BTC daily report · 2026-11-05

1. Data health and fallbacks

Cutoff is about 10:20 Beijing time on 2026-11-05. The report determines regime before valuation. Returns, SMA, slope, Mayer and RSI are computed locally from the same Binance BTCUSDT completed daily-close series. Live USDT, independent USD checks, delayed Yahoo closes and completed daily bars remain distinct.

The exact mcp__financial_modeling_prep__ namespace was discovered and used first for applicable BTCUSD, ETHUSD, MSTR quotes and filing discovery. Binance remains the task-mandated primary route for crypto live prices, daily bars and derivatives; CoinMetrics remains the on-chain source of record. Missing, stale or hour-unverifiable weighted anchors are neutralized without renormalizing weights.

2. BTC regime, sub-zone and price

Price is above SMA200 while slope is below -5%, so the rule returns TRANSITION. The latest five completed closes, $77,582 → $78,354 → $76,816 → $77,454 → $80,504, all stayed above their own SMA200 while slope was negative, establishing 5-day persistence. The cycle remains in the 24–36 month late-cycle/bear window. Price is above 1.05×SMA200 and MVRV is below 1.5, so the sub-zone is Sideways-Transition, not Hot-Transition. One rebound day does not turn a falling trend into a bull regime.

3. BTC multi-anchor valuation

TRANSITION weights are fixed: MVRV-Z 25%, Mayer 15%, Production 10%, NUPL 15%, STH 15%, Halving 5%, Hash/active addresses 5%, Macro 5%, Derivatives 5%. MVRV ratio is an explanatory 0% row and cannot replace MVRV-Z.

Exact definitions: MVRV = market cap / realized cap; NUPL = 1 - 1/MVRV; MVRV-Z = (market cap - realized cap) / expanding historical standard deviation of market cap. CoinMetrics directly reports the Nov 3 00:00 UTC MVRV observation, which is older than 24 hours at cutoff. Explore21 provides date-level Nov 4 MVRV/MVRV-Z and Nov 3 STH realized price without hourly timestamps, so they remain PROXY / FRESHNESS_UNVERIFIED and stay out of the effective action score. btc-oak was checked first but remains stopped at 2026-07-22.

There is no source-grade unified current production-cost point. The report preserves a labeled range from an approximately $52.4K public energy floor to an approximately $75.5K 2026Q2 weighted pre-tax public-miner cash cost, rather than fabricating a point estimate.

CoinMetrics Nov 4 active addresses were 650,916, with a 7D average of 665,299 versus 30D 633,974. Hash was 1.055 ZH/s, with 7D 1.033 versus 30D 1.039 ZH/s; mempool.space independently showed about 1.035 ZH/s at cutoff. Address trend improved while hash was broadly stable, leaving the pair neutral.

Latest Binance USDⓈ-M funding was 0.0024%/8h, OI 96,651.69 BTC (about $7.80B), latest completed-day current-quarter annualized basis 5.83%, and account long/short 1.391. Crowding eased sharply from yesterday, moving derivatives from -0.5 to neutral, but this is not a standalone buy trigger. The ETF fallback reports about $15.2M Nov 4 BTC inflow, still partial and background-only.

FRED: DFII10 2.65% and DGS10 4.95% on Nov 3; WALCL $6.746T and TGA $1.000T on Oct 28; RRP $0.0002B on Nov 4; simplified net liquidity about $5.746T. U.S. M2 was $23.414T in September; this is U.S. M2, while Global M2 is DATA_MISSING. Yahoo DXY's latest Nov 5 record was about 101.30, potentially intraday and used only as macro context.

4. Total score and regime-modified action

If date-level/stale proxies were forced in, the mechanical score would be about +0.16. Neutralizing MVRV-Z, NUPL and STH for freshness leaves an effective composite of -0.04. Directly interpretable effective-weight coverage is about 45%; missing weight is not renormalized.

-0.04 maps to hold/watch. The rebound, RSI repair and leverage cooling improve tactical risk, but the -24.3% SMA slope, late-cycle/bear window and stale critical chain anchors prevent an upgrade to add. Final action: hold/watch; do not chase the rebound, and wait for trend plus fresh on-chain confirmation.

