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NewsMaterial3 min readDisconfirmAI Editorial

DBS Group CEO Tan Su Shan: AI Supply Chain Has Two-Year Safety Window as Capital Shortage Approaches

Tan Su Shan, CEO of Singapore's largest bank DBS Group, argues that AI infrastructure investment is shifting from capital abundance to scarcity. She notes that US capital markets have concentrated global funds into bets on AI growth, but this will tighten once users demand returns. She estimates companies in the AI supply chain have approximately two years of safety before facing capital pressure.

2026-10-19 19:50 GMT+8

At a dinner in Bangkok, Tan Su Shan, CEO of DBS Group (Singapore), offered a progressive assessment: AI infrastructure already faces shortages in memory, chips, and power, and capital shortages are next. As head of Southeast Asia’s largest bank, she directly observes global capital flows financing AI construction projects. Her core estimate is that if you are anywhere in the AI supply chain, you have roughly a two-year safety window before conditions change.

The mechanism behind this view is capital concentration. Tan Su Shan points out that US capital markets have a unique ability to funnel global funds—from sovereign wealth funds to private investors, institutions, and retail—into a concentrated pool for growth companies. "No matter how much money you’re losing, it’s okay. In the bond market, no matter how much you’re spending, it’s okay," she said, describing how global capital has bet on AI growth stories over recent years. However, "when these dollars are massively sucked into this concentrated bucket, there will come a point where people need to question the returns."

She sees a key difference between this situation and the 2008 global financial crisis: this time, investors can see the weakness coming. The 2008 crisis struck suddenly, whereas current markets are signaling ahead through bond pricing. "The bond market has spoken," she said. "I’m demanding more returns for the kind of risk that we’re taking, both on the AI front and the US fiscal deficit." More discerning buyers are starting to demand risk-adjusted returns, which she views positively.

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A specific observation is the changing financial role of hyperscalers. Tan Su Shan noted that many hyperscalers are tapping the market for financing before their credit ratings get downgraded. "They’re moving from being massive cash generators to becoming massive cash guzzlers, and that in itself will be a massive pivot." This means the free cash flow model that previously supported AI investment narratives is changing, with financing needs increasing rather than decreasing.

Tan Su Shan holds a relatively optimistic view of this adjustment. She believes the private credit market is also adjusting, which is not a bad thing, so she hopes to see an equilibrium. Her stance is not predicting a collapse, but describing a transition from capital abundance to tightening, along with observable signals: users demanding returns, the bond market repricing risk, and hyperscalers shifting from cash generation to consumption.

Her two-year time window is an estimate by an experienced banker based on current financing pipelines and capital commitments, not the output of a quantitative model. She explicitly acknowledges, "When the party will end, I don’t know." This uncertainty is part of her argument: visibility does not equal predictability. Markets are speaking, but the specific pace depends on when AI users truly begin to demand returns.

Sources

  • semafor.com↗
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