BTC daily report · 2026-11-04

1. Data health and fallbacks

Cutoff: approximately 10:22 Beijing time on 2026-11-04. The report determines regime before valuation. Returns, SMA, slope, Mayer and RSI are calculated locally from the same completed Binance BTCUSDT daily-close series. Live USDT quotes, independent USD checks and completed closes are kept distinct.

FMP was discovered through the exact mcp__financial_modeling_prep__ namespace and used first for applicable BTCUSD, ETHUSD, MSTR quote/history and filing discovery. Binance remains the mandated primary for crypto spot, bars and derivatives; CoinMetrics remains the on-chain source of record. Missing, stale or timestamp-unverified weighted anchors are neutralized and weights are not renormalized.

2. BTC regime, sub-zone and price

Price remains above SMA200 while the slope is below -5%, so the rule returns TRANSITION. The five latest completed closes—$77,369 → $77,582 → $78,354 → $76,816 → $77,454—all remain above their contemporaneous SMA200 while slope is negative, satisfying five-day persistence. The phase is still the framework's 24–36 month late-cycle/bear window. The completed close is slightly above 1.05×SMA200 while the live price is testing that observation line. MVRV is below 1.5 and price is above SMA200, so the close-based sub-zone is Sideways-Transition, not Hot-Transition. An intraday touch is observation, not an automatic add.

3. BTC multi-anchor valuation

TRANSITION weights are fixed: MVRV-Z 25%, Mayer 15%, production 10%, NUPL 15%, STH 15%, halving 5%, hash/active addresses 5%, macro 5%, derivatives 5%. MVRV ratio is explanatory at 0% and never substitutes for MVRV-Z.

Exact definitions: MVRV = market cap / realized cap; NUPL = 1 - 1/MVRV; MVRV-Z = (market cap - realized cap) / expanding historical standard deviation of market cap. CoinMetrics directly reports MVRV at 2026-11-02 00:00 UTC, already over 24 hours old at cutoff. Explore21 publishes date-level own-node MVRV, MVRV-Z and STH realized price through Nov 3, but no hourly timestamp. They remain PROXY / FRESHNESS_UNVERIFIED and are excluded from the effective action score. btc-oak was checked first as the transparent fallback and still ended on 2026-07-22.

Production cost has no source-grade unified point. The report retains a public energy-floor reference near $52.4K and a 2026Q2 listed-miner weighted pretax cash-cost reference near $75.5K as a range, not a fabricated estimate.

CoinMetrics Nov 3 active addresses were 683,862, with a 7D average of 660,627 versus 30D 634,305. Hash was 1.033 ZH/s, with 7D 1.026 versus 30D 1.042 ZH/s; mempool.space independently showed about 1.018 ZH/s at cutoff. Usage improved while hash remained broadly stable, leaving the combined anchor neutral.

Binance USDⓈ-M latest funding was 0.0100%/8h, OI 98,953.91 BTC (about $7.61B), latest available quarterly annualized basis 5.86%, and account long/short 2.386. Crowded long accounts keep derivatives at -0.5. The ETF fallback reports about $21.9M of Nov 3 BTC inflow, still marked partial and is background only.

FRED: DFII10 2.62% and DGS10 4.91% on Nov 2; WALCL $6.746T and TGA $1.000T on Oct 28; RRP $0.0004T on Nov 3; simplified net liquidity is about $5.745T. U.S. M2 is $23.414T for September; this is U.S. M2, while Global M2 is DATA_MISSING. Yahoo DXY daily history read successfully with a latest Nov 4 record near 101.46; the same-day bar may still be partial and is macro context only.

4. Total score and regime-modified action

If date-only/stale proxies were forced into the model, the mechanical score would be about +0.14. Neutralizing MVRV-Z, NUPL and STH for freshness leaves an effective score of -0.06. Directly interpretable effective-weight coverage is about 45%; missing weight is not renormalized.

-0.06 maps to hold/watch. RSI and Mayer now show a better tactical location, but a Sideways-Transition intraday test of the value line is not a confirmed add. The -24.6% SMA slope, stale critical chain anchors and leverage crowding override a mechanical small-add impulse. Final action: hold/watch; no automatic add at the value band.

