BTC daily report · 2026-10-17

Generated around 10:15 Beijing time on 2026-10-17; completed crypto and U.S. equity bars through 2026-10-16.

1. Data health and fallbacks

FMP was the first source for applicable market fields and returned normally. Its SEC search identified a new 8-K filed Oct 16 for an Oct 15 event; it updates STRC dividend mechanics but does not change the Oct 11 BTC holdings or share denominator. Missing and stale weighted fields are neutralized without reweighting.

2. BTC regime and price

BTC is TRANSITION for five completed days, with a Sideways-Transition sub-zone. It is about 29.9 months after the April 20, 2024 halving, inside the 24–36 month late-cycle/bear window.

The bull rule needs price above SMA200 and slope above +5%; the bear rule needs price below SMA200 and slope below -5%. Only the first bull condition is met.

3. Multi-anchor valuation

Positive scores mean cheaper or supportive; negative scores mean expensive or adverse. Missing/stale inputs are zeroed without weight redistribution.

Formulas: MVRV = market cap / realized cap; NUPL = 1 - 1/MVRV; proxy MVRV-Z = (market cap - market cap/MVRV) / population standard deviation of all-history market cap. The Oct 15 market cap was about $1.650T, reconstructed realized cap about $1.082T and all-history market-cap standard deviation about $0.618T. This is not a vendor-standard MVRV-Z and is about 50 hours stale, so it is excluded from the confident action score. The ratio remains explanatory at 0% weight.

Mining cost uses 140.578T difficulty, 3.125 BTC subsidy, 15–25 J/TH and $0.04–$0.07/kWh. It excludes depreciation, operations, financing and fees. Thirty-day hash rate was about 976.1 EH/s versus 919.1 EH/s previously. Thirty-day active addresses averaged 646.2K versus 636.6K, but remain low in five-year context.

Macro observations: DFII10 2.78% and DGS10 5.10% on Oct 15; Fed assets $6.756T and TGA $0.886T on Oct 14; ON RRP $0.100B on Oct 16. Net liquidity is about $5.870T, down about 1.3% over 90 days. U.S. M2 was $23.343T on Aug 1, about +5.7% year over year. Global M2 is missing. The transparent DXY proxy is 101.78, up about 1.06% over 90 days.

Binance derivatives: latest available funding +0.00662% per eight hours, 30-observation mean +0.00100%; OI about 94,276 BTC or $7.69B, down 12.9%; account ratio 1.73. Latest available quarterly basis was 5.1% annualized on Oct 12. The composite is neutral.

4. Score and regime-modified action

Effective score: -0.08, hold/watch. Mechanically including the stale raw MVRV-Z score would produce about +0.05, still hold/watch. Transition rules prevent an add based only on below-average MVRV. Hold the core and wait for trend or value confirmation rather than chase a one-day rebound.

5. Independent horizons

• Tactical, 1–4 weeks: neutral to defensive. The 30-day return is +7.10%, but RSI is only 40.1; OI has fallen while the long/short ratio remains elevated. The $86.6K ceiling is unbroken and $76K remains the value-watch area.
• Cyclic, 1–6 months: cautious. The -33.8% SMA slope, 29.9-month halving age, 2.78% real yield and contracting net liquidity are the main counterevidence. Price above SMA200 prevents a bear label.
• Strategic, 6–24 months: retain core, stage new capital. MVRV and NUPL are not bubbly, but MVRV-Z is stale and STH cost basis is missing. Better heavy-add odds require trend recovery or fresh on-chain undervaluation plus stabilization around $72K–$76K.

6. Hard triggers

• Trend add: five closes above $86,600 and SMA slope above -5%; reduce size if funding, OI and basis are crowded.
• Value watch: about $76,000; no automatic buy without fresh MVRV-Z and price stabilization.
• Bear/red line: five closes below dynamic SMA200, now about $72,398, with slope below -5%. Price below SMA200 while MVRV exceeds 1.5 is Hot-Transition and forbids adds.
• Overheat reduction: Mayer at least 1.50, now about $108,598, plus fresh MVRV-Z, ETF chasing and derivatives crowding.

7. ETH snapshot

Binance ETHUSDT spot was $2,423.68; FMP ETHUSD, OKX ETH-USDT and CoinGecko ETHUSD were $2,419.79 / $2,424.02 / $2,420.92. The completed close was $2,423.54; 1d/7d/30d returns were -0.76% / -2.58% / +0.22%; SMA200 was $2,145.79 and RSI(14) 30.5.

The ETH MVRV observation is also Oct 15 00:00 UTC, about 50 hours old and STALE_CRITICAL. Oversold RSI is tactical, not intrinsic-value confirmation.

8. MSTR mapping and scenarios

The new 8-K filed Oct 16 did not change BTC holdings, debt, preferred face amount or ADSO. It confirmed a 12% annual STRC dividend rate for November and conditional daily record dates and next-business-day payments, totaling $1.00 per share if approvals become effective. It does not change current NAV but reinforces the common-equity deduction for expensive preferred capital.

From Oct 5–11, Strategy sold 125,183 MSTR shares for $21.0M net and used that plus $0.5M cash to buy 250 BTC. It repurchased 1,932,145 STRC shares for $192.4M. ADSO rose 0.049% while BTC holdings rose 0.029%, so BTC per ADSO fell about 0.019%. MSTR fell much more than BTC on Oct 16, compressing estimated net mNAV from about 1.25x to 1.14x.

The FMP share field cites the June 30 filing and is rejected as the current NAV denominator. Preferred notional of about $13.753B is an estimate pending the next 10-Q or capital-structure refresh. Formula: net common NAV/share = (848,250 × BTC price + $5.5205B - $6.714B - $13.753B) / 451.797M. Scenarios include current debt, preferreds and dollar assets but freeze those balances and ADSO; they exclude software value, taxes and future issuance or repurchases.

9. Conclusion and boundaries

BTC: hold/watch. Valuation is not bubbly, but trend, cycle and macro remain adverse and the key on-chain proxy is about 50 hours stale. Effective score is -0.08; watch $86,600, $76,000 and dynamic SMA200 near $72,398.

MSTR: $136.83 is about 1.14x estimated net common NAV. BTC per diluted share slipped in the latest disclosed week. MSTR is not a debt-free BTC ETF; debt, preferreds, dollar assets, ATM issuance and conversion dilution all matter.

This is framework-based research, not personalized investment advice. Trigger lines are conditions, not forecasts.