BTC daily report · 2026-10-29

1. Data health and fallbacks

The cutoff is approximately 10:22 Beijing time on 2026-10-29. Regime comes first. Returns, SMA, slope, Mayer and RSI are computed locally from the same completed Binance BTCUSDT daily-close series; live USDT quotes, independent USD checks and completed closes are kept distinct.

FMP was discovered under the exact mcp__financial_modeling_prep__ namespace and used first for applicable MSTR price, market-cap, share and filing-discovery fields. Binance remains the task-mandated primary for crypto spot, bars and derivatives. Missing, stale or timestamp-unverified weighted fields stay neutral; weights are not renormalized.

This run uses two Binance pages covering the full five-year window. The Oct 28 report understated the annualized six-month SMA200 slope at -12.41% because one page did not span the required lookback. The corrected full-series value is -26.87%. The correction does not change the TRANSITION regime or action mapping.

2. BTC regime, sub-zone and price

Price is above SMA200 while the slope is below -5%, so the rule returns TRANSITION. The latest five completed days are all TRANSITION, satisfying persistence; closes were $80,888 → $80,154 → $80,151 → $80,910 → $81,344. The cycle phase is the framework's 24–36 month late-cycle/bear window. Stale CoinMetrics MVRV is below 1.5 while Explore21's date-only proxy is just above 1.5; price remains above SMA200, so the definition of Hot-Transition—MVRV above 1.5 with price below SMA200—is not met. Sub-zone: Sideways-Transition.

3. BTC multi-anchor valuation

TRANSITION weights are fixed: MVRV-Z 25%, Mayer 15%, production 10%, NUPL 15%, STH 15%, halving 5%, hash/active addresses 5%, macro 5%, derivatives 5%. The MVRV ratio is explanatory at 0% and never replaces MVRV-Z.

Exact definitions: MVRV = market cap / realized cap; NUPL = 1 - 1/MVRV; MVRV-Z = (market cap - realized cap) / expanding historical standard deviation of market cap. CoinMetrics directly reports the Oct 27 MVRV ratio. Explore21 publishes Oct 28 own-node MVRV and MVRV-Z CSVs; the latest non-null STH realized-price observation remains Oct 27. Because proxy data has no hourly timestamp, it remains PROXY / FRESHNESS_UNVERIFIED and outside the effective action score. btc-oak was checked in the mandated order but remained dated July 22, 2026.

Production cost has no single tradable point. The range retains a public energy-floor estimate near $52.4K and the 2026Q2 listed-miner weighted pretax cash-cost reference near $75.5K. It is a boundary range, not a fabricated estimate.

CoinMetrics Oct 28 active addresses were 618,214; the 7D average was 606,625 versus a 30D average of 635,172. Hash rate was 1.006 ZH/s; the 7D average was 1.066 versus a 30D average of 1.024 ZH/s; mempool.space cross-checked at about 1.081 ZH/s. Strong security and soft usage leave the combination neutral.

Binance USDⓈ-M latest funding was 0.006216%/8h. OI was 96,173.83 BTC, about $7.70B at live spot; perpetual basis was about -0.05%; account long/short was 1.889. Long accounts remain crowded, so derivatives score -0.5. CryptoETF.today's Oct 28 BTC flow was +$1.3M, but Farside returned 403, so it stays background only.

Both the first bounded FRED attempt and one retry timed out, so this report does not invent an Oct 29 update. It retains the prior fetched observations: DFII10 2.66% and DGS10 5.00% on Oct 23; WALCL $6.754T and TGA $0.952T on Oct 21; RRP $0.000226T on Oct 27; simplified net liquidity about $5.801T; and U.S. M2 $23.414T for September. These are stale observations. Yahoo DXY is 102.08 intraday Oct 29. Global M2 remains DATA_MISSING.

4. Total score and regime-modified action

If date-only and stale proxies were forced into the model, the mechanical raw score would be about +0.03. Under the health policy, MVRV-Z and chain-derived weighted contributions are zero, leaving an effective score of -0.14. Directly interpretable effective-weight coverage is about 45%; missing weight is not renormalized.

-0.14 maps to hold/watch. TRANSITION does not permit an add based only on price above SMA200 or MVRV near its mean. The full series shows trend slope still far below -5%, while long accounts remain crowded. Final action: hold/watch, do not chase; act only when fresh chain data, trend and hard triggers agree.

