UK AI Minister Admits £400 Billion Economic Boost Figure Came From Google-Commissioned Report; Internal Estimate Is £120 Billion

UK AI Minister Kanishka Narayan recently admitted in a parliamentary answer that the £400 billion economic boost figure widely cited by the government over the past two years primarily originated from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by consultancy firm Public First (now PF Global). Narayan stated that the government's own latest assessment projects an AI and data investment benefit of between £55 billion and £140 billion by 2030, with a central estimate of £120 billion—significantly lower than the previously promoted £400 billion.

This disclosure highlights issues regarding public policy reliance on industry-funded research. While government departments and agencies used the £400 billion figure to calm fears about job losses and economic crashes caused by AI, officials had access to the lower internal estimate since at least November 2025. Skills England, a government agency responsible for apprenticeships, continued publishing the old figure four months later.

Jonathan Dupont, head of economics at PF Global, explained that the disparity partially stems from changed views on AI adoption speed. Their 2023 model assumed faster technology uptake, whereas current government estimates are based on slower real-world adoption rates. Dupont emphasized that their research was independent and all judgments were their own.

Critics from opposition parties and regulatory bodies have raised concerns. Conservative peer Lord Holmes noted that the government should have clarified the data source earlier, as billions in public funding depend on robust data. Labour MP Dame Chi Onwurah, chair of the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, argued that overstating technology benefits undermines the case for digital transformation and called for greater transparency.