ETH daily report · 2026-11-14
Five consecutive BEAR readings confirm the downtrend; ETH is Cheap-Bear, while stale on-chain anchors and weak value capture block a clean-bottom call.
Observation time: about 11:20 Beijing / 03:20 UTC on 2026-11-14. Price regime and structural coverage come first; valuation and execution triggers are kept separate.
1. Data health and fallbacks
| Data group | data_source_used / timestamp | is_fallback | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT/BTCUSDT live and daily bars | Binance plugin; live about 03:19 UTC, completed bars through Nov. 13 | No | Primary route worked; USD and USDT labels remain separate |
| USD prices and BMNR | FMP MCP; crypto live and BMNR through Nov. 13 | No | FMP was used first for applicable financial fields |
| Independent price check | OKX and CoinGecko, about 03:17–03:19 UTC | Yes | OKX ETH-USDT $1,902.20 and BTC-USDT $67,324.80; CoinGecko ETH $1,903 and BTC $67,404 |
| On-chain | CoinMetrics; MVRV/market cap/supply through Nov. 12, activity through Nov. 13 00:00 UTC | Yes | STALE_CRITICAL: critical observations exceed 24h; MVRV ratio is not MVRV-Z |
| Fees/TVL/L2 | DeFiLlama and L2Beat, Nov. 14 | Yes | TVL $38.85bn; 30-day gross chain fees $410.4m; protocol revenue and exact L1 capture missing |
| Issuance/burn/staking | CoinMetrics net-supply proxy; ultrasound.money reference | Yes | Exact burn and protocol issuance yield missing; beaconcha.in returned 401 |
| Derivatives | Binance USDⓈ-M plugin, Nov. 14 | No | Funding, OI, basis and long/short available; liquidations and put-call missing |
| ETF flows | Farside | Yes | HTTP 403; DATA_MISSING; no browser bypass used |
| Macro | FRED and dated DXY fallback | Mixed | DFII10/DGS10 through Nov. 12; liquidity through Nov. 11–13; DXY carried from Nov. 11 |
| Treasury disclosures | BMNR Nov. 9 8-K exhibit and Nov. 10 10-K | Field-specific | No newer holdings disclosure found; holdings as of Nov. 8 and official share denominator as of Nov. 4 |
FMP is not an authority for on-chain, burn, L2, ETF flows or treasury holdings. Its SEC-filings endpoint hit the observed plan quota, so the official SEC feed was used only to check for newer BMNR filings; none disclosed newer treasury holdings. Previously access-restricted CoinMetrics metrics IssContNtv, FeeTotUSD and CapRealUSD were not retried. Missing or stale anchors are neutralized and weights are not redistributed.
2. ETH regime, structural health and sub-zone
| Item | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 13 completed ETHUSDT close | $1,929.88 | Binance UTC daily bar |
| Live ETHUSDT / BTCUSDT | $1,908.64 / $67,545.91 | Same collection window |
| 200D SMA / annualized six-month SMA slope | $2,148.79 / -36.10% | Computed locally from one dated series of completed Binance closes |
| RSI(14) | 24.27 | Oversold, but not capitulation evidence by itself |
| 1d / 7d / 30d | -4.45% / -13.79% / -20.31% | Close-to-close returns |
| Live ETH/BTC | 0.028257 | Timestamp-aligned USDT prices |
| Five-year percentile / mean | 11.99% / 0.04938 | Aligned completed Binance history |
Nov. 9–13 are five consecutive day-only BEAR readings, so the persistent regime is now BEAR confirmed 5/5. ETH/BTC is still above its five-year 10th-percentile red line but remains historically weak. Exact L2 capture and burn YoY are missing, so structural_health=0 with incomplete coverage. Layer 1 is Cheap-Bear because MVRV is below 1, but stale on-chain anchors, weak ETH/BTC and unverified value capture prevent this from being treated as a clean bottom.