5. Three independent windows

Tactical, 1–4 weeks

Defensive but at an observation zone. RSI 29.1 and the live price near 1.05×SMA200 improve asymmetry, while long/short 2.39 and 0.0100% funding show leverage has not cleared. A small tranche requires stabilization plus fresher chain and calmer derivatives.

Cyclic, 1–6 months

Cautious. Five persistent TRANSITION days are not a new bull regime. The SMA200 slope remains -24.6%; an upgrade requires slope above -5%, sustained closes above the recent recovery threshold and confirmation from fresh on-chain and flows.

Strategic, 6–24 months

Retain a core position and stage new capital. MVRV-type ratios remain below five-year means and outside bubble territory, but late-cycle/bear timing and the negative trend slope argue against a single heavy allocation.

6. Hard trigger lines

• Trend-add threshold: at least five completed closes above $84,500, SMA200 slope above -5%, and no simultaneous overheating in funding, OI and long/short. Not met.
• Value observation line: about $76,867 (1.05×SMA200). The completed close is slightly above it while the live price is testing it, but fresh MVRV-Z/MVRV, stabilization and flow confirmation are required; touching it is not an automatic buy.
• Warning line: about $73,207 (dynamic SMA200). A break with slope below -5% moves toward bear confirmation; MVRV above 1.5 there would be Hot-Transition and prohibit adds.
• Bear red line: five completed closes below dynamic SMA200 with slope below -5%, switching to BEAR weights.
• Reduce observation line: about $109,811 (Mayer 1.50), requiring simultaneous chain, ETF and derivatives overheating.
• Data red line: stale chain anchors plus rising leverage and a break below SMA200 means reducing risk budget first.

7. ETH snapshot

Binance live ETHUSDT was $2,262.65. The Nov 3 completed close was $2,274.77; 1d/7d/30d close returns were +0.95% / -3.22% / -16.58%. FMP live ETHUSD was $2,258.93, CoinGecko $2,259.56 and OKX ETH-USDT $2,262.17.

ETH MVRV is directly reported by CoinMetrics but older than 24 hours. It is not presented as ETH MVRV-Z and does not independently establish an ETH trade.

8. MSTR / Strategy mapping

Strategy's newest 2026-11-02 8-K reports a purchase of 811 BTC for $65.5M at an average $80,846, lifting holdings to 849,327 BTC at aggregate cost $64.08B and average cost $75,451 as of Nov 1. It sold 1,178,552 MSTR shares for $164.0M net; $65.5M funded BTC and $98.5M went to USD Cash. It repurchased 2,092,035 STRC shares for $208.2M. USD Reserve and USD Cash ended at $4.79B / $132.7M.

The latest point-in-time diluted denominator was 451.933M ADSO before this week's common issuance. The table uses an explicitly estimated 453.112M ADSO = 451.933M + 1.179M newly sold shares; it does not pretend the 10-Q weighted-average diluted share count is a point-in-time NAV denominator.

Net common NAV roughly uses $6.75B debt, $13.55B preferred claims after the latest STRC repurchase, and $4.923B USD Reserve plus Cash. It is not a full valuation of software, taxes, accrued dividends or future financing.

The multiple columns are gross BTC NAV scenarios and ignore debt, preferred claims, dollar assets, software value, tax and future dilution. Only the net common NAV column applies the rough senior-claim adjustment. A sub-1x gross multiple is not a risk-free Bitcoin discount.

9. Sources and caveats

• Binance market data ↗: BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT quotes, 1d bars and USDⓈ-M derivatives.
• CoinMetrics Community API ↗: MVRV, addresses and hash; restricted metrics retain 403 status.
• Explore21 data ↗: date-level own-node MVRV, MVRV-Z, Mayer and STH realized price proxies.
• btc-oak MVRV-Z ↗: mandated transparent fallback, still stale at July 22 and not used as current.
• mempool.space ↗, FRED ↗, CryptoETF.today ↗, Strategy Nov 2 8-K ↗, FMP ↗ and CoinGecko ↗.

This is a valuation and risk framework under explicit data limits, not personalized investment advice. PROXY, STALE_CRITICAL, FRESHNESS_UNVERIFIED, DATA_MISSING and ACCESS_RESTRICTED are not disguised as complete signals.