BTC daily report · 2026-10-18

Report date: 2026-10-18, Asia/Shanghai (UTC+8). Quotes were collected around 10:20 Beijing time. This is a fixed-time snapshot.

1. Data health and field-specific fallbacks

FMP returned quotes, history, SEC search and the Q2 balance sheet. An explicit FMP index ACCESS DENIED led to Yahoo DXY; restricted sibling endpoints were not retried. FMP lacks the required on-chain, mining, daily ETF net-flow and current ADSO fields. Its share-count field cites June 30 and is rejected as the current denominator.

The btc oak MVRV-Z page is still dated July 22, 2026, so its old value is rejected. BGeometrics' free last endpoint returns Oct 11 with delayed=true. Neither restores fresh data. The newer CoinMetrics reconstruction remains stale. No browser-controlled operation was used.

2. BTC regime, sub-zone and price

TRANSITION for five completed UTC days; Sideways-Transition. Price exceeds SMA200, but its annualized six-month slope is below -5%. BULL requires price above SMA200 and slope above +5%; BEAR requires price below SMA200 and slope below -5%.

About 30 months have elapsed since the April 20, 2024 halving, inside the 24–36-month late-cycle/bear window. That cycle backdrop is separate from the price-regime classification.

Slope=[SMA200(t)/SMA200(t−182)]^(365/182)−1. Returns, RSI and moving averages use the same dated Binance close series. The rolling five-year window begins Oct 18, 2021, with extra warm-up history. Vendor open-to-close changePercentage is not used as a return.

3. Multi-anchor BTC valuation

Positive scores indicate cheaper or supportive conditions; negative scores indicate expensive or adverse conditions. Transition weights are retained without renormalization. The supplied v1.0 contract specifies weights and action bands but not every anchor's complete score calibration. Raw scores below are disclosed research judgments, while stale/missing critical inputs have zero effective contribution. This is not a completed high-confidence model score.

MVRV=market cap/realized cap, sourced from CoinMetrics CapMVRVCur. BTC's observation is Oct 16 00:00 UTC. Market cap is $1.638855T and reconstructed realized cap is $1.082607T. NUPL=1−1/MVRV=0.3394.

Transparent Z proxy=(market cap−market cap/MVRV)/expanding population standard deviation of market cap through the same day. Current sigma is $0.617777T, giving Z=0.9004. Each historical Z uses only its then-available expanding denominator, avoiding look-ahead from applying today's denominator to history. The MVRV ratio does not replace MVRV-Z; NUPL shares the stale source and also contributes zero.

Electricity cost assumptions are difficulty 140.577680T, subsidy 3.125 BTC, efficiency 15–25 J/TH and electricity $0.04–$0.07/kWh. Formula: difficulty×2^32×efficiency×10^-12÷(3.6×10^6)×electricity price÷3.125. It excludes depreciation, operations, financing and fee revenue. Hashrate Index was accessible but did not supply a comparable network-wide all-in cost point, so only the range is published.

Hash30D is 977.68 EH/s versus Hash60D 947.61 EH/s, an expansion; previous 30D was 917.55 EH/s. Latest active addresses are 549,423; 30D average 642,762 versus prior 30D 636,916, up 0.92%. The latest daily level is only the 2.2nd five-year percentile. The start date of the recovery signal was not verified, so no duration is invented. Fees average 2.936 BTC/day over 30 days.

Net liquidity is 1.30% below the approximately 90-day reference combination of $5.947022T. Units are harmonized: WALCL/TGA are in millions and RRP in billions. Real yields are 43bp above July 20's 2.35%, a restrictive backdrop. The dated raw macro judgment is retained, but its action contribution is zero because the observations are not within 24 hours.

Binance funding at Oct 18 00:00 UTC is +0.006412%/8h; the last 30 observations, approximately ten days, average +0.002657%/8h. OI is 94,267.08 BTC or $7.679B, down 12.67% across 30 daily observations spanning 29 days. The account long/short ratio is 1.748. Quarterly basis is 5.53% annualized at Oct 17 00:00 UTC, explicitly delayed. Liquidations and options put/call are missing. The derivative composite is neutral, without claiming that deleveraging is complete.

No complete current ETF table was retrieved. Missing flow is not zero flow and does not establish a positive reversal.

4. Total score and regime-modified action

Partial effective score: -0.0875, displayed -0.09, in the hold/watch band. There is no complete high-confidence valuation score. Missing Z, NUPL, STH, comparable production cost and aged macro inputs materially limit the evidence; zeroing them is not confirmation of neutral fundamentals.

