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NewsMaterial3 min readDisconfirmAI Editorial

Marc Schröder, Co-Founding Partner at Maschmeyer Group Ventures (MGV): AI Mega-Series A Rounds Mask Series A Contraction; Seed Sizing Should Be Backed Out from Series A Thresholds

Marc Schröder, co-founding partner at early-stage venture capital firm Maschmeyer Group Ventures (MGV), points out that while over 70% of the more than 114 global Series A rounds exceeding $100 million in 2026 went to AI companies, U.S. Series A deal volume fell approximately 28% year-over-year in the third quarter. The conversion rate from seed to Series A has dropped from over 55% for cohorts prior to 2020 to just 24% for the 2023 batch. He advises founders to size their seed rounds by working backward from Series A revenue thresholds and to prioritize building a replicable sales process.

2026-10-29 19:00 GMT+8

In the first three quarters of 2026, global startups have closed at least 114 Series A rounds of $100 million or more, with more than 70% of those deals going to artificial intelligence companies. For most seed-stage founders, this headline serves as a warning. According to Crunchbase data, U.S. startups closed 272 Series A rounds in the third quarter, a decline of approximately 28% compared to the 377 rounds closed a year earlier. Seed funding held up relatively better, dropping from 1,059 rounds to 984. These massive funding rounds obscure the reality that the actual number of completed Series A rounds is shrinking significantly.

Marc Schröder is the co-founding partner and managing partner of the early-stage venture capital firm Maschmeyer Group Ventures (MGV). In an article published on Crunchbase News, he cites insights from Andy McLoughlin, a partner at Uncork Capital, who told Crunchbase News that Series A investors now expect annual recurring revenue (ARR) between $2 million and $3 million, sometimes requiring $4 million, and that the timeline from seed to Series A has stretched beyond two years. Crunchbase data shows that the median U.S. seed round was approximately $3 million last year—three times its 2018 level. However, only 24% of companies that raised a seed round of $1 million or more in 2023 successfully progressed to a Series A; for the 2024 cohort, this ratio fell to 16%, down from conversion rates of 55% or higher for cohorts through 2020.

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Schröder’s core recommendation is to size your seed round by working backward from the Series A threshold. If a seed round cannot support the company in reaching the Series A revenue requirement while leaving a six-month buffer, taking a smaller seed round is actually the better strategic choice. He cites the example of Atomic, a supply chain planning software company founded in New York in 2023. In April 2025, Atomic raised a $3 million seed round—at the median level—led by Madrona Venture Group and DVx Ventures. Approximately 17 months later, it closed a $12.5 million Series A led by Madrona and Klass Capital. This demonstrates that a larger seed round is not a prerequisite; the key factor is the ability to meet Series A standards within a reasonable timeframe.

Schröder further notes that the current Series A threshold is primarily a revenue threshold, which makes it fundamentally a go-to-market problem. His observation is that most seed-stage companies possess stronger products than sales motions. He advises founders to identify which venture funds with assets under management between $100 million and $500 million typically lead Series A rounds at their stage, understand when those funds are closing, and begin sending progress updates to the appropriate partners a full year before formally initiating fundraising. On the sales front, he emphasizes that a company generating $2 million in ARR with a sales process that a new hire can execute is a better Series A candidate than a company generating $3 million in ARR that relies on founder-led deals that cannot be replicated by others.

It should be noted that Schröder disclosed MGV’s own business model in the article: MGV provides portfolio companies with a workshop called 'Sales Jumpstart,' using a proprietary matrix to assess the company’s current state and gaps, followed by coaching across modules such as outbound outreach, qualification, profiling, funnel management, objection handling, hiring assessment, compensation plans, fundraising, deck building, storytelling, and investor introductions. This conflict of interest aligns with his advice direction—emphasizing replicable sales processes—and readers should consider this context when adopting his strategies. Additionally, Crunchbase data suffers from reporting lags at early stages, with seed round amounts often increasing significantly after the end of a quarter. Therefore, the conversion figures cited reflect samples already entered into the system, and the actual full picture may differ slightly.

Sources

  • news.crunchbase.comCrunchbase News↗
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