ETH daily report · 2026-11-11

Observation time: about 10:55 Beijing time (02:55 UTC) on 2026-11-11. Regime and structural coverage come before valuation; valuation and execution triggers remain separate.

1. Data health and fallbacks

FMP is not authority for on-chain, burn, L2, ETF flows or treasury holdings. Previously restricted CoinMetrics IssContNtv, FeeTotUSD and CapRealUSD were not equivalently retried. Missing or stale anchors are neutralized without reallocating their weights.

2. ETH regime, structural health and sub-zone

Nov. 8–10 are three consecutive day-only BEAR signals, while Nov. 6–7 were TRANSITION. Five-day persistence therefore remains TRANSITION with a three-day BEAR warning. ETH/BTC is above its five-year 10th-percentile boundary but remains close to it and below the 60th percentile. Exact L2 capture and burn YoY are missing, so structural_health=0, incomplete coverage. Layer 1 is Weak-Transition, nearing Bear; a low MVRV proxy is not a clean buy while ETH/BTC remains weak.

3. Multi-anchor valuation

Transition weights: MVRV-Z 20%, Real Yield 25%, Fee Revenue Yield 10%, ETH/BTC 15%, Burn/Issuance 10%, L2 Capture 10%, Network Activity 5%, Macro 0%, Derivatives 5%.

The MVRV ratio is stale and is not MVRV-Z, so it contributes zero. Gross chain fees are not protocol revenue, and BMNR's stated staking yield is not substituted for Ethereum protocol issuance yield.

4. Score and modified action

Effective score -0.30, mapping to hold/watch at the fixed boundary. The five-day regime remains Transition, but three consecutive Bear days and ETH/BTC below 0.030 keep risk asymmetric. With incomplete structural coverage and no confirmed capitulation: do not increase size; keep the tactical reduction review active and wait for trend repair or verified value-capture improvement.

5. Three independent windows

• Tactical 1–4 weeks: small reduce / defensive watch. ETH<2,500 plus ETH/BTC<0.030 remains triggered; oversold RSI and negative latest funding allow a rebound, but accounts remain crowded long.
• Cyclic 1–6 months: hold/watch, defensive bias. Three Bear days are not yet five-day confirmation. Two more qualifying closes would downgrade this window to reduce.
• Strategic 6–24 months: conditional hold, not clean bottom-fishing. MVRV below 1 and above-average address activity can support long-run optionality, but both are stale and fee yield, net supply and L1 capture remain weak or unverifiable. structural_health<=-2 would cap adds at small-add/watch.

6. Hard trigger lines

7. BMNR mapping and scenarios

FMP's latest completed BMNR close is $18.08 on Nov. 10, market cap about $10.30bn. BMNR's Nov. 9 official 8-K exhibit reports holdings as of Nov. 8: 6,070,092 ETH, including 5,227,037 staked ETH, plus 216 BTC, $475m cash/securities, $180m Beast and $75m ORBS. The Nov. 10 10-K cover reports 626,451,021 shares as of Nov. 4, replacing the July denominator; it is not a real-time fully diluted count.

The total-asset note includes about $745.9m of non-ETH assets at face value, before taxes, liabilities, expenses, staking risk or discounts. ATM dilution, repurchases and later issuance, denominator lag, persistent treasury-stock discounts, ETH/BTC weakness and weak L1 fee capture can offset NAV. SBET closed Nov. 10 at $5.85; no current official treasury denominator was verified, so no false-precision mNAV is shown.

8. Cross-asset and macro

Macro is negative, but Transition weight is 0%; it changes risk boundaries, not the score.

9. Sources and caveats

Sources: Binance Spot/USDⓈ-M plugin, FMP MCP, CoinMetrics Community, ultrasound.money, DeFiLlama, L2Beat, FRED, Yahoo, OKX, CoinGecko and BMNR official SEC filings. Critical limitations: critical CoinMetrics anchors are older than 24 hours; MVRV-Z, protocol issuance yield, exact burn, L2-to-L1 capture, protocol revenue, ETF flows and BMNR real-time fully diluted shares are missing. Framework research only, not investment advice or a return guarantee.