ETH daily report · 2026-11-09
Day-only BEAR signal while five-day regime remains TRANSITION; score -0.30 and tactical reduction review stays active.
Observation time: about 10:51 Beijing time (02:51 UTC) on 2026-11-09. Regime and structural coverage come before valuation; valuation and execution triggers remain separate.
1. Data health and fallbacks
| Data group | data_source_used / time | is_fallback | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT/BTCUSDT live and daily bars | Binance plugin; completed bars through Nov. 8 | No | One symbol per call; primary route healthy |
| USD history and BMNR/SBET | FMP MCP; crypto through Nov. 8, equities through Nov. 6 | No | Exact namespace called first; USD and USDT distinct |
| Spot cross-check | OKX, about 02:52 UTC | Yes | ETH-USDT $2,149.18; BTC-USDT $75,300.40 |
| On-chain | CoinMetrics; MVRV/cap/supply through Nov. 7, addresses through Nov. 8 | Yes | STALE_CRITICAL: about 59h/27h; MVRV ratio is not MVRV-Z |
| Fees/TVL/L2 | DeFiLlama and L2Beat, Nov. 9 | Yes | TVL $42.15bn; 30D chain fees $19.98m; protocol revenue and exact L1 capture missing |
| Issuance/burn/staking | CoinMetrics supply proxy; ultrasound.money reachable; beaconcha.in HTTP 401 | Yes | Exact burn and protocol issuance yield missing; no advertised APY substitution |
| Derivatives | Binance USDⓈ-M plugin | No | Funding, OI, basis and long/short available |
| ETF flows | Farside | Yes | HTTP 403; DATA_MISSING, no browser bypass |
| Macro | FMP Treasury, Yahoo DXY, prior verified FRED | Mixed | Initial FRED group and one retry timed out; dated observations carried |
| Treasury disclosure | BMNR Nov. 2 8-K exhibit | Field-specific | Official holdings; stale per-share denominator |
FMP is not authority for on-chain, burn, L2, ETF flows or treasury holdings. CoinMetrics IssContNtv and FeeTotUSD returned HTTP 403 and equivalent restricted endpoints were not retried; CapRealUSD keeps its prior restricted status. Missing/stale anchors are neutralized without reallocating weights.
2. ETH regime, structural health and sub-zone
| Item | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT completed close, Nov. 8 | $2,127.46 | Binance UTC daily bar |
| Live ETHUSDT / BTCUSDT | $2,146.95 / $75,244.58 | Same collection window |
| 200D SMA / annualized 6M slope | $2,156.00 / -38.23% | Locally calculated from one close series |
| RSI(14) | 35.10 | Weak, not capitulation evidence |
| 1d / 7d / 30d | -5.03% / -6.50% / -14.48% | Close-to-close returns |
| Live ETH/BTC | 0.028533 | Same-time USDT prices |
| Five-year percentile / mean | 12.21% / 0.04960 | FMP aligned USD history |
Nov. 8 is a day-only BEAR signal, but the preceding four days were TRANSITION. The five-day persistent regime therefore remains TRANSITION with a day-only BEAR warning. ETH/BTC is above its 10th percentile at 0.02749 and below its 60th percentile at 0.05569. Exact L2 capture and burn YoY are missing, so structural_health=0, incomplete coverage. Layer 1 is Weak-Transition, nearing Bear; low MVRV proxy is not a clean buy.
3. Multi-anchor valuation
Transition weights: MVRV-Z 20%, Real Yield 25%, Fee Revenue Yield 10%, ETH/BTC 15%, Burn/Issuance 10%, L2 Capture 10%, Network Activity 5%, Macro 0%, Derivatives 5%.
