BTC daily report · 2026-11-13

1. Data health and fallbacks

Data cutoff is approximately 2026-11-13 10:12 Beijing time. The report determines the BTC regime before interpreting valuation. Returns, SMA200, slope, Mayer and RSI are calculated locally from the same Binance BTCUSDT completed-close series; live USDT quotes, independent USD checks and completed daily closes are kept distinct.

FMP was discovered under the exact mcp__financial_modeling_prep__ namespace and used first for applicable BTC/ETH USD checks, MSTR quote, market cap, history and SEC filing discovery. Binance remains the required primary route for crypto live prices, bars and derivatives, and CoinMetrics remains the on-chain source of record. Stale weighted anchors are neutralized and missing weights are not renormalized.

2. BTC regime, sub-zone and price

The latest completed close is below SMA200 and slope is below -5%, so the day-only rule is BEAR. However, the last five completed-day states are TRANSITION / TRANSITION / TRANSITION / TRANSITION / BEAR; therefore the required five-day persistence keeps the operative regime at TRANSITION, BEAR day 1 of 5. The cycle is in the 24–36 month late-cycle/bear window. MVRV is below 1.5, so this is not Hot-Transition. Price is below the 1.05x SMA200 value line, making the operative sub-zone Cheap-Transition, which cannot add before trend confirmation.

3. BTC multi-anchor valuation

TRANSITION weights remain in force until persistence confirms BEAR: MVRV-Z 25%, Mayer 15%, Production 10%, NUPL 15%, STH 15%, Halving 5%, Hash/active addresses 5%, Macro 5%, Derivatives 5%. MVRV ratio is explanatory at 0% and cannot replace MVRV-Z.

Exact definitions: MVRV = market cap / realized cap; NUPL = 1 - 1/MVRV; MVRV-Z = (market cap - realized cap) / expanding historical standard deviation of market cap. CoinMetrics directly reports the Nov 11 ratio; btc-oak directly reports the Nov 6 MVRV-Z series; Explore21 is a transparent own-node corroboration. All are older than 24 hours at cutoff, so their raw valuation scores do not enter the confident action score.

There is no source-grade unified current production-cost point. The report retains a labeled range from an approximately $52.4K public energy floor to an approximately $75.5K 2026Q2 weighted pre-tax public-miner cash-cost estimate rather than fabricating a point value.

CoinMetrics Nov 11 active addresses were 645,477, with 7D average 670,509 versus 30D 643,106. Hash was about 0.988 ZH/s, with 7D 0.941 versus 30D 1.026 ZH/s. mempool.space cross-checked approximately 0.928 ZH/s current and about 0.901 ZH/s for the latest day. Improving activity and softer hash leave the combined network score neutral.

Binance USDⓈ-M latest funding was 0.0100%/8h, OI 101,013 BTC (about $7.14B at spot), latest completed-day current-quarter annualized basis 5.56%, and account long/short 3.177. Elevated long crowding keeps derivatives at -0.5. The ETF fallback reports approximately +$3.1M U.S. spot BTC ETF flow for Nov 12 and remains background-only.

FRED: DFII10 2.78% and DGS10 4.98% on Nov 10; WALCL $6.759T and TGA $0.912T on Nov 11; RRP $0.00025T on Nov 12; simplified net liquidity approximately $5.846T. U.S. M2 was $23.414T in September; Global M2 is DATA_MISSING. Yahoo DXY was unavailable, so the verified Nov 6 value 102.300 is reused and labeled REUSE_FALLBACK.

4. Total score and regime-modified action

If stale chain proxies were forced in, the mechanical score would be about +0.25. Neutralizing MVRV-Z, NUPL and STH leaves an effective composite of -0.03. Directly interpretable effective-weight coverage is about 45%; missing weight is not renormalized.

-0.03 maps to hold/watch. Cheap-Transition explicitly blocks an add before trend confirmation, while the first BEAR day raises risk. Final action: hold/watch; no add. Treat a fifth consecutive BEAR day as a regime switch, not today's single close.

