ETH daily report · 2026-11-12
Four consecutive day-only BEAR readings leave the five-day regime one day short of confirmation; BMNR trades near official-denominator ETH NAV.
Observation time: about 10:49 Beijing / 02:49 UTC on 2026-11-12. Price regime and structural coverage come first; valuation and execution triggers are kept separate.
1. Data health and fallbacks
| Data group | data_source_used / timestamp | is_fallback | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT/BTCUSDT live and daily bars | Binance plugin; live about 02:46 UTC, completed bars through Nov. 11 | No | One symbol per call; primary route worked |
| USD history and BMNR/SBET | FMP MCP; crypto and equities through Nov. 11 | No | Exact namespace used first; USD and USDT labels kept separate |
| Independent price check | OKX and Yahoo, about 02:45–02:48 UTC | Yes | OKX ETH-USDT $2,057.88 and BTC-USDT $73,843.60; Yahoo supplied independent five-year USD history |
| On-chain | CoinMetrics; MVRV through Nov. 10, market cap/supply/activity through Nov. 11 00:00 UTC | Yes | STALE_CRITICAL: critical observations exceed 24h; MVRV ratio is not MVRV-Z |
| Fees/TVL/L2 | DeFiLlama and L2Beat, Nov. 12 | Yes | TVL $41.13bn; 30-day gross chain fees $404.2m; protocol revenue and exact L1 capture missing |
| Issuance/burn/staking | CoinMetrics net-supply proxy; ultrasound.money reference | Yes | Exact burn and protocol issuance yield missing; beaconcha.in returned 401 |
| Derivatives | Binance USDⓈ-M plugin through Nov. 12 00:00 UTC | No | Funding, OI, basis and long/short available; liquidations and put-call missing |
| ETF flows | Farside | Yes | HTTP 403; DATA_MISSING; no browser bypass used |
| Macro | FMP Treasury, FRED and Yahoo DXY | Mixed | Initial FRED group and its sole retry timed out; FMP 10Y through Nov. 10, DXY completed close through Nov. 11 |
| Treasury disclosures | BMNR Nov. 9 8-K exhibit and Nov. 10 10-K | Field-specific | Holdings as of Nov. 8; official share denominator as of Nov. 4 |
FMP is not an authority for on-chain, burn, L2, ETF flows or treasury holdings. Previously access-restricted CoinMetrics metrics IssContNtv, FeeTotUSD and CapRealUSD were not retried with equivalent calls. Missing or stale anchors are neutralized and weights are not redistributed.
2. ETH regime, structural health and sub-zone
| Item | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 11 completed ETHUSDT close | $2,056.36 | Binance UTC daily bar |
| Live ETHUSDT / BTCUSDT | $2,058.82 / $73,876.00 | Same collection window |
| 200D SMA / annualized six-month SMA slope | $2,152.40 / -37.32% | Computed locally from one dated series of completed Binance closes |
| RSI(14) | 29.28 | Oversold, but not capitulation evidence by itself |
| 1d / 7d / 30d | +0.15% / -15.19% / -15.97% | Close-to-close returns |
| Live ETH/BTC | 0.027869 | Timestamp-aligned USDT prices |
| Five-year percentile / mean | 10.83% / 0.04957 | Aligned FMP USD history; Yahoo independent cross-check |
Nov. 8–11 are four consecutive day-only BEAR readings, while Nov. 7 was still TRANSITION. The persistent regime therefore remains TRANSITION with a four-day BEAR warning. One more qualified completed day below the SMA with slope below -5% would confirm five-day BEAR. ETH/BTC remains just above its five-year 10th-percentile red line and below the 60th percentile. Exact L2 capture and burn YoY are missing, so structural_health=0 with incomplete coverage. Layer 1 is Weak-Transition, one day from BEAR confirmation; weak ETH/BTC prevents low MVRV from being presented as a clean buy.
