SoftBank Shares Halve from Year-High as OpenAI Funding Shortfall and Arm Earnings Weigh
SoftBank stock has fallen 50% from its year-to-date peak, driven by concerns over OpenAI's reduced fundraising success and upcoming Arm Holdings earnings.
Shares of Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group Corp. closed at ¥4,481 on November 1, 2026, marking a 50% decline from their year-to-date high of ¥9,048. This sharp correction reflects a broader market reassessment of the artificial intelligence investment thesis, particularly impacting SoftBank as a key stakeholder in the sector.
A primary driver of this sentiment shift is the reported outcome of OpenAI's latest funding round. Media reports indicate that OpenAI raised $11 billion, significantly below its initial target of $30 billion. Furthermore, the company's valuation was set at $1.25 trillion, lower than the previously targeted $1.4 trillion. This shortfall is interpreted as a sign of tightening AI capital, directly affecting the perceived value of SoftBank's portfolio.
Pressure also comes from Arm Holdings, another major asset held by SoftBank. Arm's stock has dropped approximately 54% year-to-date ahead of its upcoming quarterly earnings report. Analysts expect revenue of $1.38 billion, up 21.4% year-over-year. Any indication of softening demand or delays in AI chip adoption could further drag down SoftBank's share price.
Technically, SoftBank's stock is approaching a 'death cross' pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. Current support lies at ¥4,334. Some analysts suggest that a break below this level could lead to a decline toward ¥3,000, though these are speculative technical projections rather than confirmed facts.