3. Multi-anchor valuation
BEAR weights: MVRV-Z 20%, Real Yield 25%, Fee Revenue Yield 15%, ETH/BTC 10%, Burn/Issuance 10%, L2 Capture 5%, Network Activity 5%, Macro 5%, Derivatives 5%.
| Anchor | Current value | Context | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV-Z/proxy | MVRV ratio 0.9398 on Nov. 12; Z-score missing | Five-year percentile 18.30%, mean 1.1445; stale | 0 | 20% | 0.00 |
| Real Yield | Protocol staking issuance yield and exact burn missing; seven-day supply proxy indicates 0.88% annualized inflation | N/A | 0 | 25% | 0.00 |
| Fee Revenue Yield | Protocol revenue missing; $410.4m 30-day gross fees imply only a rough 2.00% annualized fees/market-cap proxy | TVL $38.85bn; gross fees are not revenue | 0 | 15% | 0.00 |
| ETH/BTC | 0.028257 | Five-year percentile 11.99%, mean 0.04938 | -1 | 10% | -0.10 |
| Burn/Issuance | Exact split missing; 1d/7d/29d net-supply proxies imply 0.88%/0.88%/0.86% annualized inflation | Burn YoY missing | -1 | 10% | -0.10 |
| L2 Capture | L2_CAPTURE_ESTIMATE: DATA_MISSING | TVL/TVS is not capture | 0 | 5% | 0.00 |
| Network Activity | Active addresses 828,404 on Nov. 13, 5.8% below the latest seven-day mean | Five-year percentile not refreshed; stale | 0 | 5% | 0.00 |
| Macro | DFII10 2.86%, DGS10 5.10%, DXY 102.91 carried from Nov. 11 | Higher yields remain a headwind | -1 | 5% | -0.05 |
| Derivatives | Current funding +0.00075%/8h; OI about 2.32m ETH / $4.43bn; long/short 3.78; quarterly basis about +4.66% | Funding mild, accounts still crowded long | -1 | 5% | -0.05 |
MVRV and network activity exceed the 24-hour freshness boundary, and MVRV is not MVRV-Z, so both contribute zero. Gross chain fees are not protocol revenue. BMNR's advertised staking yield does not replace Ethereum protocol issuance yield.
4. Total score and modified action
The effective score is -0.30, mapped to hold/watch under the fixed boundaries. The regime modifier is now BEAR: do not add; keep the tactical reduction review active until the trend or measurable value capture improves. Cheap-Bear describes valuation relative to the current cycle, not a verified capitulation bottom.
5. Three independent windows
- Tactical 1–4 weeks: small reduce / defensive watch. ETH below $2,500 and ETH/BTC below 0.030 remain triggered. Funding is mild, but accounts are crowded long and five-day BEAR is confirmed.
- Cyclic 1–6 months: reduce / wait for repair. Re-entry review requires persistent closes back above the trend thresholds, not one oversold bounce.
- Strategic 6–24 months: conditional hold, not a clean bottom-fishing setup. MVRV below 1 preserves long-run optionality, but it is stale and fee yield, net supply and L1 capture remain weak or unverified. Adds remain capped while structural coverage is incomplete.
6. Hard trigger lines
| Type | Condition | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Small-add review | Three closes above $2,500, ETH/BTC above 0.030 for three days, funding not crowded | Not triggered |
| Cyclic add | Price above $2,700, SMA200 slope above -5%, and fees or burn improving | Not triggered |
| Tactical reduce review | Close below $2,500 and ETH/BTC below 0.030 | Triggered |
| BEAR confirmation | Price below about $2,149 and slope below -5% for five days | Triggered; five days confirmed |
| Structural red lines | ETH/BTC below five-year 10th percentile; L2 capture below 2%; or burn down over 70% YoY for a long duration | First not yet triggered; latter two missing |
| Real-yield warning | Verifiable real yield turns negative | Not verifiable; warning retained |
7. BMNR mapping and scenarios
FMP's latest completed BMNR close is $17.58 on Nov. 13, with vendor market cap about $10.01bn. BMNR's Nov. 9 official 8-K exhibit reports holdings as of Nov. 8: 6,070,092 ETH, including 5,227,037 staked ETH, plus 216 BTC, $475m cash/securities, $180m Beast and $75m ORBS. The Nov. 10 10-K cover reports 626,451,021 shares outstanding as of Nov. 4. FMP's implied vendor share count differs, so per-share NAV uses the official denominator while vendor market cap is only a cross-check.