3. Multi-anchor valuation
Transition weights: MVRV-Z 20%, Real Yield 25%, Fee Revenue Yield 10%, ETH/BTC 15%, Burn/Issuance 10%, L2 Capture 10%, Network Activity 5%, Macro 0%, Derivatives 5%.
| Anchor | Current value | Five-year percentile / mean | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV-Z/proxy | MVRV ratio 0.9437 on Nov. 10; Z-score missing | 18.52% / 1.1506 | 0 | 20% | 0.00 |
| Real Yield | Protocol staking issuance yield and exact burn missing; seven-day supply proxy indicates 0.88% annualized inflation | N/A | 0 | 25% | 0.00 |
| Fee Revenue Yield | Protocol revenue missing; $404.2m 30-day gross fees imply only a rough 1.94% annualized fees/market-cap proxy | N/A | 0 | 10% | 0.00 |
| ETH/BTC | 0.027869 | 10.83% / 0.04957 | -1 | 15% | -0.15 |
| Burn/Issuance | Exact split missing; 1d/7d/30d net-supply proxies imply 0.89%/0.88%/0.86% annualized inflation | Burn YoY missing | -1 | 10% | -0.10 |
| L2 Capture | L2_CAPTURE_ESTIMATE: DATA_MISSING | TVL/TVS is not capture | 0 | 10% | 0.00 |
| Network Activity | Active addresses 797,965 on Nov. 11 | 84.43% / 621,203 | 0 | 5% | 0.00 |
| Macro | DFII10 2.66% stale verified Nov. 9; FMP DGS10 4.98%; DXY 102.91 | N/A | -1 | 0% | 0.00 |
| Derivatives | Latest funding +0.00588%/8h, 30-print mean +0.00483%; OI about $4.69bn; long/short 3.21; quarterly annualized basis about +3.62% | Funding mild, accounts still crowded long | -1 | 5% | -0.05 |
MVRV and network activity are stale, and MVRV is not MVRV-Z, so both contribute zero. Gross chain fees are not protocol revenue. BMNR's advertised staking yield does not replace Ethereum protocol issuance yield.
4. Total score and modified action
The effective score is -0.30, mapped to hold/watch under the fixed boundaries. The five-day regime is still transition, but four consecutive BEAR days and ETH/BTC below 0.030 keep downside risk elevated. With incomplete structural coverage and no verified capitulation: do not add; retain the tactical reduction review until trend or measurable value capture improves.
5. Three independent windows
- Tactical 1–4 weeks: small reduce / defensive watch. ETH below $2,500 and ETH/BTC below 0.030 remain triggered. Funding is not extreme, but the account ratio is crowded long.
- Cyclic 1–6 months: hold/watch with a defensive bias. Four BEAR days do not yet satisfy five-day persistence. Another qualified completed day would downgrade this window to reduce.
- Strategic 6–24 months: conditional hold, not a clean bottom-fishing setup. MVRV below 1 and above-mean activity preserve long-run optionality, but both are stale and fee yield, net supply and L1 capture remain weak or unverified. If structural_health falls to -2 or below, adds are capped at small add/watch.
6. Hard trigger lines
| Type | Condition | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Small-add review | Three closes above $2,500, ETH/BTC above 0.030 for three days, funding not crowded | Not triggered |
| Cyclic add | Price above $2,700, SMA200 slope above -5%, and fees or burn improving | Not triggered |
| Tactical reduce review | Close below $2,500 and ETH/BTC below 0.030 | Triggered |
| BEAR confirmation | Price below about $2,152 and slope below -5% for five days | Four days; one day short |
| Structural red lines | ETH/BTC below five-year 10th percentile; L2 capture below 2%; or burn down over 70% YoY for a long duration | First is close, not triggered; latter two missing |
| Real-yield warning | Verifiable real yield turns negative | Not verifiable; warning retained |
7. BMNR mapping and scenarios
FMP's latest completed BMNR close is $19.24 on Nov. 11, with vendor market cap about $10.96bn. BMNR's Nov. 9 official 8-K exhibit reports holdings as of Nov. 8: 6,070,092 ETH, including 5,227,037 staked ETH, plus 216 BTC, $475m cash/securities, $180m Beast and $75m ORBS. Its disclosed seven-day staking yield is a company yield, not Ethereum protocol issuance yield. The Nov. 10 10-K cover reports 626,451,021 shares outstanding as of Nov. 4. FMP's vendor share count is 569,576,806, so per-share NAV uses the official denominator while vendor market cap is only a cross-check.
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| ETH per share | 0.0096897 ETH |
| ETH-only NAV/share | $19.93 |
| Total-asset NAV/share | $21.12 |
| Price / ETH-only NAV | 0.966x |
| Price / total-asset NAV | 0.911x |
| FMP market cap / total-asset NAV | 0.828x |
| ETH cost basis | N/A, not disclosed |
| ETH price | 0.75x ETH-only NAV/share | 1.0x | 1.2x | Total-asset NAV/share note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,800 | $13.08 | $17.44 | $20.93 | $18.63 |
| $2,200 | $15.99 | $21.32 | $25.58 | $22.51 |
| $2,600 | $18.89 | $25.19 | $30.23 | $26.38 |
| $3,000 | $21.80 | $29.07 | $34.88 | $30.26 |
The total-asset note uses about $745.9m of non-ETH assets at face value and does not deduct taxes, liabilities, costs, staking risk or discount. ATM dilution, buybacks and later issuance, denominator lag, persistent treasury-stock discounts, ETH/BTC weakness and weak L1 fee capture can all offset NAV. SBET closed at $6.02 on Nov. 11 with market cap about $1.19bn; no current official treasury denominator was verified, so no precise mNAV is fabricated.
