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NewsTopic · SpaceX数据中心建设Material4 min readDisconfirmAI Editorial

SemiAnalysis: SpaceX Greenfield Data Center Could Be Built in Five Months, New Target Compressed to Four

SemiAnalysis analysis suggests that SpaceX may be the world's fastest data center builder. The completed MiniHard project was built in approximately five months, and the new Gun Range site targets a timeline of about four months—far below the industry standard of eight to twelve months. This speed is driven by Tesla's modular mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) manufacturing, the repurposing of rocket launch sites and chip factory campuses, and a flexible power strategy combining energy storage with gas generation.

2026-11-04 04:44 GMT+8

In a paid analysis released in November 2026, SemiAnalysis put forward a core judgment: SpaceX may be becoming the world's fastest data center builder, even outpacing its Chinese counterparts. This judgment is supported not by a single project, but by a set of cross-verified data points—the retrofit of Colossus 1 took 122 days to complete 150 MW, the retrofit of Colossus 2 was shortened to 91 days for 210 MW, and Project SPAM, which broke ground on October 5, 2026, targets bringing its first batch of computing power online in December, potentially breaking its own record again. Regarding greenfield projects, Memphis's MiniHard has already been completed in about five months, while the newly purchased "Gun Range" plot, located just south of the Tennessee state line, is expected to take only about four months. The industry typically considers an eight-to-twelve-month construction period as reasonable for greenfield data centers; SpaceX has compressed this by more than half.

Where does this speed come from? SemiAnalysis identifies three layers of mechanisms. The first is campus reuse. Starbase, SpaceX's rocket manufacturing and launch base in Texas, is traditionally used for spacecraft assembly and launch preparation. However, from clearing the ground at the end of August to entering full vertical construction by the end of September, the campus now simultaneously hosts two data centers, and SemiAnalysis judges their scale to possibly exceed one gigawatt. TeraFab—Elon Musk's planned 100-million-square-foot, 10+ GW chip factory project—actually initially started as a data center before pivoting to chip manufacturing. SemiAnalysis believes it is now likely rejoining data center functions, potentially offering capacity for third-party rental. The second layer is Tesla's modular MEP equipment manufacturing. SemiAnalysis believes Tesla is producing prefabricated MEP equipment for SpaceX, bypassing traditional supply chain delivery bottlenecks. This is analogous to Crusoe self-producing switchgear, but on a much larger scale. The third layer is the flexibility of the power strategy. Instead of waiting for traditional grid interconnection approvals, SpaceX uses a combination of truck-mounted gas turbines, large-scale energy storage, and later grid integration. SemiAnalysis tracks over 8 GW of behind-the-meter capacity, with Colossus 2 currently deploying an energy storage system nearing 6 GWh, which could become the largest single-site energy storage deployment in the United States.

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The power issue is not without gaps. SemiAnalysis points out that after signing binding agreements for the Southaven power plant at Colossus 2 in July 2026, the legally operable nameplate capacity will drop from 2.7 GW to 1.24 GW by July 2027. Subtracting the approximately 1.2 GW of grid connection leaves a gap of about 1.3 GW between computing capacity and 1.24 GW of nameplate power generation. Considering efficiency derating and total facility load, the shortfall could reach 300 MW. SemiAnalysis believes this gap can be bridged in three ways: ultra-low PUE design (approximately 1.10 to 1.15), differentiated power demands for inference versus training clusters, and orchestrated scheduling of storage and gas—where gas turbine cycles charge the storage, and storage supplements baseload during peak periods. Additionally, some clusters require high availability for customers, while others are used for internal training and can tolerate fluctuations; SLA tiering itself can release total capacity.

Boundaries that must be retained: SemiAnalysis has identified a capacity path exceeding 9 GW, but the full 13 GW has not yet been confirmed. The judgment on construction speed is based on cross-referencing satellite imagery, local filing documents, and supply chain information, representing proprietary model outputs from a research institution rather than independently verified facts. The 13 GW figure itself comes from Elon Musk's statement at SpaceX's first earnings call; SemiAnalysis deems it feasible but acknowledges it depends on whether power approvals, equipment deliveries, and construction execution can continue to match. The purpose of the TeraFab data center—whether for self-use or third-party rental—has also not been officially confirmed by SpaceX. SemiAnalysis only infers from recordings of meetings with local officials that representatives did not rule out the possibility of third-party leasing.

For AI industry investors, the practical significance of this analysis lies in repricing a variable: if a company can complete greenfield construction in five months and retrofits in 91 days, then the bottleneck for AI computing supply will no longer be construction cycles, but chip availability and power approvals. This compresses the time from capital expenditure to revenue recognition and means that ecosystems possessing vertical integration capabilities (Tesla manufacturing, SpaceX construction, xAI usage) hold a structural speed advantage over cloud providers relying on external contractors and traditional grid interconnections. SemiAnalysis connects this judgment with its previous analysis that contracts with Anthropic and Google have turned SpaceX into the most profitable neocloud provider. It believes that if the 13 GW target is achieved, the corresponding annual recurring revenue will exceed $300 billion.

Sources

  • newsletter.semianalysis.com↗
  • tomshardware.comTom's Hardware↗
Topic

SpaceX数据中心建设

SpaceX正试图以创纪录的速度构建全球最大规模的AI数据中心网络,其2027年容量目标已从10GW上调至约13GW。据SemiAnalysis分析,SpaceX在田纳西州孟菲斯的Colossus集群及得克萨斯州的Starbase等地实现了…

4 steps1 piecesUpdated 2026-11-05 01:09

How it got here

  1. 2026-09-18TechTarget报道指出,SpaceX Colossus 1仅用122天建成,Colossus 2耗时6-8个月,展示了其利用现有工业基础设施和绕过电网许可瓶颈的能力。techtarget.com ↗
  2. 2026-10-08Yahoo Finance报道,因孟菲斯地区设施发生中断影响Grok模型和客户,SpaceX重组数据中心建设运营,由火箭和星链部门工程师取代xAI管理层,增加备份电源和冗余冷却系统,可能导致建设速度放缓。finance.yahoo.com ↗
  3. 2026-10-20Tom's Hardware报道,马斯克在SpaceX第三季度财报电话会议上表示,ASML等供应商将加速向Terafab芯片工厂发货,目标是在2028年Q3-Q4实现量产,并确认2027年底达到13GW AI算力的雄心。tomshardware.com ↗

What is still unsettled

  • SpaceX重组后的管理层能否在保持4-5个月建设速度的同时,解决此前出现的可靠性问题和宕机风险?
  • 面对NAACP诉讼导致的涡轮机功率削减和电网连接延迟,SpaceX如何填补Colossus 2预计超过300MW的电力缺口?
  • Terafab芯片工厂是否真的能在2028年实现量产,从而摆脱对外部晶圆厂(如台积电)的依赖?
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