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NewsMaterial3 min readDisconfirmAI Editorial

Richard Windsor: Slowing Growth at Anthropic Casts Doubt on $2 Trillion IPO Valuation

Richard Windsor, founder of the independent tech research firm Radio Free Mobile, points to data from Anthropic’s updated S-1 filing indicating that a retreat in corporate 'tokenmaxxing' caused Q3 sequential growth to plummet from 144% to 47%, returning the company to operating losses. He argues that the previous prediction of $400 billion in revenue by 2027 is unrealistic. Combined with OpenAI’s cost advantages in compute and a competitive landscape where models lack a moat, he considers the $2 trillion IPO valuation overly optimistic, suspecting the actual pricing may be closer to $1.5 trillion.

2026-11-04 14:37 GMT+8

In his latest analysis, Richard Windsor, founder of the independent technology research firm Radio Free Mobile, provided a detailed interpretation of Anthropic’s updated S-1 filing, putting forward a core judgment: the $2 trillion IPO valuation is becoming overly optimistic. Windsor previously spent 11 years at Nomura Securities, where he was responsible for equity research covering the global technology sector, before founding Radio Free Mobile to focus on independent research into digital ecosystems.

Windsor highlights a key fact: Anthropic’s Q3 2026 revenue was $16.96 billion, representing a 46.6% quarter-over-quarter increase, but this growth rate is far below the 144.4% seen in Q2. More notably, Q3 operating profit shifted from a $974 million profit in Q2 to a $567 million loss. Windsor attributes this sharp deceleration to a specific mechanism—the retreat of 'tokenmaxxing.' He believes that by the end of Q2, corporate financial controllers realized that token consumption costs were exorbitant and implemented cost controls to prevent massive bills.

The reader value of this explanation lies in linking an seemingly abstract slowdown in growth to observable changes in corporate behavior. Windsor argues that while this state of affairs is perfectly normal, it means that predictions circulating earlier this year claiming Anthropic would exceed $400 billion in revenue by 2027 were nothing more than fantasy. Citing Reuters reports, he notes that Anthropic itself has adjusted its revenue target for 2028 to $190–200 billion, implying that 2026 revenue might be in the $60 billion range and 2027 around $120 billion.

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On the cost side, Windsor notes that Anthropic’s total spending commitments have reached $895 billion, with $448 billion due by the end of 2030 and $70 billion in the next 12 months. He considers this figure reasonable—if 2027 revenue reaches $120 billion, compute costs would be approximately $90 billion, leaving $30 billion for other expenses, which could allow the company to break even in 2027. However, Q3 compute costs rose as a percentage of revenue from 48.1% in Q2 to 58.2%. Windsor suspects some price discounts may have been accounted for in this number, which also marks the first quarter where the higher compute prices Anthropic pays to xAI ($37.7 billion per gigawatt) hit the profit and loss statement.

Windsor further points out an accounting treatment issue he suspects: Anthropic offered $600 million in price discounts in Q3 and shifted to cheaper model variants, yet gross margins remained at 85.7%. He speculates that some discounts may have been classified under US GAAP as sales and marketing expenses rather than cost of goods sold, thereby inflating gross margins. He explicitly states that this is his suspicion rather than a confirmed fact.

The competitive landscape is the core basis for Windsor’s valuation judgment. He argues that there is no moat between models; league tables show limited capability gaps among vendors, meaning a price war with OpenAI in 2027 is likely. RFM Research estimates that OpenAI holds a more favorable position regarding compute costs than Anthropic, allowing it to profit at price levels where Anthropic operates at a loss. Windsor wrote: 'For me, this is the key risk to the Anthropic proposition as a public company, and as such I would want a large discount to the valuation to compensate me for bearing this risk.'

Based on this analysis, Windsor suspects the IPO pricing may be around $1.5 trillion, rather than the $2 trillion discussed in the market. He acknowledges that Anthropic and its backers may be unwilling to accept such a discount, but he chooses to wait and see—'I am still sitting this one out.' It should be noted that Windsor’s assessment of OpenAI’s cost advantage comes from RFM’s own research rather than public data, and his expectation of a $1.5 trillion pricing is personal speculation rather than confirmed market information.

Sources

  • radiofreemobile.com↗
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