BTC daily report · 2026-10-15

Generated around 10:20 Beijing time on 2026-10-15; completed crypto daily bars through 2026-10-14 UTC.

1. Data health and fallbacks

FMP was used first for applicable financial fields. Initial FMP chart and filing calls had transient session errors; each succeeded on the single allowed retry. Standardized vendor MVRV-Z and STH cost basis remain missing; weights are not redistributed.

2. BTC regime, zone and price

• Regime: TRANSITION for five completed days; zone: Sideways-Transition. Price is above the 200D SMA, but the SMA slope is negative.
• About 29.8 months since the 2024-04-20 halving: the framework's 24–36 month late-cycle/bear window.

Bull requires price above the 200D and slope above +5%; Bear requires price below the 200D and slope below -5%. Only the price test is positive, so Transition remains correct.

3. BTC multi-anchor valuation

Positive scores mean cheaper; negative scores mean richer or adverse. Missing/stale critical fields stay neutral and weights are not redistributed.

Formulas: MVRV=market cap/realized cap; NUPL=1-1/MVRV; transparent MVRV-Z=(market cap-market cap/MVRV)/population standard deviation of all-history market cap. Oct 14 market cap was about $1.638T, inferred realized cap $1.082T, and the historical standard deviation $0.617T. This is a proxy, not vendor-standard MVRV-Z, and its timestamp is over 24 hours old. MVRV ratio is always explanatory at 0% weight and cannot replace MVRV-Z.

The mining range uses 132.716T difficulty, 3.125 BTC subsidy, 15–25 J/TH and $0.04–0.07/kWh; it excludes capex, operations, financing and fees. Thirty-day hash rate is about 972 EH/s versus 923 EH/s in the previous 30 days.

Macro: DFII10 2.88% and DGS10 5.21% (Oct 13); WALCL $6.748T and TGA $0.886T (Oct 7); ON RRP $0.201B (Oct 14); net liquidity about $5.862T, down about 2.1% over 90 days; U.S. M2 $23.343T (Aug 1, about +5.7% YoY). Global M2 is DATA_MISSING. DXY PROXY is 101.97 from the six FMP FX components using ICE weights, up about 1.24% over 90 days.

Derivatives: latest funding -0.00414% per 8h, 30-print average +0.00091%; OI about 92,383 BTC / $7.60B, down 6.5% in 30 days; account long/short 1.77; quarterly basis about 5.2% annualized.

4. Composite and regime-modified action

Effective score: -0.08 → hold/watch. Mechanically including stale proxy MVRV-Z would produce about +0.05, still hold/watch. The Transition modifier blocks a valuation-only add: hold core exposure, but do not chase or treat one down day as confirmation.

5. Independent horizons

Tactical: 1–4 weeks

Neutral to defensive. RSI fell to 43.6 and leverage cooled, but prescribed ETF sources are incomplete and a secondary mirror suggests an Oct 14 outflow. Demand reversal is unconfirmed.

Cyclical: 1–6 months

Cautious. The -34.9% 200D slope, 29.8-month halving age, 2.88% real yield and shrinking net liquidity remain the main contrary evidence. Price above the 200D prevents a Bear classification.

Strategic: 6–24 months

Keep core exposure; stage new capital. MVRV/NUPL are not bubbly, but MVRV-Z is stale and STH basis is missing. Better risk/reward needs trend repair or fresh on-chain undervaluation plus stabilization around $72K–$76K.

6. Hard triggers

• Trend add: five closes above $86,600 and 200D slope above -5%. If funding, OI and basis overheat, only a small add.
• Value watch: near $76,000; price alone is not a buy without fresh MVRV-Z and stabilization.
• Bear/red line: five closes below the dynamic 200D, now about $72,243, with slope below -5%. Price below 200D with MVRV above 1.5 is Hot-Transition and forbids adding.
• Reduce/overheat: Mayer at least 1.50, now about $108,365, confirmed by MVRV-Z, ETF chasing and crowded derivatives.

7. ETH snapshot

ETH MVRV is from CoinMetrics at Oct 14 00:00 UTC, about 26 hours old: STALE_CRITICAL. Oversold RSI is tactical, not intrinsic-value confirmation; the MVRV ratio is explanatory only.

8. MSTR mapping and scenarios

From Oct 5–11 Strategy sold 125,183 MSTR shares for $21.0M net, added $0.5M cash, bought 250 BTC and repurchased 1,932,145 STRC shares for $192.4M. ADSO rose 0.049%, while BTC holdings rose only 0.029%, so BTC per ADSO fell about 0.019%. That dilution math, the BTC decline and premium compression explain why MSTR reached $143 even with BTC around $81K.

FMP's 379.111M share count references the Jun 30 filing and is excluded. Estimated preferred notional of $13.753B subtracts roughly $193.2M of repurchased STRC notional from the prior $13.946B; treat it as an estimate pending a new 10-Q/capital-structure update.

Formula: net common NAV/share=(848,250×BTC price+$5.5205B-$6.714B-$13.753B)/451.797M. Scenarios include debt, preferreds and USD assets, assume they and ADSO remain fixed, and ignore software value, taxes and future issuance/repurchases.

9. Bottom line

BTC: hold/watch. Valuation is not bubbly, but trend, cycle and macro remain weak and the critical on-chain proxy is over 24 hours old. Effective score -0.08; watch $86,600, $76,000 and the dynamic 200D near $72,243.

MSTR: $143.24 is about 1.20x estimated net common NAV. Holdings rose, but ADSO rose faster and BTC per share slipped. MSTR is not a debt-free BTC ETF; debt, preferred claims, USD assets and future ATM issuance all matter.

This is framework-based research, not personalized investment advice. Trigger lines are conditions, not forecasts.