Credit risk daily report · 2026-11-01

Beijing time: 2026-11-01 15:52 CST. Market prices and volume run through the completed October 30 US session. Direct FRED CSV retrieval for BAMLH0A0HYM2, T10YIE and VIXCLS timed out after one bounded retry per series, so no current FRED observation is asserted. The public overall level is DATA_INCOMPLETE and the pre-planned cash-bullet status is watch. This is risk monitoring, not investment advice, and it does not execute trades.

1. Exactly five credit-event indicators

HY OAS remains the highest-weight indicator and is commonly monitored as a one-to-three-month credit-event lead signal. Because its current dated observation was not obtained, it is not classified green. Source permissions also prevent republishing its raw value if obtained. Missing HY OAS and T10YIE reduce confidence and prevent an all-green aggregate.

2. What changed / what matters

• HY OAS first: the current direct FRED CSV read timed out after one retry; the field is DATA_MISSING / DATA_WITHHELD and cannot support an all-green conclusion.
• KRE closed at $72.01, down 0.62% across five sessions with a 1.16× volume ratio; none of its price, drawdown or volume add-ons fired.
• VIX rose 12.91% in the session to 19.42 but remains below the yellow threshold of 25; the FRED VIXCLS cross-check is unavailable today.
• No large-bank sub-signal fired; LQD outperformed SPY by 0.96 percentage points across five sessions, below the +3-point trigger.
• T10YIE is DATA_MISSING because the source-of-record read timed out; yesterday's successful observation is not reused to classify today's report.

3. Regional banks and volatility

KRE's continuous adjusted close is $72.01, down 1.17% for one day and 0.62% across five sessions. Latest volume is 17.707 million shares, 1.16 times the preceding 30-session mean. The series has 152 valid observations, a nonzero denominator and no split-like adjusted-price jump. KRE is green. FMP and the independent finance lookup both report $72.01; the independent lookup is fresher, and no threshold-critical price discrepancy exceeds 1%.

Yahoo ^VIX closed at 19.42 on October 30, the latest completed session. It remains below 25 and is green. The official FRED VIXCLS direct read timed out, so the report does not claim a same-day official cross-check or compare asynchronous observations. Equity implied volatility does not replace the missing credit-spread signal.

4. HY OAS and inflation expectations

ICE BofA US High Yield OAS / FRED ↗ is the highest-priority signal. The direct CSV source timed out on both the initial bounded call and its sole retry. The current observation date and value are therefore unavailable. The public field is DATA_MISSING / DATA_WITHHELD, and the framework is not completed from it. Thresholds remain: above 5% yellow, above 7% red and above 10% deep red; HY OAS yellow alone would escalate the overall framework to red.

FRED T10YIE ↗ also timed out after one retry, so it is DATA_MISSING and unclassified. The framework treats 2.20%–2.70% inclusive as green, above 2.70% as upper yellow, above 3.00% as red, and below 2.20% as lower yellow. Below 2.00% remains a recession/easing-mix warning because Fed-cut optionality may support risk assets. No stale prior value is substituted for today's source-of-record read.

5. Large-bank and cross-asset proxy

Signal 1 is inactive: no bank combines a one-day decline greater than 5% with volume above 2×. Signal 2 is inactive: KBE fell 0.26% across five sessions, far short of a decline greater than 10%. Signal 3 is inactive: LQD gained 0.40% while SPY fell 0.56%, a +0.96-point difference below +3 points. The proxy is green; it is not an audit of bank solvency or asset quality.

6. Overall algorithm and deploy implication

Any deep-red indicator or at least three red indicators makes the aggregate deep red. One or two red indicators, or at least three yellow with none red, makes it red. One or two yellow makes it yellow. All five verified green is required for green. HY OAS yellow overrides the base algorithm and makes the aggregate red.

KRE, VIX and the large-bank proxy are green; HY OAS and T10YIE are missing. The public overall state is therefore DATA_INCOMPLETE and deploy status is watch: prepare and maintain the list only, with no automatic trade. Green means no deploy trigger; yellow means prepare/watchlist only; red means a human review of the existing staged cash-bullet plan; deep red means a crisis-playbook review.

7. Data health and method boundaries

Per-item status: KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, KBE, LQD and SPY each use Yahoo query1 adjusted daily bars dated Oct. 30 (fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no); FMP quotes and the independent finance lookup succeeded, with all threshold-critical listed-price differences <1%. ^VIX uses Yahoo query1 at 19.42 dated Oct. 30 (fallback=no, missing=no, stale=no); FRED VIXCLS is missing after direct-CSV timeout and one retry. BAMLH0A0HYM2 and T10YIE are missing after the same bounded per-series failure; HY OAS is also public DATA_WITHHELD. Blocked source: FRED direct CSV timeout for all three series. Unused fallbacks: Yahoo query2, FMP history and Stooq.

The exact FMP MCP namespace was discovered and called first. It supplied all ten listed-security quotes and the ^VIX index quote. One-day and five-day returns are computed locally from consecutive observations in one Yahoo adjusted-close series. Volume ratios divide latest volume by the preceding 30-session mean, not vendor open-to-close changePercent. Each listed-security series has 152 valid observations, nonzero price denominators and no split-like anomaly. Sources: FMP Market Data ↗, Yahoo Finance Chart ↗, FRED HY OAS ↗, FRED T10YIE ↗, and FRED VIXCLS ↗. No personal accounts or positions are included. This report is not investment advice.