| Anchor | Current | 5Y percentile / mean | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV-Z/proxy | MVRV ratio 1.0114 (Nov. 7); Z-score missing | 26.57% / 1.1509 | 0 | 20% | 0.00 |
| Real Yield | Protocol staking issuance yield and exact burn missing; 7D supply proxy implies 0.88% annualized inflation | N/A | 0 | 25% | 0.00 |
| Fee Revenue Yield | Protocol revenue missing; $19.98m 30D chain fees cannot substitute for revenue | N/A | 0 | 10% | 0.00 |
| ETH/BTC | 0.028533 | 12.21% / 0.04960 | -1 | 15% | -0.15 |
| Burn/Issuance | Exact split missing; 1D/7D/30D supply proxies 0.89%/0.88%/0.86% annualized inflation | Burn YoY missing | -1 | 10% | -0.10 |
| L2 Capture | L2_CAPTURE_ESTIMATE: DATA_MISSING | TVL/TVS is not capture | 0 | 10% | 0.00 |
| Network activity | Active addresses 1,031,780 (Nov. 8) | 97.22% / 620,861 | 0 | 5% | 0.00 |
| Macro | DFII10 2.60%; FMP DGS10 4.86%; DXY 102.16 | N/A | -1 | 0% | 0.00 |
| Derivatives | Funding -0.00834%/8h, 12-print avg +0.00573%; OI $4.85bn, -8.09% daily; long/short 3.79; basis about -0.05% | Long-heavy accounts with deleveraging | -1 | 5% | -0.05 |
DeFiLlama's chain-fee series changed sharply from the prior snapshot and protocol revenue is null, so no false-precision revenue yield is calculated. Stale MVRV is not Z-score and contributes zero. Real Yield is not fabricated.
4. Score and modified action
Effective score -0.30, mapping to hold/watch under the fixed boundary. The five-day regime remains TRANSITION, but a day-only BEAR signal appeared and ETH/BTC is below 0.030. With incomplete structural coverage and no confirmed capitulation: do not increase size; keep the tactical reduction review active and wait for confirmation or repair.
5. Three independent windows
- Tactical 1–4 weeks: small reduce / defensive watch. ETH<2,500 plus ETH/BTC<0.030 remains triggered. OI fell quickly, but long/short is still high.
- Cyclic 1–6 months: hold/watch, defensive bias. A day-only BEAR signal exists. Five consecutive closes below SMA200 with slope<-5% would downgrade this window to reduce.
- Strategic 6–24 months: conditional hold, not clean bottom-fishing. Low MVRV proxy and high address activity help odds, but fee yield, net supply and L1 capture are weak, stale or unverifiable. structural_health<=-2 caps adds at small-add/watch.
6. Hard trigger lines
| Type | Condition | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Small-add review | Three closes >$2,500, ETH/BTC >0.030 for three days, funding not crowded | Not triggered |
| Cyclic add | Price >$2,700, SMA200 slope >-5%, fee or burn improves | Not triggered |
| Tactical reduction review | Close <$2,500 and ETH/BTC <0.030 | Triggered |
| BEAR confirmation | Price below about $2,156 with slope<-5% for five days | Day-only; not five-day confirmed |
| Structural red lines | ETH/BTC<0.02749; L2 capture<2%; or burn down>70% YoY for long duration | First not triggered; other two missing |
| Real Yield warning | Verifiable Real Yield turns negative | Unverifiable; warning retained |
7. BMNR mapping and scenarios
FMP's latest completed BMNR close is $18.76 on Nov. 6, market cap about $10.69bn. The newest official treasury disclosure remains Nov. 2: 6,060,506 ETH, including 5,227,037 staked ETH, plus 216 BTC, $498m cash/securities, $180m Beast and $82m ORBS. Nov. 6 DEFA14A did not update holdings. Calculations retain the explicitly stale official 603,226,394 shares as of 2026-07-09; FMP's 569.58m metadata is not an official update.
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| ETH/share | 0.0100468 ETH |
| ETH-only NAV/share | $21.57 |
| Total-asset NAV/share | $22.86 |
| Price / ETH-only NAV | 0.870x |
| Price / total-asset NAV | 0.821x |
| FMP market cap / total-asset NAV | 0.775x |
| ETH cost basis | N/A, not disclosed |
| ETH price | 0.75x ETH-only NAV/share | 1.0x | 1.2x | Total-asset NAV/share note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,800 | $13.56 | $18.08 | $21.70 | $19.37 |
| $2,200 | $16.58 | $22.10 | $26.52 | $23.39 |
| $2,600 | $19.59 | $26.12 | $31.35 | $27.41 |
| $3,000 | $22.61 | $30.14 | $36.17 | $31.43 |
The total-asset note includes about $776.25m non-ETH assets at face value, before taxes, liabilities, expenses, staking risk or discount. ATM dilution, persistent treasury-stock discounts, ETH/BTC weakness and weak L1 fee capture may offset NAV. SBET closed at $6.24 with market cap about $1.23bn; no current official treasury denominator, so no false-precision mNAV.