8. Cross-asset and macro context
| Item | Current / date | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ETH/BTC | 0.027869; five-year 10.83 percentile | Near historical weakness, just above the 10% red line |
| BTC/ETH dominance | 59.84% / 10.14%, Nov. 12 | Structure still favors BTC |
| DFII10 | 2.66%, stale verified Nov. 9 | FRED timed out twice this run; real-rate headwind proxy |
| DGS10 | FMP 4.98%, Nov. 10 | Nominal-rate headwind |
| WALCL / WTREGEN | $6.748tn / $957.175bn, stale verified Nov. 4 | FRED timed out twice; dated fallback only |
| RRPONTSYD | $0.152bn, stale verified Nov. 10 | Buffer nearly exhausted |
| M2SL | $23.414tn, stale Sep. 2026 | Monthly lag |
| DXY | 102.91, completed Nov. 11 close | Dollar headwind strengthened |
Macro is negative but carries 0% transition weight. It changes risk boundaries, not the score.
9. Sources and caveats
Sources include the Binance Spot/USDⓈ-M plugin, FMP MCP, CoinMetrics Community, ultrasound.money, DeFiLlama, L2Beat, FRED, Yahoo, OKX, CoinGecko and BMNR official SEC filings. Critical limitations: CoinMetrics anchors exceed 24h; MVRV-Z, protocol issuance yield, exact burn, L2-to-L1 capture, protocol revenue, ETF flows and BMNR real-time fully diluted shares are missing; the initial FRED group and its one retry timed out. This is framework research, not investment advice or a return guarantee.
Source data
- Binance Spot and USD-M plugin ↗2026-11-12 · ETHUSDT and BTCUSDT live around 2026-11-12 02:46 UTC; completed 1d bars through 2026-11-11; ETH derivatives through 2026-11-12.
- Financial Modeling Prep ↗2026-11-12 · Five-year ETHUSD/BTCUSD through 2026-11-11; BMNR/SBET through 2026-11-11; Treasury, shares metadata and SEC filing discovery.
- CoinMetrics Community API ↗2026-11-11 · ETH MVRV through 2026-11-10; market cap, supply and activity through 2026-11-11 00:00 UTC; critical observations over 24h.
- ultrasound.money ↗2026-11-12 · Burn and issuance reference; exact split unavailable, CoinMetrics net-supply proxy used.
- DeFiLlama ↗2026-11-12 · Ethereum TVL and gross chain fees retrieved 2026-11-12; fees are not protocol revenue and TVL is not L1 capture.
- L2Beat ↗2026-11-12 · L2 structure reference; exact L2-to-L1 capture unavailable.
- BMNR November 9 8-K exhibit ↗2026-11-09 · Holdings as of 2026-11-08: 6,070,092 ETH, 5,227,037 staked ETH, 216 BTC, $475m cash/securities, $180m Beast and $75m ORBS.
- BMNR 2026 Form 10-K ↗2026-11-10 · 626,451,021 common shares issued and outstanding as of 2026-11-04; filed 2026-11-10.
- FRED ↗2026-11-12 · Initial public CSV group and one retry timed out on 2026-11-12; prior verified dated observations are explicitly carried as stale fallbacks.
- CoinGecko global ↗2026-11-12 · BTC and ETH dominance retrieved around 2026-11-12 02:45 UTC.
- OKX spot ↗2026-11-12 · ETH-USDT and BTC-USDT cross-check around 2026-11-12 02:45 UTC.
- Yahoo Finance ↗2026-11-12 · Independent ETH-USD/BTC-USD five-year series and DXY completed close through 2026-11-11.
- Farside ETH ETF flows ↗2026-11-12 · Direct HTTP returned 403 on 2026-11-12; ETF flows missing.
- Beaconcha.in validator API ↗2026-11-12 · Direct API returned 401 on 2026-11-12; validator data and protocol staking yield missing.
Previous reports
Dates without a complete report are marked below. Short notifications are not presented as full reports.