BTC daily report · 2026-11-11

1. Data health and fallbacks

Data cutoff is approximately 2026-11-11 11:05 Beijing time. The report determines BTC regime before interpreting valuation. Returns, SMA200, slope, Mayer and RSI are calculated locally from the same Binance BTCUSDT completed-close series; live USDT, independent USD checks and completed daily closes remain distinct.

FMP was discovered under the exact mcp__financial_modeling_prep__ namespace and used first for applicable BTC/ETH USD checks, MSTR quote/history and SEC filing discovery. All applicable FMP read-only calls succeeded in this run. Yahoo is the framework-mandated DXY route; after HTTP 429 the report reuses the last verified value. Binance remains the required primary route for crypto live prices, bars and derivatives, while CoinMetrics is the on-chain source of record. Stale or hour-unverifiable weighted anchors remain neutral, and missing weights are not renormalized.

2. BTC regime, sub-zone and price

The completed close is above SMA200 while slope is below -5%, so the rule returns TRANSITION. The last five completed days were all TRANSITION, with closes of $75,844 → $75,868 → $74,851 → $75,368 → $73,796, satisfying persistence. The cycle remains in the 24–36 month late-cycle/bear window. MVRV is below 1.5 and price is above SMA200, so this is not Hot-Transition. The close is below the 1.05x SMA200 value line, making the sub-zone Cheap-Transition, which cannot add before trend confirmation.

3. BTC multi-anchor valuation

TRANSITION weights are fixed: MVRV-Z 25%, Mayer 15%, Production 10%, NUPL 15%, STH 15%, Halving 5%, Hash/active addresses 5%, Macro 5%, Derivatives 5%. MVRV ratio is an explanatory 0% row and cannot replace MVRV-Z.

Exact definitions: MVRV = market cap / realized cap; NUPL = 1 - 1/MVRV; MVRV-Z = (market cap - realized cap) / expanding historical standard deviation of market cap. CoinMetrics directly reports BTC MVRV at Nov 10 00:00 UTC, older than 24 hours at cutoff. btc-oak exposed no verifiable current dated point. Explore21 provides Nov 10 MVRV, MVRV-Z and STH realized price without an hourly timestamp, so they are labeled PROXY / FRESHNESS_UNVERIFIED and excluded from the effective action score.

There is no source-grade unified current production-cost point. The report retains a labeled range from an approximately $52.4K public energy floor to an approximately $75.5K 2026Q2 weighted pre-tax public-miner cash cost rather than fabricating a point estimate.

CoinMetrics Nov 10 active addresses were 702,844, with a 7D average of 671,286 and 30D average of 644,089. Hash was about 0.996 ZH/s, with 7D 0.950 versus 30D 1.026 ZH/s. mempool.space cross-checked about 0.957 ZH/s current and 0.984 ZH/s for the latest day. Improving activity and softer short-term hash leave the pair neutral.

Latest Binance USDⓈ-M funding was 0.0080%/8h, OI 100,209.02 BTC (about $7.39B), latest completed-day current-quarter annualized basis 5.56%, and account long/short 2.957. Long crowding and firmer funding keep derivatives at -0.5. The ETF fallback reports approximately +$20.0M U.S. spot BTC ETF flow for Nov 10 and remains background-only.

FRED: DFII10 2.66% and DGS10 4.88% on Nov 9; WALCL $6.748T and TGA $0.936T on Nov 4; RRP $0.000152T on Nov 10; simplified net liquidity about $5.812T. U.S. M2 was $23.414T in September; Global M2 is DATA_MISSING. Yahoo DXY returned 429, so the verified Nov 6 value 102.300 is reused and explicitly labeled REUSE_FALLBACK.

4. Total score and regime-modified action

If date-level/stale proxies were forced in, the mechanical score would be about +0.18. Neutralizing stale/date-only MVRV-Z, NUPL and STH leaves an effective composite of -0.06. Directly interpretable effective-weight coverage is about 45%; missing weight is not renormalized.

-0.06 maps to hold/watch. Cheap-Transition explicitly blocks an add before trend confirmation. Final action: hold/watch; do not treat the value line as an automatic buy, and wait for slope, repeated closes and fresh on-chain data to confirm together.

5. Three independent windows

Tactical: 1–4 weeks

Defensive / observation zone. Price is below the 1.05x SMA200 value line, RSI is 30.7 and 30-day return is -11.9%. Long/short crowding remains elevated near 2.96 even with moderate OI. Do not chase either direction; watch whether the dynamic SMA200 holds.

