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NewsMaterial2 min readDisconfirmAI Editorial

OpenAI's Actual ARR Is $20 Billion Lower Than the Widely Cited $70 Billion, Misleading AI Valuation Comparisons Due to Differences Between Gross and Net Revenue

The Financial Times reported that OpenAI's annual recurring revenue is approximately $20 billion lower than the widely cited figure of $70 billion. Analysis by Newcomer points out that this discrepancy stems from OpenAI reporting net revenue (deducting cloud partner commissions) while Anthropic reports gross revenue (including partner channel sales). Investors comparing the revenues of the two AI companies are effectively comparing figures based on different accounting standards, a confusion that directly led to a sell-off in AI sector stocks.

2026-10-10 00:41 GMT+8

On October 8, The Financial Times reported that OpenAI's annual recurring revenue (ARR) was approximately $20 billion lower than the previously widely cited figure of $70 billion. Following the news, AI sector stocks were sold off on Thursday. However, analysis by Newcomer on October 9 indicated that this was not simply a case of numerical falsification, but rather a confusion between gross and net revenue metrics.

OpenAI has long complained that its revenue figures appear weak compared to Anthropic's due to differences in calculation methods. Anthropic's gross revenue includes income from sales of models through cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud, even though these partners take a percentage cut; whereas OpenAI reports net revenue, which is the actual income after deducting partner commissions.

When The Financial Times obtained the latest revenue figures for OpenAI circulated as part of its current funding round, it made them headline news—$20 billion lower than earlier reports. Although the report itself explained the difference in accounting standards, the market reaction had already formed, and AI sector stocks were subsequently sold off.

Bloomberg later reported that OpenAI expects to reach $70 billion in annualized revenue by the end of the year, provided this figure is calculated on a net basis rather than gross. Investors and customers generally believe that Anthropic and OpenAI are roughly neck-and-neck in terms of revenue.

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Newcomer pointed out that sophisticated investors should understand the difference between gross and net revenue, but in an environment lacking transparency, this understanding was overshadowed by market sentiment and media headlines. Financial commentator Dan Primack wrote: "This OpenAI/FT stuff is the sort of thing that would be eliminated if both it and Anthropic go public. Apples/apples GAAP accounting for all to see. Rather than drip, drip cherry-picked financial leaks."

Natasha Mascarenhas of Bloomberg pointed out that a lack of transparency is also at the core of the tranched-round valuation issues: "If multi-tranche rounds are the new standard, then sharing the valuation for each tranche should be the standard too—instead of misleading employees and the public into thinking a company…"

Newcomer concluded that deals at multiple valuations are becoming normalized, and vague presentation is one of the reasons. If true valuation figures are not clearly disclosed, the risks faced by investors, employees, and founders are real.

Sources

  • newcomer.co↗
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