issuance is accretive only when issued above relevant NAV and when the resulting BTC acquisition raises BTC per diluted share.

9. Conclusion

BTC remains hold/watch, with an effective score of -0.11. Tactical conditions improved but ETF demand is still weak; cyclic trend and cycle timing remain cautious; strategic valuation is not bubbly but critical on-chain evidence is stale. Watch $86,600, $76,264 and dynamic SMA200 around $72,018.

MSTR at $154.34 is about 1.24x estimated net common NAV, not a simple discounted-BTC claim. ADSO, debt, preferreds and future ATM issuance remain essential. This is framework research, not personalized investment advice.