ETH daily report · 2026-11-10
ETH remains in a five-day Transition regime with two consecutive day-only Bear signals. The effective multi-anchor score is -0.30 (hold/watch), while the tactical reduction-review trigger remains active. BMNR's November 9 disclosure raises ETH holdings to 6,070,092.
Observation time: about 17:05 Beijing time (09:05 UTC) on 2026-11-10. Regime and structural coverage come before valuation; valuation and execution triggers remain separate.
1. Data health and fallbacks
| Data group | data_source_used / time | is_fallback | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT/BTCUSDT live and daily bars | Binance plugin; live about 09:02 UTC, completed bars through Nov. 9 | No | One symbol per call; primary route healthy |
| USD history and BMNR/SBET | FMP MCP; crypto through Nov. 9, equities through Nov. 9 | No | Exact namespace called first; USD and USDT labels remain distinct |
| Independent price cross-check | OKX and Yahoo, about 09:02 UTC | Yes | OKX ETH-USDT $2,104.94 and BTC-USDT $74,439; Yahoo long history used independently |
| On-chain | CoinMetrics; MVRV/cap/supply/addresses through Nov. 9 00:00 UTC | Yes | STALE_CRITICAL: about 33h; MVRV ratio is not MVRV-Z |
| Fees/TVL/L2 | DeFiLlama and L2Beat, Nov. 10 | Yes | TVL $41.78bn; 30D chain fees $20.05m; protocol revenue and exact L1 capture missing |
| Issuance/burn/staking | CoinMetrics net-supply proxy; ultrasound.money reference | Yes | Exact burn and protocol issuance yield missing; BMNR's 2.65% is company trailing-7D staking yield, not protocol yield |
| Derivatives | Binance USDⓈ-M plugin | No | Funding, OI, basis and long/short available; liquidations/put-call missing |
| ETF flows | Farside | Yes | HTTP 403; DATA_MISSING, no browser bypass |
| Macro | FMP Treasury, FRED and Yahoo DXY | Mixed | FMP 10Y through Nov. 9; exact FRED observation dates shown below |
| Treasury disclosure | BMNR Nov. 9 8-K exhibit | Field-specific | Holdings current to Nov. 8; official per-share denominator remains stale |
FMP is not authority for on-chain, burn, L2, ETF flows or treasury holdings. Previously restricted CoinMetrics IssContNtv, FeeTotUSD and CapRealUSD were not equivalently retried. Missing or stale anchors are neutralized without reallocating their weights.
2. ETH regime, structural health and sub-zone
| Item | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT completed close, Nov. 9 | $2,135.24 | Binance UTC daily bar |
| Live ETHUSDT / BTCUSDT | $2,103.22 / $74,370.47 | Same collection window |
| 200D SMA / annualized 6M slope | $2,155.03 / -37.73% | Locally calculated from one dated Binance close series |
| RSI(14) | 36.12 | Weak, but not capitulation evidence |
| 1d / 7d / 30d | +0.37% / -5.24% / -14.81% | Close-to-close returns, not open-to-close vendor change |
| Live ETH/BTC | 0.028280 | Same-time USDT prices |
| Five-year percentile / mean | 11.87% / 0.04958 | Aligned Yahoo USD history cross-check |
Nov. 8 and Nov. 9 are day-only BEAR signals, while Nov. 5–7 were TRANSITION. Five-day persistence therefore remains TRANSITION with a two-day BEAR warning. ETH/BTC is above its five-year 10th-percentile boundary but remains close to it and below the 60th percentile. Exact L2 capture and burn YoY are missing, so structural_health=0, incomplete coverage. Layer 1 is Weak-Transition, nearing Bear; a low MVRV proxy is not a clean buy while ETH/BTC remains weak.
3. Multi-anchor valuation
Transition weights: MVRV-Z 20%, Real Yield 25%, Fee Revenue Yield 10%, ETH/BTC 15%, Burn/Issuance 10%, L2 Capture 10%, Network Activity 5%, Macro 0%, Derivatives 5%.