5. Three independent windows

Tactical: 1–4 weeks

Neutral-defensive. Price rebounded quickly from the value-observation line, RSI recovered to 38.3 and derivatives de-crowded, but 7-day and 30-day returns remain negative. Whether a retest holds 1.05×SMA200 matters more than one strong day.

Cyclic: 1–6 months

Cautious. Five persistent TRANSITION days are not a new bull market; the SMA200 slope remains -24.3%. An upgrade needs slope above -5%, repeated closes over the trend threshold, and confirmation from fresh chain data and flows.

Strategic: 6–24 months

Retain core exposure and stage new capital. MVRV-family ratios are below their five-year means and not frothy, but the late-cycle/bear window and falling trend do not support a one-shot heavy allocation.

6. Hard trigger lines

• Trend-add threshold: at least five completed closes above $84,200 (about 1.15×SMA200), SMA200 slope above -5%, with funding, OI and long/short not jointly overheated. Not met.
• Value-observation line: about $76,893 (1.05×SMA200). A retest must stabilize and be confirmed by fresh MVRV-Z/MVRV and flows; price alone does not trigger a buy.
• Warning line: about $73,231 (dynamic SMA200). A break with slope below -5% trends toward bear confirmation; if MVRV is also above 1.5, the state becomes Hot-Transition and cannot add.
• Bear red line: five consecutive closes below dynamic SMA200 with slope below -5%, switching to BEAR weights.
• Reduce-observation line: about $109,847 (Mayer 1.50), requiring simultaneous on-chain, ETF and derivatives overheating.
• Data red line: stale chain anchors plus renewed leverage heating and a break below SMA200 means shrink the risk budget first.

7. ETH snapshot

Binance live ETHUSDT was $2,430.01. The Nov 4 completed close was $2,424.61; 1d/7d/30d close returns were +6.59% / +2.75% / -10.53%. FMP live ETHUSD was $2,428.04, CoinGecko $2,429.17 and OKX ETH-USDT $2,430.19. Yahoo's delayed Nov 3 ETH-USD close was $2,272.73 and is never labeled live spot.

CoinMetrics directly reports ETH MVRV, but it is older than 24 hours. It is not relabeled as ETH MVRV-Z and does not generate an independent trade action.

8. MSTR / Strategy mapping

Strategy's latest 2026-11-02 8-K reported an 811 BTC purchase for $65.5M at $80,846 average. Holdings reached 849,327 BTC as of Nov 1, at $64.08B aggregate cost and $75,451 average cost. The company sold 1,178,552 MSTR shares for $164.0M net proceeds, using $65.5M for BTC and $98.5M for USD Cash; it repurchased 2,092,035 STRC shares for $208.2M. Ending USD Reserve / USD Cash were $4.79B / $132.7M.

The latest point-in-time denominator was 451.933M ADSO before the week's issuance. The table uses estimated 453.112M ADSO = 451.933M + 1.179M newly sold shares; it does not substitute 10-Q weighted-average diluted shares or FMP's implied basic-share field for the NAV denominator.

The rough net-common NAV uses about $6.75B debt, about $13.55B preferred claims after the latest STRC repurchase, and $4.923B USD Reserve plus Cash. It is not a complete valuation of software, taxes, accrued preferred dividends or future financing.

The multiple columns use gross BTC NAV and ignore debt, preferred claims, USD assets, software value, taxes and future dilution. Only the estimated net-common NAV column applies the rough senior-claim adjustment. Trading below 1x gross BTC NAV is not a risk-free way to buy BTC.

9. Sources and caveats

• Binance market data ↗: BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT quotes, 1d bars and USDⓈ-M derivatives.
• CoinMetrics Community API ↗: MVRV, addresses and hash; restricted metrics retain their 403 status.
• Explore21 data ↗: date-level own-node MVRV, MVRV-Z, Mayer and STH realized-price proxies.
• btc-oak MVRV-Z ↗: designated transparent fallback, still stopped at July 22 and not used as current.
• mempool.space ↗, FRED ↗, CryptoETF.today ↗, Strategy Nov 2 8-K ↗, FMP ↗, Yahoo Finance ↗ and CoinGecko ↗.

This is a valuation and risk framework with explicit data boundaries, not personalized investment advice. PROXY, STALE_CRITICAL, FRESHNESS_UNVERIFIED, DATA_MISSING and ACCESS_RESTRICTED are not disguised as complete signals.