BTC daily report · 2026-11-06

1. Data health and fallbacks

Cutoff is about 10:17 Beijing time on 2026-11-06. Regime is determined before valuation. Returns, SMA, slope, Mayer and RSI are computed locally from the same segmented Binance BTCUSDT completed daily-close series. Live USDT, independent USD checks, delayed closes and completed daily bars remain distinct.

Missing, stale or hour-unverifiable weighted anchors are neutralized. Weights are not renormalized.

2. BTC regime, sub-zone and price

Price remains above SMA200 while slope is below -5%, so the rule returns TRANSITION. The latest five completed closes, $78,354 → $76,816 → $77,454 → $80,504 → $76,088, all remained above their own SMA200 while the slope stayed negative, establishing 5-day persistence. The cycle is still in the 24–36 month late-cycle/bear window. The completed close and live price are now below 1.05x SMA200, while MVRV is below 1.5, so the sub-zone is Cheap-Transition. Under the framework, Cheap-Transition cannot add until trend confirmation.

3. BTC multi-anchor valuation

TRANSITION weights are fixed: MVRV-Z 25%, Mayer 15%, Production 10%, NUPL 15%, STH 15%, Halving 5%, Hash/active addresses 5%, Macro 5%, Derivatives 5%. MVRV ratio is an explanatory 0% row and cannot replace MVRV-Z.

Exact definitions: MVRV = market cap / realized cap; NUPL = 1 - 1/MVRV; MVRV-Z = (market cap - realized cap) / expanding historical standard deviation of market cap. CoinMetrics directly reports BTC MVRV at 2026-11-05 00:00 UTC, which is older than 24 hours at cutoff. Explore21 provides Nov 5 MVRV, MVRV-Z and STH realized price without an hourly timestamp, so they remain PROXY / FRESHNESS_UNVERIFIED and stay out of the effective action score. btc-oak was checked first but is still updated only through July 22.

There is no source-grade unified current production-cost point. The report retains a labeled range from an approximately $52.4K public energy floor to an approximately $75.5K 2026Q2 weighted pre-tax public-miner cash cost rather than fabricating a point estimate.

CoinMetrics Nov 5 active addresses were 730,234, with a 7D average of 677,526 versus 30D 637,088. Hash was about 0.974 ZH/s, with 7D 1.034 versus 30D 1.037 ZH/s; mempool.space independently showed about 1.030 ZH/s current and 0.955 ZH/s for the latest day. Addresses improved while hash stayed roughly flat, leaving the pair neutral.

Latest Binance USDⓈ-M funding was 0.0100%/8h, OI 94,580.76 BTC (about $7.20B), latest completed-day current-quarter annualized basis 5.73%, and account long/short 2.973. OI eased, but long crowding rebuilt sharply, so derivatives score -0.5. The ETF fallback reports about -$3.0M on Nov 5 and remains background-only.

FRED: DFII10 2.64% and DGS10 4.90% on Nov 4; WALCL $6.748T and TGA $0.957T on Nov 4; RRP $0.000125T on Nov 5; simplified net liquidity about $5.791T. U.S. M2 was $23.414T in September. This is U.S. M2; Global M2 is DATA_MISSING. Yahoo DXY remained unavailable after HTTP 429 and one alternate-host retry, so the incomplete macro anchor is held neutral.

4. Total score and regime-modified action

If date-level/stale proxies were forced in, the mechanical score would be about +0.20. Neutralizing MVRV-Z, NUPL, STH and the incomplete macro composite leaves an effective composite of -0.04. Directly interpretable effective-weight coverage is about 40%; missing weight is not renormalized.

-0.04 maps to hold/watch. Cheap-Transition also blocks an add before trend confirmation. Final action: hold/watch; do not treat the value line as an automatic buy, and wait for trend plus fresh on-chain confirmation.

5. Three independent windows

Tactical: 1–4 weeks

Defensive / observation zone. Price is below the 1.05x SMA200 value line, RSI is 34.4 and 30-day return is -11.1%. Long/short crowding rose despite lower OI. Do not chase either direction; watch whether the dynamic SMA200 holds.