| Anchor | Current | 5Y percentile / mean | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV-Z/proxy | MVRV ratio 0.9721 (Nov. 9); Z-score missing | 22.56% / 1.1507 | 0 | 20% | 0.00 |
| Real Yield | Protocol staking issuance yield and exact burn missing; 7D supply proxy implies 0.88% annualized inflation | N/A | 0 | 25% | 0.00 |
| Fee Revenue Yield | Protocol revenue missing; $20.05m 30D gross chain fees imply only a rough 0.09% annualized fee/market-cap proxy | N/A | 0 | 10% | 0.00 |
| ETH/BTC | 0.028280 | 11.87% / 0.04958 | -1 | 15% | -0.15 |
| Burn/Issuance | Exact split missing; 1D/7D/30D net-supply proxies 0.89%/0.88%/0.86% annualized inflation | Burn YoY missing | -1 | 10% | -0.10 |
| L2 Capture | L2_CAPTURE_ESTIMATE: DATA_MISSING | TVL/TVS is not capture | 0 | 10% | 0.00 |
| Network activity | Active addresses 807,775 (Nov. 9) | 84.85% / 620,963 | 0 | 5% | 0.00 |
| Macro | DFII10 2.63%; FMP DGS10 4.88%; DXY 101.65 | N/A | -1 | 0% | 0.00 |
| Derivatives | Funding +0.00304%/8h, 12-print avg +0.00375%; OI $4.79bn, -1.19% daily; long/short 3.81; quarterly basis 4.33% annualized | Long-heavy accounts despite modest funding | -1 | 5% | -0.05 |
The MVRV ratio is stale and is not MVRV-Z, so it contributes zero. Gross chain fees are not protocol revenue, and BMNR's stated staking yield is not substituted for Ethereum protocol issuance yield.
4. Score and modified action
Effective score -0.30, mapping to hold/watch at the fixed boundary. The five-day regime remains Transition, but two consecutive Bear days and ETH/BTC below 0.030 keep risk asymmetric. With incomplete structural coverage and no confirmed capitulation: do not increase size; keep the tactical reduction review active and wait for trend repair or verified value-capture improvement.
5. Three independent windows
- Tactical 1–4 weeks: small reduce / defensive watch. ETH<2,500 plus ETH/BTC<0.030 remains triggered; long/short accounts are crowded even though funding is modest.
- Cyclic 1–6 months: hold/watch, defensive bias. Two Bear days are not yet five-day confirmation. Three more qualifying closes would downgrade this window to reduce.
- Strategic 6–24 months: conditional hold, not clean bottom-fishing. MVRV below 1 and above-average address activity can support long-run optionality, but both are stale and fee yield, net supply and L1 capture remain weak or unverifiable. structural_health<=-2 would cap adds at small-add/watch.
6. Hard trigger lines
| Type | Condition | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Small-add review | Three closes >$2,500, ETH/BTC >0.030 for three days, funding not crowded | Not triggered |
| Cyclic add | Price >$2,700, SMA200 slope >-5%, fee or burn improves | Not triggered |
| Tactical reduction review | Close <$2,500 and ETH/BTC <0.030 | Triggered |
| BEAR confirmation | Price below about $2,155 with slope<-5% for five days | Two days; not five-day confirmed |
| Structural red lines | ETH/BTC falls below its 5Y 10th percentile; L2 capture<2%; or burn down>70% YoY for long duration | First is near but not triggered; other two missing |
| Real Yield warning | Verifiable Real Yield turns negative | Unverifiable; warning retained |
7. BMNR mapping and scenarios
FMP's latest completed BMNR close is $18.61 on Nov. 9, market cap about $10.60bn. BMNR's Nov. 9 official 8-K exhibit reports holdings as of Nov. 8: 6,070,092 ETH, including 5,227,037 staked ETH, plus 216 BTC, $475m cash/securities, $180m Beast and $75m ORBS. The disclosed trailing-7D staking yield was 2.65%, a company yield rather than Ethereum protocol issuance yield. Calculations retain the latest official 603,226,394 shares as of 2026-07-09; FMP metadata is not treated as a newer official denominator.
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| ETH/share | 0.0100627 ETH |
| ETH-only NAV/share | $21.16 |
| Total-asset NAV/share | $22.40 |
| Price / ETH-only NAV | 0.879x |
| Price / total-asset NAV | 0.831x |
| FMP market cap / total-asset NAV | 0.784x |
| ETH cost basis | N/A, not disclosed |
| ETH price | 0.75x ETH-only NAV/share | 1.0x | 1.2x | Total-asset NAV/share note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,800 | $13.58 | $18.11 | $21.74 | $19.35 |
| $2,200 | $16.60 | $22.14 | $26.57 | $23.37 |
| $2,600 | $19.62 | $26.16 | $31.40 | $27.40 |
| $3,000 | $22.64 | $30.19 | $36.23 | $31.42 |
The total-asset note includes about $746.06m of non-ETH assets at face value, before taxes, liabilities, expenses, staking risk or discounts. ATM dilution, a stale share denominator, persistent treasury-stock discounts, ETH/BTC weakness and weak L1 fee capture can offset NAV. SBET closed at $6.13 with market cap about $1.21bn; no current official treasury denominator was verified, so no false-precision mNAV is shown.