Cyclic: 1–6 months

Cautious. Five persistent TRANSITION days are not a bull trend, and the SMA200 slope remains -22.5%. An upgrade needs slope above -5%, repeated closes above the trend threshold, and fresh chain/flow confirmation.

Strategic: 6–24 months

Retain core exposure and stage new capital. MVRV-family ratios sit below their five-year means and are not frothy, but the late-cycle/bear window and falling trend do not support a one-shot heavy allocation.

6. Hard trigger lines

• Trend-add threshold: at least five completed closes above $84,170 (about 1.15x SMA200), SMA200 slope above -5%, with funding, OI and long/short not jointly overheated. Not met.
• Value-observation line: about $76,850 (1.05x SMA200). Price is below it, but Cheap-Transition explicitly does not auto-trigger an add.
• Warning line: about $73,191 (dynamic SMA200). A break with slope below -5% moves toward bear confirmation; if MVRV is also above 1.5, the state becomes Hot-Transition and cannot add.
• Bear red line: five consecutive closes below dynamic SMA200 with slope below -5%, switching to BEAR weights.
• Reduce-observation line: about $109,786 (Mayer 1.50), requiring simultaneous on-chain, ETF and derivatives overheating.
• Data red line: stale chain anchors plus renewed leverage heating and a break below SMA200 means shrink the risk budget first.

7. ETH snapshot

Binance live ETHUSDT was $2,060.76. The Nov 10 completed close was $2,053.21, with 1d/7d/30d close returns of -3.84% / -9.74% / -19.07%. FMP ETHUSD was $2,056.03, CoinGecko ETH/USD $2,056.78, and OKX ETH-USDT about $2,059.84. Yahoo returned HTTP 429; Binance dated closes plus FMP checks provide the fallback history context.

CoinMetrics directly reports ETH MVRV, but it is older than 24 hours at cutoff. It is not relabeled as ETH MVRV-Z and does not support a standalone ETH action call.

8. MSTR / Strategy mapping

The latest official 2026-11-09 8-K shows that Strategy purchased 1,036 BTC from Nov 2–8 for $81.9M at an average $79,012. As of Nov 8 it held 850,364 BTC at $64.16B aggregate cost and $75,456 average cost. During the same period it sold 2,051,348 MSTR shares for $283.8M net: $81.9M funded BTC, $188.3M repurchased 1,887,464 STRC shares, and $13.6M went to USD Cash. USD Reserve and USD Cash were $4.77B / $146.2M.

The NAV table adds the period's 2.051M new shares to the prior disclosure-chain estimate of about 453.112M ADSO, using about 455.163M estimated ADSO. This is an estimated point-in-time fully diluted denominator, not FMP basic shares or the quarterly EPS weighted-average denominator.

Estimated net common NAV roughly uses $6.75B debt, $13.76B preferred claims, and the newly disclosed $4.77B USD Reserve plus $146.2M USD Cash. Preferred book value is not the same as liquidation claim. The estimate also does not fully value software, taxes, accrued dividends or future financing.

The multiple columns are gross BTC NAV scenarios and ignore debt, preferred claims and USD assets. Only the estimated net-common-NAV column applies the rough adjustment. Trading below 1.0x gross BTC NAV is not a risk-free way to buy bitcoin, and new issuance keeps changing BTC per diluted share.

9. Sources and caveats

• Binance market data ↗: BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT live prices, 1d bars and USDⓈ-M derivatives.
• CoinMetrics Community API ↗: BTC/ETH MVRV, addresses and hash; realized cap, issuance and fees retain their 403 restriction status.
• Explore21 own-node CSV ↗: BTC MVRV, MVRV-Z, realized price, STH realized price and hash fallback.
• mempool.space ↗, FRED ↗, Yahoo DXY ↗, and CryptoETF.today ↗.
• Strategy 2026-11-09 8-K ↗ and FMP ↗: holdings, capital actions, MSTR quote and filing discovery.
• CoinGecko ↗ and OKX ↗: independent spot cross-checks.

This is a valuation and risk framework with explicit data boundaries, not personalized investment advice. PROXY, STALE_CRITICAL, FRESHNESS_UNVERIFIED, REUSE_FALLBACK, DATA_MISSING and ACCESS_RESTRICTED are not disguised as complete signals.