StoneX Global Macro Strategist Vincent Deluard: Bear Market Signals Hidden by S&P Highs and Asset Rotation
In this episode of The Meb Faber Show, StoneX Director of Global Macro Strategy Vincent Deluard explains his shift from bullish to bearish on stocks. He analyzes tax collections, real oil costs, and European debt crises, suggesting exposure to the yen, Korean won, and UK equities.
Episode 655 of The Meb Faber Show features Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX. After years of being bullish on the market, Deluard outlines why he is turning bearish. He highlights that while the S&P 500 hits record highs, over 70% of U.S. stocks trade below their 200-day moving average, warning that this divergence must resolve either through bottom catch-up or top decline.
Deluard shares his preferred macro indicators, arguing that tax collections offer a more real-time gauge of nominal income growth and potential inflation than GDP. He also recalculates global energy costs, stating that WTI crude prices understate the true cost of oil when including Asian refined-product premiums, transport, and insurance, suggesting the world is effectively paying $150 to $200 per barrel.
Regarding asset allocation, Deluard compares Europe to 'uglier' Japan in 2012, arguing that aging populations and social spending force a weaker euro to manage debt crises. In contrast, he notes Japan is exiting its debt crisis, making the yen an attractive defensive hedge. He also points to South Korea's current account surplus pressuring its currency and UK pension fund divestment creating opportunities in British equities, recommending ownership of the yen, Korean won, and UK stocks.