ETH 日次レポート

ETH's ratio valuation is modest, but trend confirmation and current structural inputs remain incomplete. This report refreshes dollar closes from FMP and preserves the true dates of on-chain observations.

1. Data health

FMP MCP daily history is available for ETHUSD, BTCUSD, BMNR and SBET through October 9. The batch live-quote endpoint explicitly returned ACCESS DENIED; it was not retried. Historical closes are labeled accordingly. FMP lacks MVRV/on-chain fields, so CoinMetrics is the fallback for those fields. Its October 9 00:00 UTC observation is over 24 hours old: STALE_CRITICAL. Current staking, burn, L2 capture, ETF flows, treasury holdings and diluted shares were not fully verified and remain DATA_MISSING.

2. Price regime and structure

SMA change is (current SMA200 / SMA200 180 days earlier − 1) × 2, computed from one FMP close series. Other vendors or slope algorithms are not directly comparable. Price is above SMA200, but slope is below -5%: TRANSITION. Prior five-day persistence is not claimed as newly verified. Five-year relative-price percentile and L2/burn structure are unavailable; structural health is incomplete rather than mechanically scored zero.

3. Multiple anchors

Coverage is insufficient for a defensible total. No precise aggregate score is manufactured from missing inputs.

4. MVRV explanation

CoinMetrics MVRV ratio: 1.068934; percentile 35.16% and mean 1.161383 across 1,826 five-year observations ending October 9 00:00 UTC. The aligned on-chain USD price was $2,486.2368. Realized price is $2,325.90, calculated from the same-timestamp price divided by MVRV. It changes with coin transfers and is not a fixed support line. The ratio is explanatory, has zero weight, and does not replace MVRV-Z.

5. Independent horizons

• Tactical, 1–4 weeks: the seven-day decline and ratio near 0.030 call for daily-close confirmation.
• Cyclic, 1–6 months: price above SMA200 does not negate a falling average; fees, burn and relative strength must confirm valuation.
• Strategic, 6–24 months: staking economics, value capture and dilution remain key research variables. Low MVRV alone cannot resolve them.

6. Conditional trigger levels

Research conditions retained from the existing framework: fresh MVRV ≤1.05 with price holding SMA200, or price above $2,700 with ETH/BTC >0.032, would merit further review. Reduction confirmation requires a completed close below $2,500 and ratio <0.030; only the first condition currently holds. A close below dynamic SMA200, roughly $2,130, with slope below -5%, is the trend risk line. Structural red lines—relative percentile <10%, negative real yield, L2 capture <2%, or long-duration burn decline >70%—are unverified where inputs are missing. No automatic trade is executed.

7. Treasury equities and scenarios

Returns use consecutive closes, not the vendor's open-to-close changePercent field. Current ETH holdings, cash, liabilities and diluted shares are not synchronized, so ETH-only NAV, total NAV and mNAV remain DATA_MISSING. Scenario formula: ETH holdings × scenario ETH price / contemporaneous diluted shares, followed by 0.75×, 1.0× or 1.2×. An old July denominator is not presented as today's precise share count.

8. Cross-asset context

ETH remains weaker relative to BTC. Both dollar closes are above their 200-day averages, but both averages have materially negative slopes. BTC strength does not establish improved ETH value capture.

9. Sources and conclusion

FMP ↗ supplies dated closes. CoinMetrics ↗ supplies the missing on-chain fields. BMNR disclosure ↗ is a reference to be refreshed before any current NAV calculation. The conclusion is trend unconfirmed, valuation coverage incomplete, continued observation. Older estimates are not relabeled as today's complete score.