5. Three independent windows

Tactical: 1–4 weeks

Defensive. RSI is 29.5 and price is below SMA200, but long/short crowding is 3.18 and the regime break is only one day old. Avoid catching the first break; watch whether four more completed closes confirm BEAR or price quickly recovers the trend line.

Cyclic: 1–6 months

Cautious / downside-biased. The SMA200 slope remains -22.0%, and the cycle is late. A cyclic upgrade requires repeated closes back above SMA200, slope improvement above -5%, and fresh on-chain confirmation. A five-day BEAR confirmation would switch to the more production-cost-heavy BEAR weights.

Strategic: 6–24 months

Retain core exposure, stage new capital. MVRV-family ratios are below five-year means and not frothy, but stale chain observations, late-cycle timing and a negative trend do not justify a one-shot allocation.

6. Hard trigger lines

• Trend-add threshold: at least five completed closes above $84,107 (about 1.15x SMA200), SMA200 slope above -5%, with funding, OI and long/short not jointly overheated. Not met.
• Value-observation line: about $76,794 (1.05x SMA200). Price is below it, but Cheap-Transition does not auto-trigger an add.
• Warning line: about $73,137 (dynamic SMA200). Already broken for one completed day; four more BEAR days would satisfy persistence.
• Bear red line: five consecutive completed closes below dynamic SMA200 with slope below -5%, then switch to BEAR weights.
• Reduce-observation line: about $109,705 (Mayer 1.50), requiring simultaneous chain, ETF and derivatives overheating.
• Data red line: stale chain anchors plus rising leverage and confirmed BEAR means cut risk budget before relying on apparent cheapness.

7. ETH snapshot

Binance live ETHUSDT was $2,005.11. The Nov 12 completed close was $2,019.74, with 1d/7d/30d close returns of -1.78% / -9.75% / -19.14%. FMP ETHUSD was $2,003.38, CoinGecko ETH/USD $2,003.46, and OKX ETH-USDT $2,004.33.

ETH MVRV is directly reported by CoinMetrics but is older than 24 hours. It is not relabeled as ETH MVRV-Z and does not support a standalone action call.

8. MSTR / Strategy mapping

The newest official 2026-11-09 8-K remains the latest Strategy holdings disclosure. It reports a purchase of 1,036 BTC from Nov 2–8 for $81.9M at $79,012 average. As of Nov 8 Strategy held 850,364 BTC at $64.16B aggregate cost and $75,456 average cost. It also sold 2,051,348 MSTR shares for $283.8M net; USD Reserve and USD Cash were $4.77B / $146.2M.

The NAV table adds the period's 2.051M issued shares to the prior disclosure-chain estimate, using about 455.163M estimated ADSO. This is an estimated point-in-time diluted denominator, not FMP basic shares or the quarterly EPS weighted-average denominator.

Estimated net common NAV roughly uses $6.75B debt, $13.76B preferred claims and $4.916B USD Reserve plus Cash. Preferred book value is not the same as liquidation claim. The estimate does not fully value software, taxes, accrued dividends or future financing.

The multiple columns are gross BTC NAV scenarios and ignore debt, preferred claims and USD assets. Only the estimated net-common-NAV column applies the rough adjustment. Trading below 1.0x gross BTC NAV is not a risk-free bitcoin substitute, and new issuance changes BTC per diluted share.

9. Sources and caveats

• Binance market data ↗: BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT live prices, 1d bars and USDⓈ-M derivatives.
• CoinMetrics Community API ↗: BTC/ETH MVRV, addresses and hash; realized cap, issuance and fees returned 403.
• btc-oak MVRV-Z ↗ and Explore21 own-node CSV ↗: transparent stale/proxy chain anchors.
• mempool.space ↗, FRED ↗, Yahoo DXY ↗, and CryptoETF.today ↗.
• Strategy 2026-11-09 8-K ↗ and FMP ↗: holdings, capital actions, MSTR quote and filing discovery.
• CoinGecko ↗ and OKX ↗: independent spot cross-checks.

This is a valuation and risk framework with explicit data boundaries, not personalized investment advice. PROXY, STALE_CRITICAL, REUSE_FALLBACK, DATA_MISSING and ACCESS_RESTRICTED are not disguised as complete signals.