Including only the dated raw macro score gives a diagnostic -0.1125, still watch. Stale MVRV-Z and NUPL must not be added back to manufacture an entry signal.

Price remains above SMA200, so Hot-Transition is not active. Below SMA200 with fresh MVRV>1.5 would activate that warning. Cheap-Transition also requires trend confirmation before adding. Early-bear and Frothy-Bull downgrades do not currently apply.

5. Three independent horizons

• Tactical, 1–4 weeks: watch, with a defensive tilt. The weekly return is -1.80%; RSI46.24 is not extremely oversold. OI has fallen from a month ago, but accounts remain long-heavy at 1.748. Retain the $86,600 breakout and $76,000 downside observation areas.
• Cyclic, 1–6 months: cautious. The SMA slope is deeply negative, halving age is about 30 months, and real-yield/liquidity conditions remain restrictive. Price above SMA200 is counterevidence, preserving TRANSITION.
• Strategic, 6–24 months: staged observation, without a heavy-buy signal. Old MVRV/NUPL values are not bubbly, but their roughly 42nd percentiles are not extreme-bottom readings either. Require fresh on-chain evidence together with trend or cost-zone stabilization.

6. Hard triggers

Except for the dynamic SMA/Mayer calculations, $86,600 and $76,000 are retained observation lines, not newly calculated fair values or promised targets.

7. ETH snapshot

ETH MVRV is also observed Oct 16 00:00 UTC, about 50 hours old. This snapshot does not create a complete ETH multi-anchor score or substitute the ratio for ETH MVRV-Z.

8. MSTR mapping, issuance and scenarios

Timing: MSTR is Friday Oct 16's close; BTC is Sunday Oct 18's snapshot. The model is cross-date and is not a synchronized arbitrage premium.

FMP Q2 totalDebt of $6.770777B mixes debt/lease definitions; preferredStock is book value, not a current liquidation claim. The Strategy Debt page did not supply complete numeric rows.

In the disclosed Oct 5–11 week, Strategy sold 125,183 MSTR shares for $21.0M net and added $0.5M cash to acquire 250 BTC; it repurchased 1,932,145 STRC shares for $192.4M. ADSO rose 0.049% from Sept 30's 451.577M to 451.797M. Holdings rose 0.069% from 847,666 to 848,250 over that same period, so BTC/ADSO rose about 0.020% since quarter-end. This does not establish the exact weekly per-share change: an Oct 4 ADSO value was not obtained, and quarter-end shares must not be spliced with Oct 4 holdings.

Method correction: dividing by ADSO, which assumes all convertibles have converted, while deducting all convertible debt/preferred claims double-counts conversion dilution. An unconverted approach uses basic shares and deducts outstanding senior claims. A converted approach adds back converted claims, retains unconverted claims and uses ADSO. The prior report's approximately 1.14x net mNAV and claimed weekly 0.019% BTC/share decline should not be treated as verified baselines; neither is carried forward today.

The Oct 16-filed 8-K for an Oct 15 event and same-day proxy materials concern STRC's 12% annual November dividend and conditional daily record/next-business-day payment arrangements. They do not provide newer holdings or shares. Filing dates must not date-wash old balances. See the latest 8-K ↗ and holdings/capital update ↗.

The following gross BTC NAV/ADSO mapping explicitly ignores debt, preferred claims, cash, software value and taxes. Multiples of 1.0x/1.2x/1.5x are scenario assumptions, not net common NAV or targets. Holdings and ADSO are frozen at Oct 11:

A true common-equity premium or discount requires senior-claim reconciliation and consistent conversion treatment. A 0.892x gross mapping alone does not establish cheapness.

9. Sources, boundaries and today's conclusion

BTC: TRANSITION / Sideways; partial effective score -0.09; watch. Evidence gaps prevent a confident add. Valuation, technical conditions and trigger lines remain separate across three independent horizons. NUPL and Z are both zeroed for staleness today. Explicit calculation conventions mean small score changes versus older editions are not a reliable daily backtest.

MSTR: verified gross BTC/ADSO mapping about $153.36; current net common mNAV is unverified. Monitor per-share BTC, senior capital and premiums, without promoting the unreconciled 1.14x estimate to a current fact.

Verification sources: FMP ↗, Binance market-data documentation ↗, CoinMetrics ↗, mempool.space ↗, FRED ↗, Yahoo DXY history ↗, Strategy shares ↗, Q2 filing ↗.

Spot quotes are collection snapshots; crypto bars are completed UTC days; MSTR is the latest completed U.S. session. Research score judgments are distinct from framework action bands. Missing inputs are not confirmed neutrality; scenarios are not price promises.