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| ETH per share | 0.0096897 ETH |
| ETH-only NAV/share | $18.49 |
| Total-asset NAV/share | $19.68 |
| Price / ETH-only NAV | 0.951x |
| Price / total-asset NAV | 0.893x |
| ETH cost basis | N/A, not disclosed |
| ETH price | 0.75x ETH-only NAV/share | 1.0x | 1.2x | Total-asset NAV/share note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,800 | $13.08 | $17.44 | $20.93 | $18.63 |
| $2,200 | $15.99 | $21.32 | $25.58 | $22.51 |
| $2,600 | $18.89 | $25.19 | $30.23 | $26.38 |
| $3,000 | $21.80 | $29.07 | $34.88 | $30.26 |
The total-asset note uses about $745.9m of non-ETH assets at face value and does not deduct taxes, liabilities, costs, staking risk or discounts. ATM dilution, buybacks and later issuance, denominator lag, persistent treasury-stock discounts, ETH/BTC weakness and weak L1 fee capture can all offset NAV. No precise SBET mNAV is fabricated because a current official treasury denominator was not verified.
8. Cross-asset and macro context
| Item | Current / date | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ETH/BTC | 0.028257; five-year 11.99 percentile | Historically weak, but still above the 10% red line |
| BTC/ETH dominance | 58.80% / 10.10%, Nov. 14 | Structure still favors BTC |
| DFII10 / DGS10 | 2.86% / 5.10%, Nov. 12 | Real and nominal yields are headwinds |
| WALCL / WTREGEN | $6.759tn / $912.134bn, Nov. 11 | Balance-sheet and Treasury-account context |
| RRPONTSYD | $0.325bn, Nov. 13 | Buffer remains nearly exhausted |
| Approx. net liquidity | $5.847tn | WALCL minus Treasury account and RRP proxy |
| M2SL | $23.414tn, Sep. 2026 | Monthly lag |
| DXY | 102.91, Nov. 11 carried value | Current request returned 429; dated fallback retained |
Macro is negative and carries 5% BEAR weight. It changes risk boundaries and contributes -0.05 to the score.
9. Sources and caveats
Sources include the Binance Spot/USDⓈ-M plugin, FMP MCP, CoinMetrics Community, ultrasound.money, DeFiLlama, L2Beat, FRED, CoinGecko, OKX and BMNR official SEC filings. Critical limitations: CoinMetrics anchors exceed 24h; MVRV-Z, protocol issuance yield, exact burn, L2-to-L1 capture, protocol revenue, ETF flows and BMNR real-time fully diluted shares are missing; DXY is a dated fallback. This is framework research, not investment advice or a return guarantee.
Source data
- Binance Spot and USD-M plugin ↗2026-11-14 · ETHUSDT and BTCUSDT live around 2026-11-14 03:19 UTC; completed 1d bars through 2026-11-13; ETH derivatives on 2026-11-14.
- Financial Modeling Prep ↗2026-11-14 · ETHUSD/BTCUSD live and BMNR completed quote through 2026-11-13; BMNR profile and SEC filing discovery.
- CoinMetrics Community API ↗2026-11-13 · ETH MVRV, market cap and supply through 2026-11-12; activity through 2026-11-13 00:00 UTC; critical observations over 24h.
- ultrasound.money ↗2026-11-14 · Burn and issuance reference; exact split unavailable, CoinMetrics net-supply proxy used.
- DeFiLlama ↗2026-11-14 · Ethereum TVL and gross chain fees retrieved 2026-11-14; fees are not protocol revenue and TVL is not L1 capture.
- L2Beat ↗2026-11-14 · L2 structure reference; exact L2-to-L1 capture unavailable.
- BMNR November 9 8-K exhibit ↗2026-11-09 · Holdings as of 2026-11-08: 6,070,092 ETH, 5,227,037 staked ETH, 216 BTC, $475m cash/securities, $180m Beast and $75m ORBS.
- BMNR 2026 Form 10-K ↗2026-11-10 · 626,451,021 common shares issued and outstanding as of 2026-11-04; filed 2026-11-10.
- FRED ↗2026-11-14 · DFII10 and DGS10 through 2026-11-12; WALCL and Treasury account through 2026-11-11; RRP through 2026-11-13; M2 through 2026-09.
- CoinGecko global ↗2026-11-14 · BTC and ETH dominance retrieved around 2026-11-14 03:17 UTC.
- OKX spot ↗2026-11-14 · ETH-USDT and BTC-USDT cross-check around 2026-11-14 03:17 UTC.
- Farside ETH ETF flows ↗2026-11-14 · Direct HTTP returned 403 on 2026-11-14; ETF flows missing.
- Beaconcha.in validator API ↗2026-11-14 · Direct API returned 401 on 2026-11-14; validator data and protocol staking yield missing.
Previous reports
Dates without a complete report are marked below. Short notifications are not presented as full reports.