5. Three independent windows

Tactical, 1–4 weeks

Neutral-defensive. RSI 48.2 is back in the neutral zone, but 7D and 30D returns remain negative. Funding is moderate while account long/short is near 1.9. Price is 11.3% above SMA200, so bear confirmation is absent, but this is not a chase signal.

Cyclic, 1–6 months

Cautious. The full five-year series puts the SMA200 slope at -26.9%, far below the -5% confirmation line; five persistent TRANSITION days are not a new bull regime. An upgrade requires sustained slope convergence through -5%, repeated closes above the recent high, and confirmation from fresh on-chain and complete flow data.

Strategic, 6–24 months

Retain a core position and stage new capital. Available MVRV-type ratios are not in historical bubble territory, but the late-cycle/bear timing window and negative slope do not support a single heavy allocation. Strategic value and tactical execution remain separate.

6. Hard trigger lines

• Trend-add threshold: five completed closes above $84,500, SMA200 slope above -5%, and no simultaneous overheating in funding, OI and long/short. Not met.
• Value observation line: about $76,766 (1.05×SMA200). It requires fresh MVRV-Z/MVRV, stabilization and flow confirmation; touching it is not an automatic buy.
• Warning line: about $73,111 (dynamic SMA200). A break with slope below -5% moves toward bear confirmation; if MVRV is also above 1.5, it is Hot-Transition and additions are prohibited.
• Bear red line: five completed closes below dynamic SMA200 with slope below -5%, switching to BEAR weights.
• Reduce observation line: about $109,666 (Mayer 1.50). Reduction requires concurrent overheating in MVRV-Z, NUPL, ETF demand and derivatives.
• Data red line: stale chain anchors plus rising leverage and a break below SMA200 means reducing risk budget first.

7. ETH snapshot

Binance live ETHUSDT is $2,307.95. The Oct 28 completed close is $2,359.68; 1d/7d/30d returns are +0.40% / -4.61% / -12.24%. CoinGecko's USD check was $2,300.40; Yahoo long history succeeded but is not labeled live spot.

ETH MVRV is directly reported by CoinMetrics but older than 24 hours. It is not presented as ETH MVRV-Z and does not independently establish an ETH trade.

8. MSTR / Strategy mapping

Strategy's new Oct 28 8-K concerns daily-dividend mechanics and effective dates for STRF, STRC, STRK and STRD; it does not update BTC holdings or common issuance. The newest holdings disclosure therefore remains the 2026-10-26 8-K: no BTC was bought or sold and no ATM common shares were issued during Oct 19–25. Holdings remain 848,517 BTC, aggregate cost $64.02B, average cost $75,446. The prior filing also reported the repurchase of 2,068,459 STRC shares for $204.9M, a $4.83B USD Reserve and about $242.4M of USD Cash.

ADSO means assumed diluted shares, not GAAP weighted-average diluted shares. Estimated net common NAV uses about $6.75B of debt, about $13.76B of preferred claims after the STRC repurchase, and $5.072B of dollar assets. Preferred claims and dollar assets are estimates and do not replace a full capital-structure model. The Oct 28 filing changes dividend mechanics but not the claim amount assumed here.

The multiple columns are gross BTC NAV scenarios and ignore debt, preferred claims and dollar assets; only the estimated net common NAV column adds those rough adjustments. MSTR trades just below gross BTC NAV/ADSO but above estimated net common NAV. A sub-1x gross BTC NAV is not a risk-free BTC discount.

9. Sources and caveats

• Binance market data ↗: BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT quotes, 1d bars and USDⓈ-M derivatives.
• CoinMetrics Community API ↗: MVRV, addresses and hash rate; restricted fields retain their 403 status.
• Explore21 data ↗: own-node MVRV, MVRV-Z, realized-price and STH realized-price CSV fallback.
• btc-oak MVRV-Z ↗: mandated first transparent fallback, but still dated July 22 and not used as the current source of record.
• mempool.space ↗, FRED ↗, CryptoETF.today ↗, Strategy Oct 26 holdings 8-K ↗, Strategy Oct 28 daily-dividend 8-K ↗, FMP ↗, CoinGecko ↗ and Yahoo Finance ↗.

This is a valuation and risk framework with explicit data boundaries, not personalized investment advice. PROXY, STALE_CRITICAL, FRESHNESS_UNVERIFIED, DATA_MISSING, ACCESS_RESTRICTED and stale macro observations are not disguised as complete signals.