Credit risk daily report · 2026-10-29

Beijing time: 2026-10-29 19:35. Market prices and volume run through the completed October 28 US session. FRED T10YIE is dated October 28, while HY OAS and VIXCLS are dated October 27. The public overall level is DATA_INCOMPLETE and the pre-planned cash-bullet status is watch. This is risk monitoring, not investment advice, and it does not execute trades.

1. Exactly five credit-event indicators

HY OAS is the highest-weight indicator and is commonly monitored as a one-to-three-month credit-event lead signal. The direct read supplied a current source date, but source permissions do not allow this page to republish the raw value. Its public state therefore remains DATA_WITHHELD; it is not classified green and the public aggregate is not called all green.

2. What changed / what matters

• HY OAS first: the latest FRED observation date advanced to October 27. The raw value remains withheld and the public aggregate remains incomplete.
• KRE closed at $72.11, up 2.11% across five sessions with a 0.78× volume ratio; none of its price, drawdown or volume add-ons fired.
• Both Yahoo chart hosts failed with curl 56 transport errors; the bounded FMP adjusted-history fallback was used without waiting on challenge pages or proceeding to Stooq.
• Official VIXCLS is 17.52 on October 27 and below 25. The October 28 FMP ^VIX bar is not treated as a simultaneous comparison.
• T10YIE is 2.38%; the six banks, KBE and cross-asset sub-signals are all inactive.

3. Regional banks and volatility

KRE's continuous adjusted close is $72.11, down 0.65% for one day and up 2.11% across five sessions. Latest volume is 12.340 million shares, 0.78 times the preceding 30-session mean. There are 41 valid observations, the denominator is nonzero, and the largest 30-session adjusted-close move is 2.53%, with no split-like discontinuity. KRE is green. The FMP quote and independent finance lookup both report the same-session $72.11 close, with no threshold-critical discrepancy above 1%.

Yahoo query1 and query2 both failed to complete chart transport, so VIX uses the official FRED VIXCLS fallback: 17.52 on October 27, one trading day behind the latest completed session and not beyond the stale gate. FMP ^VIX history shows 16.91 on October 28 as asynchronous context only; the differing dates are not compared as simultaneous observations. VIX is green, but equity implied volatility does not replace a credit-spread signal.

4. HY OAS and inflation expectations

ICE BofA US High Yield OAS / FRED ↗ is the highest-priority signal. The independent direct CSV read succeeded and supplied a latest observation dated October 27, but current source permissions do not allow this page to redistribute the raw index value. The public field therefore remains DATA_WITHHELD, and the public aggregate is not completed from it. The framework retains its thresholds: above 5% yellow, above 7% red and above 10% deep red, with HY OAS yellow alone escalating the overall framework to red.

FRED T10YIE is 2.38% on October 28, inside the green band. Above 2.70% flags inflation expectations starting to unanchor and above 3.00% is red. Below 2.20% flags rising recession expectations; below 2.00% remains a warning but is labeled a recession/easing mix because Fed-cut optionality may support risk assets. DGS10 and DFII10 are both dated October 27 and are supplementary checks, not substitutes for T10YIE.

5. Large-bank and cross-asset proxy

Signal 1 is inactive: no bank combines a one-day decline greater than 5% with volume above 2×. Signal 2 is inactive: KBE gained 2.08% across five sessions rather than falling more than 10%. Signal 3 is inactive: LQD gained 0.83% while SPY lost 0.10%, a +0.93-point difference below +3 points. The proxy is green; it is not an audit of bank solvency or asset quality.

6. Overall algorithm and deploy implication

Any deep-red indicator or at least three red indicators makes the aggregate deep red. One or two red indicators, or at least three yellow with none red, makes it red. One or two yellow makes it yellow. Green requires all five fields to be publicly verified green. HY OAS yellow overrides the base algorithm and makes the aggregate red.

Four publicly verifiable indicators are green, but HY OAS is DATA_WITHHELD. The public overall state is therefore DATA_INCOMPLETE and the deploy status is watch: prepare and maintain the list only, with no automatic trade. Green means no deploy trigger; yellow means prepare/watchlist only; red means a human review of the existing staged cash-bullet plan; deep red means a crisis-playbook review.

7. Data health and method boundaries

Per-item status: KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, KBE, LQD and SPY each use FMP dividend-adjusted daily bars dated October 28, 2026 (fallback=yes, missing=no, stale=no), cross-checked against FMP quotes and an independent finance lookup with every threshold-critical discrepancy <1%. Preferred Yahoo ^VIX failed, so official FRED VIXCLS dated October 27 is the fallback (fallback=yes, missing=no, stale=no); the FMP ^VIX bar dated October 28 is asynchronous context only. BAMLH0A0HYM2 uses direct FRED CSV dated October 27 (fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no, public raw=DATA_WITHHELD). T10YIE uses direct FRED CSV dated October 28 (fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no). VIXCLS uses direct FRED CSV dated October 27 (fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no). Blocked sources: Yahoo query1 and query2 returned curl 56 for every required chart request. Stooq was not used because the bounded FMP fallback succeeded.

The exact FMP MCP namespace was discovered and called first. All ten quotes were obtained; KRE, GS and MS had an initial Session not found error and succeeded on their sole retry. One-day and five-day returns are computed from consecutive observations in one FMP adjusted-close series. Volume ratios divide latest volume by the preceding 30-session mean and do not use vendor open-to-close changePercent. Every listed series has 41 valid observations, nonzero denominators, and no 30-session adjusted-close jump above 5.61%, so no split-like anomaly was detected. Sources: FMP Market Data ↗, Yahoo Finance Chart ↗, FRED HY OAS ↗, FRED T10YIE ↗, and FRED VIXCLS ↗. No personal accounts or positions are included. This report is not investment advice.