Cyclic: 1–6 months

Cautious. Five persistent TRANSITION days are not a bull trend, and the SMA200 slope remains -23.9%. An upgrade needs slope above -5%, repeated closes above the trend threshold, and fresh chain/flow confirmation.

Strategic: 6–24 months

Retain core exposure and stage new capital. MVRV-family ratios sit below their five-year means and are not frothy, but the late-cycle/bear window and falling trend do not support a one-shot heavy allocation.

6. Hard trigger lines

• Trend-add threshold: at least five completed closes above $84,229 (about 1.15x SMA200), SMA200 slope above -5%, with funding, OI and long/short not jointly overheated. Not met.
• Value-observation line: about $76,905 (1.05x SMA200). Price is below it, but Cheap-Transition explicitly does not auto-trigger an add.
• Warning line: about $73,243 (dynamic SMA200). A break with slope below -5% moves toward bear confirmation; if MVRV is also above 1.5, the state becomes Hot-Transition and cannot add.
• Bear red line: five consecutive closes below dynamic SMA200 with slope below -5%, switching to BEAR weights.
• Reduce-observation line: about $109,864 (Mayer 1.50), requiring simultaneous on-chain, ETF and derivatives overheating.
• Data red line: stale chain anchors plus renewed leverage heating and a break below SMA200 means shrink the risk budget first.

7. ETH snapshot

Binance live ETHUSDT was $2,240.70. The Nov 5 completed close was $2,238.01; 1d/7d/30d close returns were -7.70% / -0.67% / -17.03%. OKX ETH-USDT was $2,240.75, CoinGecko ETH/USD $2,237.86 and Alpaca USD quote/mid about $2,233.95. Yahoo history was unavailable after HTTP 429 and one retry.

CoinMetrics directly reports ETH MVRV, but it is older than 24 hours. It is not relabeled as ETH MVRV-Z and does not generate an independent trade action.

8. MSTR / Strategy mapping

Strategy's latest 2026-11-02 8-K reported an 811 BTC purchase for $65.5M at $80,846 average. Holdings reached 849,327 BTC as of Nov 1, at $64.08B aggregate cost and $75,451 average cost. The company sold 1,178,552 MSTR shares for $164.0M net proceeds, used $208.2M to repurchase 2,092,035 STRC shares, and ended with $4.79B USD Reserve / $132.7M USD Cash. SEC submissions show no later 8-K or 10-Q through the cutoff.

The last point-in-time denominator was 451.933M ADSO before the week's issuance. This report uses estimated 453.112M ADSO = 451.933M + 1.179M newly sold shares. It does not substitute 10-Q weighted-average diluted shares for a point-in-time NAV denominator.

The rough net-common NAV uses about $6.75B debt, about $13.55B preferred claims after the latest STRC repurchase, and $4.923B USD Reserve plus Cash. It is not a complete valuation of software, taxes, accrued preferred dividends or future financing.

The multiple columns use gross BTC NAV and ignore debt, preferred claims, USD assets, software value, taxes and future dilution. Only the estimated net-common NAV column applies the rough senior-claim adjustment. Trading below 1x gross BTC NAV is not a risk-free way to buy BTC.

9. Sources and caveats

• Binance market data ↗: BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT quotes, segmented 1d bars and USDⓈ-M derivatives.
• CoinMetrics Community API ↗: MVRV, addresses and hash; restricted metrics retain their 403 status.
• Explore21 data ↗: date-level own-node MVRV, MVRV-Z and STH realized-price proxies.
• btc-oak MVRV-Z ↗: designated transparent fallback, still stopped at July 22 and not used as current.
• mempool.space ↗, FRED ↗, CryptoETF.today ↗, Strategy Nov 2 8-K ↗, Alpaca ↗, FMP ↗, Yahoo Finance ↗, OKX ↗ and CoinGecko ↗.

This is a valuation and risk framework with explicit data boundaries, not personalized investment advice. PROXY, STALE_CRITICAL, FRESHNESS_UNVERIFIED, DATA_MISSING, ACCESS_RESTRICTED, FMP_QUOTA_LIMIT and YAHOO_RATE_LIMIT are not disguised as complete signals.