8. Cross-asset and macro
| Item | Current / date | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ETH/BTC | 0.028533; 12.21st five-year percentile | Near historical weakness, above 10th percentile |
| BTC/ETH dominance | 60.23% / 10.45%, Nov. 9 | Structure remains BTC-heavy |
| DFII10 | 2.60%, Nov. 5 | FRED timed out; real-rate headwind |
| DGS10 | FMP 4.86%, Nov. 6 | Rate headwind |
| WALCL / WTREGEN | $6.748tn / $957.175bn, Nov. 4 | FRED timed out; mixed liquidity |
| RRPONTSYD | $0.150bn, Nov. 6 | FRED timed out; buffer nearly exhausted |
| M2SL | $23.414tn, Sep. 2026 | Monthly lag |
| DXY | 102.16, Nov. 9 | Dollar headwind |
Macro is negative, but Transition weight is 0%; it changes risk boundaries, not the score.
9. Sources and caveats
Sources: Binance Spot/USDⓈ-M plugin, FMP MCP, CoinMetrics Community, ultrasound.money, DeFiLlama, L2Beat, FRED, Yahoo, OKX, CoinGecko and BMNR official SEC filings. Critical limitations: MVRV/cap/supply and addresses are older than 24 hours; MVRV-Z, protocol issuance yield, exact burn, L2-to-L1 capture, protocol revenue and ETF flows are missing; BMNR's share denominator is stale. Framework research only, not investment advice or a return guarantee.
Source data
- Binance Spot and USD-M plugin ↗2026-11-09 · ETHUSDT and BTCUSDT live prices around 2026-11-09 02:51 UTC; completed 1d bars through 2026-11-08; ETHUSDT derivatives through 2026-11-09.
- Financial Modeling Prep ↗2026-11-09 · Five-year ETHUSD/BTCUSD history through 2026-11-08; BMNR/SBET market data through 2026-11-06; Treasury and filing discovery.
- CoinMetrics Community API ↗2026-11-08 · ETH MVRV, market cap and supply through 2026-11-07; active addresses through 2026-11-08; all critical observations older than 24h.
- ultrasound.money ↗2026-11-09 · Site reachable 2026-11-09; exact burn/issuance split unavailable, so CoinMetrics net-supply proxy is used.
- DeFiLlama ↗2026-11-09 · Ethereum TVL and chain fees retrieved 2026-11-09; protocol revenue was null and TVL is not L1 value capture.
- L2Beat ↗2026-11-09 · L2 structure reference for 2026-11-09; exact L2-to-L1 value-capture numerator and denominator unavailable.
- BMNR November 2 8-K exhibit ↗2026-11-02 · Holdings as of 2026-11-01: 6,060,506 ETH, 5,227,037 staked ETH, 216 BTC, $498m cash and securities, $180m Beast and $82m ORBS.
- BMNR May 31 2026 Form 10-Q ↗2026-07-14 · 603,226,394 shares outstanding as of 2026-07-09; explicitly stale denominator.
- FRED ↗2026-11-09 · 2026-11-09 initial group and one retry timed out; prior verified dated observations are carried.
- CoinGecko global cross-check ↗2026-11-09 · BTC and ETH dominance retrieved around 2026-11-09 02:52 UTC.
- OKX spot ↗2026-11-09 · ETH-USDT and BTC-USDT cross-check around 2026-11-09 02:52 UTC.
- Yahoo Finance DXY ↗2026-11-09 · DXY daily close 102.164 on 2026-11-09 from Yahoo chart endpoint.
- Farside ETH ETF flows ↗2026-11-09 · Direct HTTP returned 403 on 2026-11-09; ETF flows are missing.
Previous reports
Dates without a complete report are marked below. Short notifications are not presented as full reports.