US October CPI Rises 0.4% MoM, Beating Consensus; December Rate Hike Odds Climb to Nearly 10%
US October CPI rose 0.4% MoM and core CPI 0.3%, both exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates. Consequently, market bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December jumped from 0% to approximately 9.8%, driving up Treasury yields.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data on November 10, 2026, showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month in October, higher than the 0.3% consensus estimate surveyed by Bloomberg. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month, also surpassing the expected 0.2%. This marks another upward trend in inflation following a significant 0.6% rise in September.
Component details indicate that the shelter index rose 0.3% in October, accounting for over thirty percent of the monthly all-items increase. The food index increased 0.5%, with food at home up 0.4% and food away from home up 0.5%. The energy index continued to climb by 0.7% after a 5.2% surge in September, driven by a 1.0% rise in gasoline prices. Notably, due to missing data collection during the 2025 government shutdown, the BLS could not publish 12-month percent changes for most series.
Following the release, financial markets quickly repriced the Federal Reserve's policy path. According to CME futures data, as of the afternoon, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December meeting rose from 0% to 9.8%. Simultaneously, U.S. Treasury yields generally increased, reflecting heightened investor concerns about sticky inflation and its impact on monetary policy. This shift signals pressure to revise the previous trading logic based on expectations of cooling inflation.