8. Cross-asset and macro
| Item | Current / date | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ETH/BTC | 0.028280; 11.87th five-year percentile | Near historical weakness, just above the 10th-percentile red line |
| BTC/ETH dominance | 60.27% / 10.38%, Nov. 10 | Structure remains BTC-heavy |
| DFII10 | 2.63%, Nov. 6 | Real-rate headwind |
| DGS10 | FMP 4.88%, Nov. 9 | Nominal-rate headwind |
| WALCL / WTREGEN | $6.748tn / $957.175bn, Nov. 4 | Mixed liquidity |
| RRPONTSYD | $0.252bn, Nov. 9 | Buffer remains nearly exhausted |
| M2SL | $23.414tn, Sep. 2026 | Monthly lag |
| DXY | 101.65, Nov. 9 completed close | Dollar remains a headwind, though softer than prior day |
Macro is negative, but Transition weight is 0%; it changes risk boundaries, not the score.
9. Sources and caveats
Sources: Binance Spot/USDⓈ-M plugin, FMP MCP, CoinMetrics Community, ultrasound.money, DeFiLlama, L2Beat, FRED, Yahoo, OKX, CoinGecko and BMNR official SEC filings. Critical limitations: all CoinMetrics anchors are older than 24 hours; MVRV-Z, protocol issuance yield, exact burn, L2-to-L1 capture, protocol revenue, ETF flows and a current BMNR official share denominator are missing. Framework research only, not investment advice or a return guarantee.
Source data
- Binance Spot and USD-M plugin ↗2026-11-10 · ETHUSDT and BTCUSDT live prices around 2026-11-10 09:02 UTC; completed 1d bars through 2026-11-09; ETHUSDT derivatives through 2026-11-10.
- Financial Modeling Prep ↗2026-11-10 · Five-year ETHUSD/BTCUSD history through 2026-11-09; BMNR/SBET market data through 2026-11-09; Treasury and filing discovery.
- CoinMetrics Community API ↗2026-11-09 · ETH MVRV, market cap, supply and active addresses through 2026-11-09 00:00 UTC; all critical observations older than 24h at report time.
- ultrasound.money ↗2026-11-10 · Burn and issuance structure reference; exact current burn/issuance split unavailable, so CoinMetrics net-supply proxy is used.
- DeFiLlama ↗2026-11-10 · Ethereum TVL and gross chain fees retrieved 2026-11-10; gross fees are not protocol revenue and TVL is not L1 value capture.
- L2Beat ↗2026-11-10 · L2 structure reference for 2026-11-10; exact L2-to-L1 value-capture numerator and denominator unavailable.
- BMNR November 9 8-K exhibit ↗2026-11-09 · Holdings as of 2026-11-08: 6,070,092 ETH, 5,227,037 staked ETH, 216 BTC, $475m cash and securities, $180m Beast and $75m ORBS.
- BMNR May 31 2026 Form 10-Q ↗2026-07-14 · 603,226,394 shares outstanding as of 2026-07-09; explicitly stale denominator.
- FRED ↗2026-11-10 · DFII10 and DGS10 through 2026-11-06; WALCL and WTREGEN through 2026-11-04; RRPONTSYD through 2026-11-09; M2SL through 2026-09-01.
- CoinGecko global cross-check ↗2026-11-10 · BTC and ETH dominance retrieved around 2026-11-10 09:02 UTC.
- OKX spot ↗2026-11-10 · ETH-USDT and BTC-USDT cross-check around 2026-11-10 09:02 UTC.
- Yahoo Finance ETH, BTC and DXY ↗2026-11-10 · Independent ETH-USD/BTC-USD five-year history and DXY completed close through 2026-11-09.
- Farside ETH ETF flows ↗2026-11-10 · Direct HTTP returned 403 on 2026-11-10; ETF flows are missing.
Previous reports
Dates without a complete report are marked below. Short notifications are not presented as full reports.