Credit risk daily report · 2026-10-30

Beijing time: 2026-10-30 11:54. Market prices and volume run through the completed October 29 US session. FRED T10YIE is dated October 29, while HY OAS and VIXCLS are dated October 28. The public overall level is DATA_INCOMPLETE and the pre-planned cash-bullet status is watch. This is risk monitoring, not investment advice, and it does not execute trades.

1. Exactly five credit-event indicators

HY OAS is the highest-weight indicator and is commonly monitored as a one-to-three-month credit-event lead signal. The direct read supplied a current source date, but source permissions do not allow this page to republish the raw value. Its public state therefore remains DATA_WITHHELD; it is not classified green and the public aggregate is not called all green.

2. What changed / what matters

• HY OAS first: the latest FRED observation date advanced to October 28. The raw value remains withheld and the public aggregate remains incomplete.
• KRE closed at $72.86, up 0.62% across five sessions with a 0.60× volume ratio; none of its price, drawdown or volume add-ons fired.
• Yahoo query1 supplied every required daily series; query2, FMP historical fallback and Stooq were not needed.
• VIX closed at 17.20 in the latest completed session, below 25. FRED VIXCLS is 16.91 on the prior date, so it is not treated as a simultaneous comparison.
• T10YIE is 2.35%; the six banks, KBE and cross-asset sub-signals are all inactive.

3. Regional banks and volatility

KRE's continuous adjusted close is $72.86, up 1.04% for one day and 0.62% across five sessions. Latest volume is 9.293 million shares, 0.60 times the preceding 30-session mean. There are 127 valid observations, the denominator is nonzero, and the largest 30-session adjusted-close move is 2.53%, with no split event or split-like discontinuity. KRE is green. The FMP quote and independent finance lookup both report $72.86, with no threshold-critical discrepancy above 1%; the independent lookup has the fresher timestamp but the closing values match.

Yahoo ^VIX closed at 17.20 on October 29, the latest completed session, below the yellow threshold of 25. Official FRED VIXCLS is 16.91 on October 28 and is asynchronous context only; differing observation dates are not compared as simultaneous values. VIX is green, but equity implied volatility does not replace a credit-spread signal.

4. HY OAS and inflation expectations

ICE BofA US High Yield OAS / FRED ↗ is the highest-priority signal. The independent direct CSV read supplied a latest observation dated October 28, but current source permissions do not allow this page to redistribute the raw index value. The public field therefore remains DATA_WITHHELD, and the public aggregate is not completed from it. The framework retains its thresholds: above 5% yellow, above 7% red and above 10% deep red, with HY OAS yellow alone escalating the overall framework to red.

FRED T10YIE is 2.35% on October 29, inside the green band. Above 2.70% flags inflation expectations starting to unanchor and above 3.00% is red. Below 2.20% flags rising recession expectations; below 2.00% remains a warning but is labeled a recession/easing mix because Fed-cut optionality may support risk assets. DGS10 and DFII10 are both dated October 28 and are supplementary checks, not substitutes for T10YIE.

5. Large-bank and cross-asset proxy

Signal 1 is inactive: no bank combines a one-day decline greater than 5% with volume above 2×. Signal 2 is inactive: KBE gained 0.96% across five sessions rather than falling more than 10%. Signal 3 is inactive: LQD lost 0.06% while SPY gained 0.71%, a -0.76-point difference below +3 points. The proxy is green; it is not an audit of bank solvency or asset quality.

6. Overall algorithm and deploy implication

Any deep-red indicator or at least three red indicators makes the aggregate deep red. One or two red indicators, or at least three yellow with none red, makes it red. One or two yellow makes it yellow. Green requires all five fields to be publicly verified green. HY OAS yellow overrides the base algorithm and makes the aggregate red.

Four publicly verifiable indicators are green, but HY OAS is DATA_WITHHELD. The public overall state is therefore DATA_INCOMPLETE and the deploy status is watch: prepare and maintain the list only, with no automatic trade. Green means no deploy trigger; yellow means prepare/watchlist only; red means a human review of the existing staged cash-bullet plan; deep red means a crisis-playbook review.

7. Data health and method boundaries

Per-item status: KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, KBE, LQD and SPY each use Yahoo query1 adjusted daily bars dated October 29, 2026 (fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no); FMP quotes and the independent finance lookup both succeeded, with every threshold-critical discrepancy <1%. ^VIX uses Yahoo query1 at 17.20 on October 29 (fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no); FRED VIXCLS is 16.91 on October 28 (fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no) and only an asynchronous cross-check. BAMLH0A0HYM2 uses direct FRED CSV dated October 28 (fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, public raw=DATA_WITHHELD). T10YIE uses direct FRED CSV dated October 29 (fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no). Blocked sources: none. Unused fallbacks: Yahoo query2, FMP history and Stooq.

The exact FMP MCP namespace was discovered and called first. Quotes were obtained for all ten listed securities and the ^VIX index. One-day and five-day returns are computed from consecutive observations in one Yahoo adjusted-close series. Volume ratios divide latest volume by the preceding 30-session mean and do not use vendor open-to-close changePercent. Every listed-security series has 127 valid observations, nonzero denominators, and no 30-session adjusted-close jump above 5.61%; no split event or split-like anomaly was detected. Sources: FMP Market Data ↗, Yahoo Finance Chart ↗, FRED HY OAS ↗, FRED T10YIE ↗, and FRED VIXCLS ↗. No personal accounts or positions are included. This report is not investment advice.